Future Revealed

General
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20 MAJOR RISKS TO GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS IN THE COMING YEARS (LONG TERM)

  1. Most people will stop buying cars in a decade-and-a-half ( a prediction that 95 percent of all US passenger miles traveled will be addressed by fleets, not individuals, by 2030).

  2. People will increase renting of assets (over buying these) because they will never be sure of where they would be living a few years hence.

  3. The cost of commute will become the ‘next telecom’ (virtually free, that is).

  4. Most cars will be made from recycled steel, as a result of which, ore companies will go belly-up.

  5. The large steel sector debt will not be able to be returned to banks.

  6. Electric cars, with around 18 moving parts compared with 10,000 for the usual petrol-driven variety, would accelerate the death of the automobile components industry.

  7. The demise of the auto component industry will affect the global alloys steel sector (including ore and ferro alloys).

  8. Oil behemoths will not be able to repay their loans if oil consumption declined (elimination unlikely).

  9. Electric vehicles will come with an unlimited warranty. Which means that after you once buy a vehicle, you would not need to buy another, ever.

  10. Oil-based economies (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Nigeria etc) will go into a crisis.

  11. Some of the funding coming out of these countries (read what you will into this) will disappear and the world will become a more peaceful place.

  12. Cash-rich automotive lubricant companies will discover there is nothing to really lubricate.

  13. 3D printing will even out the wage arbitrage between developed and developing nations.

  14. Robotisation (or artificial intelligence) will clean out jobs (as it has in the banking sector, where business has grown disproportionately faster than recruitment)

  15. A number of skills will become obsolete (microsurgical, for instance) because a robot will do it better.

  16. Renewable energy will kick-start a long-term coal decline.

  17. Large coal behemoths employing thousands will file for bankruptcy (already happening).

  18. Banks will become a concept rather than a place, banks will become more about systems than people.

  19. The world will move towards deflation arising out of an abundance of money and relatively limited spending.

  20. The new retirement age will become 50 years (average).

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Good Governance killing Jobs.

  1. Import of coal almost Nil. Related jobs lost.
  2. Digitisation killing jobs. For example if we need to send a cheque look the process. You need to put it in a cover and give it to courier. Courier fellow uses vehicle, while deposit you will again need to visit bank to deposit so again use vehicle. all this vanish with digitisation.
  1. Merging Banks will be Loss of Jobs.
  2. Power cuts reduced from 2015. Imagine you would be visiting twice to get photo copy of documents if there is no power. Same thing with similar activities.
  3. Govt. Solar push is killing Jobs in Thermal Power companies.
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OMG… Is this the reason for ever increasing number of stock traders. No entry barrier, no exit barrier.

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One of the reasons could be lack of investment options available currently . You can judge yourself… Eg you / your parent (s) retire and say get retirement benefits of Rs. 10 lakhs… Where do u think it has to b invested considering inflation and net returns…

  1. Inflation (felt by actual common and not cooked govt nos.of 3 and 4%) increases by 15% per yr avg … Irrespective of govt. And remember inflation is not in mind… Its real unlike those insensitive mindless politicians quotes
  2. Fd / rd returns… 7 to 9% max… Tax implications
  3. Gold… Crisis investment… Negative last 5 yrs
  4. Real estate… 1 rk flat in some rural area… Illiquid
  5. Pf/nsc /kvp etc… Stable at arnd 8%
  6. Insurance policies… 6 to 7% max (it’s used as investment option due to ‘assured’ returns)
  7. So pump money atleast part of it in mkt… Mf sip or direct

Fund managers r flushed with this liquidity… He doesn’t have to bother for others hard earned money…

Now in abv circumstances (forced) choice is urs :slight_smile:

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Regarding Inflation, 15% per year means 45% since 2014. How much you paid for petrol in 2014 and 2017.

If inflation is so high why Farmers are throwing Potatoes. Tomatoes, and Onions on roads?

Computers costing 20k to 40k same rates for last 20 years but you are getting better Configuration every time.

Even if we assume that inflation is 15% that is good for markets because Equities are linked to Inflation, so we can have evergreen long positions :grin:

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I think we cannot judge inflation by just looking at one or two product services. Take gold price or value of rupee againt dollar a decade or two ago. Housing rent education etc.

But the point. Inflation is the biggest wealth destroyer of savers & middle class.

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Inflation is a compounded effect, so it would 52% since 2014 :wink:

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Computers r not essential (even though we r becoming tech dependant) for living.
Look at the inflation of these things… (4 most necessary)

  1. Petrol in 2014… Arnd 60 per litre, now 80
  2. Milk in 2014… arnd 30 per litre, now 50
  3. Train pass… Around 200 for 60km, now 300
  4. Electricity per unit… Around 3.5 per unit, now 6-7
    See the increase in only these 4 very essential have around 50%+ which is what my point was abt 15%

I have not stated pulses and food grain as they have increased more than 100%

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Petrol in 2014 is 60 + govt. subsidy is more than 80. you were paying indirectly now paying directly.
Milk is priced less compared other items, Farmers are the less benefitted in the last twenty years. Look at salaries of Teachers, Bank Clerks, and Railway Employees and compare it with what Farmer should get. Still it is less.

Railways were spoiled by not raising the Ticket prices in line with raise in Salaries. 90% of railway revenue is going to Salaries now. Thanks to UPA.

Electricity is also same. T&D losses at 20% and Salaries still they don’t do their job. Yet Most Discoms are in Bad Shape with Huge debts. It is the mess created between 2004 and 2014. will take time to rectify it. fortunately now Govt is concentrating on T&D loss reduction and achieved 16%.

for the past six months pulses are coming down.

Govt were doling out sops to Govt. employees, and also Govt Employees inefficiency resulting in higher inflation which is again helping them by higher DA. they don’t bother to work improving on supply side control of inflation like Building Cold storage facilities, providing water resources etc. Things are working in better way now. At least in Andhra Pradesh, were T&D losses brought down below 10% and Water resources improved to great extent. But that needs to be replicated in every state.

Private investments are held up.Previous Govt. cleverly killed this Govt by bringing Land Acquisition Act 2013. Acquiring land becoming now extremely difficult now. Elections sops killing India

Farm Loan waiver is another story. that amount if spent on Water resources or Cold storage facilities inflation will be under control. as long as people expect money for voting things will be like this.

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Hari… Whatever d reasons maybe… Whether inefficient babus or previous govts. Fact is common man’s life has not improved… Getting worse. Govt goes begging in other countries for fdi fpi and hot money but can’t tap domestic route. If common man who is losing jobs especially in pvt sectors due to whatever stated reasons digitisation rationalisation etc. How can he contribute to d nation. Actually being d majority he has immense potential. So overall future is difficult if things remain d same way.

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Update

Many Industries working in Auto Engines manufacturing will be closed. Forging industry, Air Filter Industry, Fuel Injection mfrs like BOSCH battery makers like Amararaja and Exide started facing the music already. Many Lithium battery makers are entering now this will be loss to Amaraja and Exide.

Companies like India pistons, Forging companies, related machining industry. and it’s machinery manufacturers also affected.

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The flat prices of computers or even depreciation is not because of growing economy or anything good about economy. It is because of technology improvement and competition.
Whatever numbers the govt releases, most of them are fake. Even the GDP calculation has been manipulated to show good figures. A bubble will be burst soon and “India’s real economical growth” will soon come out.
Anyways, the topic of investing in others vs investing in mkt is a good one. Not every type of investment suits everyone but this is a good comparison though.

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How do you calculate GDP ?

Do you have any actual GDP numbers ?

What is the GDP growth of Japan, Germany, UK, US, France, China, and Russia ? You think these countries are doing better than India ?

The real DGP growth with respect to Inflation

Deduct inflation from GDP growth you will get real picture. Inflation at 11% GDP at 8.5% will this be good for you ?

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Rest assured economy under Modi Government is very sound. Short term disruption because of huge change in style of management of economy (Which were predicted beforehand anyway). India is going through inflection point. Big reforms do give us short term pain but expect huge gain over time. Give some time to Modiji he will do wonders.

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For real prosperity, GDP Growth must be higher than Inflation by at least 1.5%. Higher the better and Lesser is dangerous.

Let’s check History and compare Present.

2004
Inflation : 3.78%
GDP : 6.2%
Status : :white_check_mark:

2005
Inflation : 5.57%
GDP : 8.4%
Status : :white_check_mark:

2006
Inflation : 6.53%
GDP : 9.2%
Status : :white_check_mark:

2007
Inflation : 5.51%
GDP : 9%
Status : :white_check_mark:

From here on began the era of monumental scams where assets (stocks, gold, real estate) got inflated due to relentless printing of high denomination notes & black money brought from abroad through PNs, over invoicing of exports etc. This bloated up the real GDP growth & hiked up the prices making it unaffordable for common man.

2008
Inflation : 9.70%
GDP : 7.4%
Status : :x:

2009
Inflation : 14.97%
GDP : 7.4%
Status : :x:

2010
Inflation : 9.47%
GDP : 10.4%
Status : :x:

2011
Inflation : 6.49%
GDP : 7.2%
Status : :x:

2012
Inflation : 11.17%
GDP : 6.5%
Status : :x:

2013
Inflation : 9.13%
GDP : 3.2%
Status : :x:

2014
Inflation : 5.6%
GDP : 7.2%
Status : :white_check_mark:

2015
Inflation : 6.32%
GDP : 8%
Status : :white_check_mark:

2016
Inflation : 2.23%
GDP : 7.1%
Status : :white_check_mark:

2017
Inflation : 3.36%
GDP : 6.7 % estimate by RBI
Status : :white_check_mark:

GDP Second Quarter - 5.7% (After implementation of path breaking measures like Demonetization and GST to clean up corruption & black money in the economy)

It’s on how you read and how you remember things. Those who forget history are condemned to repeat it. It’s our Inadaptability to accept Change that Create Negativity. Adapt to the system of Transparency.

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Inflation rate reduced to half and growth rate doubled within a year ?

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Everyone work like Japanese without any increase in Wages. That is the meaning of developed countries. We are moving towards that. Whether you change or not Country is changing.

This is giving one message. Don’t spend Future income.

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Select 10Y

If you have doubts check RBI site. and nifty as well

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https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2015/04/18/indias-change-in-gdp-calculation-method-seems-highly-sensible/