I sold NIFTY MAY 16000 PE ( last expiry of May ).
Rationale:
Presently in deep red.
But the data suggests market will close above 16000 for last expiry.
Will this trade workout well ?
Anyone in similar trade ?
No one can tell for certain if a particular trade will work out or not. You should have bought a deep OTM put when you took the trade.
Now what you can do is either you can take delivery or you can sell the same put again next month or december month.
You should always have a plan B if plan A doesn’t work out. Hope doesn’t work here.
At what price did you enter the call?
Did you not hedge the options position with a buy leg since its a PUT and holding a naked PE short positions is a bigger risk compared to naked CE short.
Depends on how long you are ready wait and how much loss you are ready to see.
If you have enough funds then you can keep rolling over to the next month until it goes above 16k. Again know the risks associated and the most amount that you can lose.
How is naked PE short “bigger risk” compared to naked CE short?
context if you dont get me = Is Long Futures bigger risk than short Futures in NIFTY?
Most probably, Yes.
Look for an opportunity to exit, If you can survive booking that loss. And live to fight another day.
Anytime due to negative events/black swan a big gap down can happen (eg. covid, war, 2008 crash, dot common bubble), although not very common.
In such events, panic selling will mostly happen after a big gap down opening and usually VIX increases causing option premiums to shoot up. Panic buying usually doesn’t happen during big gap ups.
So always hedge your PE short positions compulsorily, although Its usually always best to hedge both CE and PE short positions with farer buy legs.
Dont only look for OI data since for far week/monthly expiries there is always high OI buildup in 500 intervals… eg. 16000, 16500, etc.
what is u r stop loss
if u r setup goes wrong
how much u r ready loss in the market
in option selling always use “credit spread” are hedge
my view there is support at 15500 it may recover from there buy don’t expect much.
if u still not convinced buy one put for support when market reverse at support exit .
are simile exit position "there is always next trade "
You still did not answer the question. “Bigger risk”, that is.
I am ready to be perpetually long than short in Nifty.
You may take a few odd examples but mine is purely mathematical point of view.
he can only be -16K points in loss( naked PE), on upside( with naked CE) he can be -1L points loss.
Risk is only in terms of points and if one is not hedged then there are ways of still arresting the shock.
Trade management is secondary.
Totally agree with this. I am long on nifty from 16600 and am least bothered about it going down. I dont mind seeing the max loss here.
Ppl fear mkt crash but from experience i have seen a big group who went short 11K around sep 2020 and kept rolling based on news etc etc
They exited post budget rally after that small decline failed.
So its very easy to count a couple of downside black swans bcos shock is single day but the death by thousand cuts is far more painful. Very easy to cheat the mind into thinking what we want to see.
but be very wary of naked CE over PE 
esp nifty.
How can take delivery?,it is Nifty.
He probably means booking loss and buying Nifty Bees or Index Fund to recoup whenever bounce happens.
Probably better to take equal lot(s) Long of NF instead of ETF/Fund on expiry but there is a lot of time to MAY end.
Either wait for bounce to 16K and exit while riding the drawdown. For short PE ok, would never suggest for short CE gone wrong.
If MAY end is negative, then, do covered call with Futures lot and ride out the loss until tgt level is reached.
can also sell otm CE of 16500 etc while in drawdown but need mental comfort for all this.
In oversold scenario, bounce/rallies can be very strong.
Margin reqd will be very less as opposed to Bees/Index fund etc ( Infact PE margin itself will be re-used ) plus additional 20-30K for short CE
Anyway, need to bear the mtm drawdown whether short PE is open or long Futures.
In 4 days the trade has reversed 
thats mkt.
Got my highest profit MTM till now
If you gonna panic again if nifty falls tomorrow then just close the trade.
Always be prepared for the worst.
I dont know why but i want to know if you are in deep trouble again. 
16000PE 19th may expiry increased by 1000% 
