13 days 
Today last. Tomorrow red. 
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Everyone thinks market is normal distribution, but like most things in life, it follows pareto principle. This is a good example of the same. And playing these fat tails usually make / break many in the market.
- Make example - Jhunjhunwala going all in with leverage on 1989 budget day turning 3 crore of his portfolio to 20 crore.
- Break example - LTCM blew up in 1998 with only 4 years of operation when their noble laureates had predicted such a possibility as once in 3.5 million years based on normal distribution.
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Well, this is also a normal distribution, just that the chart here is not taking into account the sign (+/-), and everything is plotted on the right side of the horizontal axis.
In fact, if plotted, pareto will also follow a bell shaped distribution, with meaty center (consequential events) and a long and rather thin tail (inconsequential events) - just like what you said.
Yes, off-course.
And … By “This” I meant 0.07% (13 days in a row).
I don’t know much stats now, but the guy i learned from said ( if i understood it right) that markets do not follow normal distribution. Unlikely things are more likely to happen vs normal dist.
13.99 
Updated. I guess it will be 14. Avg closing.
Edit. Done. 14 it is.
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I think it will take a lot of time to break the record again
Damn someone really wants to close NIFTY in GREEN everyday 
I think you’re confusing events with outcomes. 0.07% is a long tail event in the distribution. Doesn’t mean it’s not a normal distribution.
yeah, so one of the most important things a trader needs to do is to verify things himself rather than blindly believe - anything -
Now, i ended up not having to study stats for trading since simple things like median/avg/sum etc were enough to come up with a report. Maybe will look at it in future, but i don’t have time to verify this now.
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Just google “Is the stock market normally distributed?” and you can see what people say.
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If you are really interested, then get data and run tests on it and verify mathematically. Not just how it looks to eyes, there will be things that a normal dist conforms to.
Also as an aside -
No 1) takeway from that chapter was this - “The daily returns of the stock is a random walk, highly difficult to predict”
If random walk means that past does not predict future, then that’s not true. Its close to random a lot of the times, but not always. There are plenty of times when we have a tilt - when market is more likely to do one thing rather than the other.
I have multiple systems taking advantage of past behavior to make money - 1000s of trades over the last 4-5 years.
Its not very difficult to find basic edges in the market - things working for a decade +. There are challenges in extracting the edge and it could potentially break down in future and we have to manage all of that - but it works.
I am not confusing anything. And after all your portfolio outcomes matter more than the event. Isn’t it? It is the impact of the event (make or break returns outcome) that is captured in Pareto principle which looks like negligible bar on normal distribution. Its kind of looking at the same data but you wanna capture the impact of it.
Epic. Way to put it … Plus … those unlikely things (That happen more often - Fat tails) get ignored in a strategy based on normal distribution. Though they can have huge impact on portfolio.
@asen - I read the varsity article and the calculations. Its good for basics but only for normal market. The chapter ends at black swan. And it is here where Pareto principle begins. I think Mr. Karthik should add Pareto principle concepts to the same article as addendum or cautionary note. Especially when you start equating standard deviation with confidence level and in turn probably with money allocation. Because normal distribution is a leading cause of blow up for most quant strategies / systems left alone. Ask LTCM. Also check Nassim Taleb on Normal Distribution.
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What’s the streak for consecutive down moves 
for Nifty 50.
Is it 9 ?
3 consecutive days nifty ends in red. When was the last time? 
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3 down, 6 more to go… Will it happen ? 
Or you might end up posting this 
again, but this time only sooner.
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