Has the broader market bottomed out?

Please share your views about the market/stocks.

Sugar stocks, power financiers and many scrips are now more than 30-40% up from their 52 week low since last 4-5 months… While many stocks have just been going side-ways

Has the broader market bottomed out now?

I think better to look sector by sector

Sugar was always a unique sector so it doesnt move with Nifty.

There are again some haloed sectors, whose stocks have come down 30%, and some people may do the mistake of considering them value buys

In general, I think midcaps/smallcaps have not bottomed out yet. There is still some more punishment to go. I think next number among midcaps is of those sectors which havent been punished fully in last one year.

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Interesting point of view. IMHO majority of the stocks in mid/small space have been beaten down to extent that now there is reasonable value in them especially if you consider/compare their prices Jan 2018…

I have analyzed each and every instrument very carefully and I think none of the stocks in the nifty 100 index has any potential for growth. Just imagine - the entire exchange tanks 1500 points in a week just because of a simple fuel price moderation or a rate hike by the federal reserve. A saturated IT sector works as if it wins lotteries every now and then. These are not investment grade companies, they are trying to survive and they will never be able to compete with the likes of Ali Baba, Google or Huawei. Those who brag about India’s fundamentals being strong in CNBC…well, they are quacks and you should never get sucked into their jargon.

Sooner or later the debt ridden US economy won’t be able to print any more money, at that point the world indexes will crash back to 20 year lows. At the moment they are simply trying to pass the risk to unsuspecting retail investors.

An asset class can only retain its value because of its rarity, it cannot retain value because of its make-believe market demand.


nice quote @holybull and good analysis

You have an interesting point of view. I appreciate it, but it is a very bearish one indeed.

I for one when I look at things around me, I feel very bullish. 10 yrs back no one spoke of consumer financing and life insurance, while today it is a burgeoning vertical. My native is a small village called Babai. There hardly people have air conditioners, I see this as an opportunity for next 10 yrs. Untill now people only spoke and bought of low priced Maruti cars and there is just 1 or 2 Honda city, I see this an opportunity for mid priced sedans in coming decade. Look at digital media consumption, in just 3-4 yrs an altogether new and thriving vertical of OTT video now exists. 10 yrs back people in rural areas didn’t even think about mutual funds or insurance services, while today they have started talking about it! We have such huge scope of financial services and products!

You cannot create money out of thin air, it has to come from somewhere else or the central bank prints more of it to generate fictitious growth. So consumerism is dependent on income levels and most of it comes from wages, the wages are dependent on how the industries function. Tomorrow if one sector crashes the incomes crash and the consumption will go down as well.

I don’t come across as a cynic but I simply don’t believe in Indian markets at this time. Three families control India’s wealth and they commit fraud openly. One guy was recently found guilty of fraud by the supreme court, he openly lies to shareholders and still manages to get defense contracts because of his political connections. This is the reality of the Indian economy. Like Lehman Brothers these two clowns might become a liability for India in the future: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-zuBqwmztk

@Dhruv_JC Are you new to the stock markets? Genuinely asking.

You seem like a long term investor, rather than a trader. In that case, you should probably be doing some fundamental analysis on individual cos. & looking at intrinsic value & margin of safety. (Possibly, forums over at ValuePickr would be a better place for such info).

Having said that, no one can say with certainty whether the broader market’s bottomed out. You take a chance, & risk losing money. If you are lucky/right, you make money. That’s the nature of the game.

Always have a stop loss. There’s always the possibility of Black Swan events. (I’ve heard value investors average instead of cutting losses, which is why I’ve mentioned having a stop loss specifically. I believe averaging is meant for investors who have truckloads at stake & cannot simply exit, unlike retail).


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Thanks Kidrow. The objective of this post is only to know what my fellow market participants feel like about the market at the current time.

The following sectors are in the Golden Cross territory with a steadily improving chart structure.

Choose wisely.

Thanks. I too follow Golden Cross, however, I do it stock specifically. Next long term buy on my radar is Manapuram based on golden cross. I’m only waiting (1 month to 6 months) for it to now retrace to this 50 EMA.

Any change in views?

Haha, actually Nifty wise I am not surprised today, infact all this was expected.

But I do agree the manner in which market has performed (not how many points it gained, but the way it did) does make it look like a pre-election rally.

I have simple stop loss of 11200 on Nifty, if it closes above this, I change my view on Nifty as well as Midcaps. Until then, all is expected only.

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Interesting to know.

There wasn’t some sort of general market disturbance in order to have market bottom-up story. Rather it is volatility generated by separate industries as it is normal that their price will fluctuate in line with general demand