It is. Does it matter?
Whatās the fair value according to you?
Expand my previous post.
Well played Bears! Good job defending 23600 today. Weāll live to fight another day.
NIFTY closed at 23581. Congrats to expiry winners:
Thank you all for participating!
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Today?
He wants to pass on the bag to somebody else at higher level. So he may turn bullish today.
Or may be i passed on my bag to him. I booked my profit for the longs I took last week.
Thatās because nifty futures lost premium today. Options are based on futures ultimately.
This also.
It was at 40 points premium. Thatās lost. So even though spot is up 213 points right now, futures is up only 180 points.
Already done.
Some nifty etfs added just in case. Think of it like the first time you added after the dip from 25300. This would similarly be my first dip addition. F&O still heavy shortā¦ may reduce or rollover if tomorrow rally continues.
But today you got confirmation na by closing above 23600.
I added at every dip. Till 23000. For me it was about selling.
So? Iām not gonna go all in. Just like you add only like 1% every dip. Iām probably wrong more times than right. Doesnāt mean Iām gonna blow my account with my position sizing for my every prediction.
Oh. So it for investment purpose that you were relying on levels? Oh okay. I thought you were using TA for trading purposes.
Itās interesting to me. You use fundamentals for trading. That is you are short because you think nifty fair value is 18k.
And you are using TA for investing. 
You shouldnāt divide investing and trading or fundamentals and technicals that much. They all paint a cohesive picture, if youāre willing to see. Time is a continuum and not discrete pieces.
Donāt you as well? Why did you buy at 23k and sell now? Why didnāt you just buy and hold? Or, last time, why did you sell at 24kā¦was it? Then it went all the way upto 26k? It maybe random numbers to you, but there are reasons behind it. You said you donāt care about reasons and thatās fine. TA just attempts to predict the collective mind of such ārandom numbersā, where many buyers/sellers emerge. The attempt is only to increase the probability of being right. The actual result maybe right. Maybe wrong.
Because itās the extra quantity that I bought at 23k. Normally when I feel market is rightly priced I keep 50 percent equity and 50 percent debt. If it comes 1 percent lower then i add 1 percent extra equity. Now that way I had reached closed to 73 percent on equity as on Friday. So now I have to reduce that exposure as we go higher because valuation isnāt same at 23k and 23825. So I had to give up 4 percent. Now down to 69 percent. Give me 3 to 4 percent higher and i will get exposure to equity even lower. Give me 26k in March and I will get my exposure back to 50 percent.
Anways. We both donāt make sense to each other.
why 300 point down gift nifty
@Jason_Castelino , Thank you for sharing this .
Next hurdle for me is the right pricing of nifty (is it based P/E or some thing else ?) for the exit or wait for perc based profit exit .
They are combination of few fundamental things. PE is one of them.
My exits are just take 2 to 3 percent of the last buy price. For my calculations I use LIFO method to decide when to sell. I assume what I bought last is sold. Original qty is as it is. This time I took around 800 points. Donāt know why I waited a little longer than usual. Now gotta buy again tomorrow at hopefully gap down.
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Ugh! Who is paying 23k for this junk? Absolutely disgusting! 18k this week would at least be palatable.