Lupin has broken out of the previous congestion zone with the increase in volume. It’s been trading in a tight channel for the last 2 months. As per the chart, it’s improved its structure dramatically in the second half today, opening the door for the gap at 680. Once, it sustains and closes over the gap we may even see a level above 700 in the next few sessions.
Rational for a breakout: Good chart formation and USD/INR closes above 80 which may bring fresh buying interests for the export-oriented counters like pharma & IT.
Pharma sectors and its stock charts are looking bullish but trying to figure out what can be the trigger for a sustained upmove as dollar rupee above 80 is a neutral news as most of the forex gains are offset by volume / margin compression due to slowdown and hedging.
yes true but see NIFTY bounced nearly 10% from the recent low but the pharma index is still struggling to start its move. Taking current global disturbance and rate sensitivity stocks at the short-term overbought zone, pharma may stand out as a defensive bet.
We’ve already witnessed a rally of around 10% in Nifty from the recent low of around 15180 on the daily chart where almost 80% Nifty stocks contributed. Banking and FMCG stocks outperformed more than the others.
From the chart given below, one thing is clear that we are slowly approaching to a range 16900-17000 where chance of profit booking will be high. As per the buying intensity seen in the last few sessions by foreign institutions and the RSI breakout on the chart, the Nifty may probably try to enter into that zone by July expiry in the best case. But considering the recent results posted by a few NIFTY 10 stocks of IT & BANK indices, we can estimate roughly that the price for NIFTY near 16750-16800 will factor in all positives for July expiry. So far, we haven’t seen any blockbuster results on a QoQ basis, most are posting inline or below street estimates.
It’s a writer’s own view on the index, it’s not a trading recommendation based on the view posted.
As we can see BN has made higher highs and higher lows on the hourly chart so the overall structure on hourly is very bullish. But to sustain its up move further above 37000 it must show retracement towards the given range. The strategy will be to buy on dips and must wait for the dips before this expiry.
As per the chart given, it’s clearly visible that bulls stole the show finally above 17000 after 3 months of weakness. We show the last two candles formed with strong gap up with the solid volume and RSI breakout. So, it’s a high probability that NIFTY may try to move toward the upper sloping trend line formed by three previous lower highs.
Our bias will be to chase the trend as long as the NIFTY spot holds above 16800 on a closing basis.
10 months of downward sloping trend line breakout has been seen today with the volume. The possible price target for the August expiry will be 340-350. The proper SL fits @289 for the fresh rally above 300.
Disc: It’s not a trading recommendation instead writer’s own views on a particular stock.
