A quick correction/drop on Nifty Index?!


#1

While analyzing the Nifty charts, indicating a sudden drop on Nifty index level , out of curiosity i am writing here , one of my chart indicator is indicating that , Last time my chart indicator under study displayed the same thing and Nifty index dropped from the level of 11700 to 10000 level , in 2 months period , will that happen again ? please share your chart studies , analysis.


#2

Firstly, 11761 does not seem to be a double top. If it was so and a big fall was to ensue, it would have started already.

Since index is doing timepass or consolidation for weeks now, I am guessing a big fall is out of the picture.


#3

Historically Index "time pass " in other words " consolidation or "Distribution " caused drop in the index levels. and i am not considering the " double top " formation.


#4

bull spotted , lol


#5

It can fall after few months, but what I am saying is this is definitely not like Aug-Sept 2018. And right now I dont see cues or signals of a big fall.

April no chance of good fall, and May being election month, again I doubt it before election results come out.


#6

Haha actually I am very big bear :bear:

But I always try not to get trapped, most retailers in market lose money due to being bearish in wrong time.

Example - Everyone was bearish in August 2018 and missed out to cash in when actually market fell the next month


#7

Since double top has been made we cannot jump into conclusion that markets will fall rapidly there will be some support levels if the index keeps on breaking the supports we can expect correction. currently 11500-11550 looks strong support.


#8

I am also assuming 11500 to 11513 level to be a good support for Nifty index


#9

Most of the time . market reacts in advance to an events!!


#10

What do you mean? Market is pricing in BJP majority so you mean we can have hung parliament or BJP loss?


#11

This was the post created by me at that time , and later it was found to be a bull market correction .


#12

:slightly_smiling_face: i don’t consider news while analyzing the market and also politically neutral , in case of stock market :slightly_smiling_face:

Probably recent some state level elections may give some clues !!


#13

No but market does move on elections and market is not politically neutral that is why i am saying

Which event are you referring which can cause a big fall?


#14

" politically neutral " Its my personal approach , Market is different


#15

Yes so you mean post results, market can react adversely to good results. That is why I only talked about April and May. Means in near future I am not seeing big fall, June and later we will see then its too far.


#16

Correction is over due but this time nifty rally is different, this time FII buying in cash heavily and DII booking their profit. Once FII done with their part then DII will start , to take nifty past 12300 and BN 31000, and sensex 41000 , from there one can expect a down fall. Till then every 200-300 correction is a opportunity to buy .

Last rally in nifty is only circulation of cash from small,mid cap to nifty and sensex stocks by DII,Lic, fund houses.

12000 in nifty is likely by may 2nd week or before elections.

Only my analysis …


#17

i do think so, Present bull market take a lot of time to " U" turn , i think FII’s are thinking & sensing something , i think if the present Govt does not get majority by it self , FII’s reactions will be different, probably they will follow the chart indicators , what they are indicating presently.


#18

Agreed,but FII pumped their fund from Feb onwards, when our all the charts and indicators are in sell zone.
All our charts experts in TV crying sell on rise but FII liquidity pushed our Nifty and BN ATH.
They probably don’t follow charts, they pump mkts all over the world and then take away profits at higher edge.


#19

Traders , correction started and intensified , post your further opinions , will nifty quickly fall to 11200 level!!!
nifty


#20

Although it’s futile to predict, I think we all can attempt on what’s happening as on date. This is what I can see on Nifty:

  1. Traders behaviour: there is a contraction in progress meaning traders are selling.
  2. Investors behaviour: steady gap and smooth curve showing the confidence of investors. They are still buying.

This would mean if the price falls further investor will support and buy again. But this is ‘what should be’ behaviour not what’s going to happen.

Today’s 100+ plus point drubbing is not a distribution day; it lacked volume. For me it’s a still uptrend for market. Of course entry would depend on your time frame.