Markets didn’t do much last week. Typical range-bound play with sector specific news. But something interesting was happening in one space — Crude oil prices
Crude prices have crashed last week
WTI fell -13% and Brent crude too fell 10%+ as rising interest rates combined with easing some of the supply concerns along with slowdown in demand from china due to their covid policy is weighing on the prices of oil.
Will market gain?
But, will it translate into gains for equity markets? Not necessarily
I’ve done a post on the same topic:
OMCs are major beneficiaries
With consecutive quarterly losses, Oil marketing companies like IOC, HPCL and BPCL have faced huge losses of late and this down move, if sustained may help improve some of the short term concerns of the sector.
Good news for Economy
Ultimately, this is good news for economy as fuel prices are one of the key determinants in inflation. Once inflation is stabilized, the focus can be turned to growth
Washington Post wrote an absurd article on how OPEC+ is open to increasing the production. Whereas throughout the year, they were just planning on cutting.
It caused a 6% fall to 82$ level in Brent, once Saudi denied this rumour…crude again bounced back to 87 levels
Breached these lows on the back of massive surge in covid cases in china and increasing concerns on demand slowdown. Brent is now near 81.5$ and WTI is near 74$
At 11 months low - Next big trigger would be OPEC meeting on december 5th
I think we’re getting to the point where the risk reward is getting favourable for a bullish position in Crude Oil. The points being -
1- Unrest has started in China and they can’t stay in lockdown for very long.
2- US SPR reserves need to be replenished.
3- The market has overestimated the inflation aspect and I’m in the camp that inflation is going to fall fast and demand destruction wouldn’t be as much as expected.
Indian crude oil basket as on 25th November is at $ 82.14 per barrel
Source : Petroleum planning and analysis cell’s website
Interesting to see that the effect of Russian oil imports on our overall crude oil bill is not as much as initially thought. Maybe the impact,at best might have been 5% discount to Brent oil’s price