Global Economy and Geopolitics

In the current context, this is an interesting read

Russian bank Tinkoff now offering to exchange rubles for dollars at a rate of 171 rubles per dollar. It was 83 before the European/US announcement about targeting the Russian central bank. Currency market formally opens tomorrow.

More here : https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1497987741354799108

Btw, Russian Ruble closed at 83 on friday :anguished: :scream:

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With all the newsflow in the weekend and russian ruble getting crashed by 40% in a day and most importantly west deciding to block Russian Central banks foreign assets and reserves (which has extraordinary implications for fiat currencies esp USD in the future)

Gold is hardly up 1.3% and Oil is up by 5% …Something’s missing.

Maybe we can have the ceasefire news soon (in next 48 - 72 hrs) ?

The stock market is often counterintuitive. It’s forward-looking but not always right. It’s smarter than everyone at times but at the whims of the herd mentality at others.

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Boys : I have these two black t-shirts which I will wear everyday for the rest of my life.

Also Boys :

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With Global funds exiting from Russia, Will we see inflows into markets like India or will we see funds going out of emerging economies and shift to developed economies ?

Another impact.

I might be 100% wrong…but I feel we will have the IPO in march itself or worst case in April 1st fortnight.

Consider this view as a hero zero expiry bet :grinning:

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Continues

Do check this insightful post from @Bhuvan to know in detail about the Russia- Ukraine Conflict

https://www.bebhuvan.com/a-little-less-dumb/making-sense-of-the-russia-ukraine-conflict/

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Interesting to see QUAD nations (Japan, Australia) accepting India’s stance in the current russian ukraine conflict and continuing to invest in India’s growth story.

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such geopolitical conflicts do happen from time to time. This can be a good time to accumalate.

I agree! Given the situation, the stability is also seen. Though it can be short term. However, accumulating good chips has never done any bad.

I don’t want to sound pessimistic but I think the ukraine russia event is just the trailer/beginning of the show rather than the end. The geopolitical risk is now a decade or more long event rather than a 3-4 month one.

Middle east (Saudi+ against Turkey+ , Taiwan v/s China, Ind n Pak …) The themes are just too many.

The golden funda for wars is pretty simple - Country wages war when its economy is in troubled waters. Thats the best way to distract ppl n screw them even more :face_with_monocle:

Lot and lots of developments have happened on the geopolitical stuff around us.

  • There’s extraordinary political and geopolitical turmoil in Pakistan. With Imran Khan accusing US to meddling in Pak’s politics and trying to change the current regime whereas the Pakistan Army is speaking another tone saying we are partners of US and EU and condemning Russian invasion of Ukraine. The known secret among many geopolitics analysts that Pak is basically run by both Army and Govt is now out in the open. Next few months (1-6 months) are going to be pretty interesting on this front. Do keep an eye.
  • Our another neighbour Sri Lanka is facing an economic crisis of its lifetime with emergency being imposed as their economic crisis is now leading to shortage in food and fuel and other essentials leading to public coming out protesting. A state of emergency has been imposed and most of the govt cabinet members are resigning.
  • Hungary’s Orban is once again reelected as the Prime Minister for the fourth Term. (Do note that Ukraine has singled out Hungary for their neutral stance in this current war)
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  • Euro drops below 80 rubles for the first time since July 13, 2020

  • Ruble against USD is now at 74, appreciating almost 10% against the dollar even if we look from pre -war levels.

Sanctions are kind of backfiring

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Things seem to be heating up between

  • Taiwan & China

  • Serbia and Kosovo

This seems like a big escalation again. War is nowhere near the end looking at current scenario.

Yeah. was tracking the same.

Immediate impact : Euro is breaching the parity against dollar just now. That is gonna have lot of implications to the geopolitics and global economy in general.