"Carrying positions the next day in Nifty would have been rewarding or trapping?": An statistical perspective

3rd Jun 2019 to 10th Feb 2020

Total Trading days 172
Nifty Closed Positive 76
Nifty Closed Negative 96

If Closed positive, no of times it continued to open positive the next day: 50
If Closed positive, no of times it opened negative the next day: 26

If Closed negative, no of times it continued to open negative the next day: 31
If Closed negative, no of times it opened positive the next day: 65

If you carried your position intraday, no. of times you would have benefitted the next day 81
If you carried your position intraday, no. of times you would have caught on wrong side the next day 91

5 Likes

If Closed positive, no of times it continued to open positive the next day: 50

What do you mean by open Positive? Was the next day open was higher than previous close or next candle is green?

There could be chances where the open is low than the previous day but it closed high.

If means that the next open is higher than the previous day close.

By Open Positive he means the opening price of Nifty, which was higher than previous close. Nifty rarely opens at same price it closed the previous day, it’s either gap up or gap down.

Excellent analysis, but out of those 81 winning days and 91 losing days what most important is by how much Nifty gained or lost at opening bell, if on winning days Nifty gained 50 points and on losing days it lost only 25 we’d still be in net profit.

1 Like

Also if our view was always Bullish for next day irrespective of how market performed today we’d have still been on right side 105 times and on wrong side 67 times, again rather than how many times we would have been right what matters most is number of points gained on 105 occasions vs the number of points lost on 67 occasions.

1 Like

If you carried your position intraday, no. of times you would have benefitted the next day 81
If you carried your position intraday, no. of times you would have caught on wrong side the next day 91

Now forget about carrying intraday position forward, think about getting into position at the close of current day with bullish view the next day we would have been on the right side 105 times, if we gained 10 on those 105 occasions and lost 10 on other 67 occasions we would still be in net profit. Nice and rewarding strategy tbh, one just has to be patient through drawdown.

@Ashutosh2803

Look at this spreadsheet I created, it’s for both Nifty and Bank Nifty for past 1 year. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yVMYXnJM7DOXOPoagZUwNaRlsFCi8HTTjDvMvAZcyFY/edit?usp=drivesdk

Good data to ponder, this suggests positive open on 115 days out of 172 sample size is a 66% +ve opening. Here if we see the difference on % wise btw positive and negative gain on opening is the catch.

That’s why I went ahead and got into more details to get clear picture of by how many net points we gain, and results are highly impressive. There is also period of drawdown but in long run just like any other strategy this too is all about patience.

1 Like

Yea, i have seen the spread sheet. Thats some grinding work and gives deep insight. Just goes by the words of Mark douglas on " series of trades" mentality pays. Keep up👍

That’s a very nice analysis. I remember doing a similar analysis for previous years as well. Found almost the same results…

This is great work… Thanks Shubham for continuing this further.

1 Like