Can someone explain what’s happening on today’s Sensex expiry?
Both calls and puts are up. Even the ATM straddle is trading above yesterday’s close.
It almost feels like the options market is broken…
Is this just extreme IV expansion because of the CAS, or is there something else ?!
What sensex does whole day doesn’t matter, what it will do around 3:27-3:29 PM is all that matters now unfortunately 
Exactly… This whole week I’ve just been observing the market. The technical indicators and setups I usually rely on have been completely off.
What happens post 3:15 only matters. Sebi Yojana.
its because of CAS and its 3% circuit limit for this short illiquid session, theoretically index can move ±3% which is very hard in normal session because of huge liquiditiy but easy in CAS session so we will continue to have high premium till volume picks up in cas session, till that SEBI should change circuit limit to .5%
It is good thing traders will stop thinking options like betting.
Umm yeah but to be honest I feel trading in the derivatives market with half knowledge is already a gamble…Add these closing auction spikes into the mix, and it starts feeling less like trading and more like betting on where the market will close. It takes away some of the confidence in your analysis and gives more importance to simply guessing the closing price
How many of your trades are profitable on expiry day ?
Its probably under 30% on expiry days. I mainly trade with swing setups, with roughly around 1-2 strategies for expiry.
79000 CE went from 162 to 337 and now it is 0.05.
