How can we predict the nifty trend for a short term any suggestions ??
It’s Like Have you seen God??
If I can Predict I’ll put all my Capital.
Coming back to your Questions.
Global Cues are positive.
Domestic Views are also positive.
Quarterly Results Started.
Tomorrow Gap-Up Opening And will break All Time High.
You can find Nifty Trend using Options Data.
It may fail when news comes. Till then option data gives direction and strength.
Look for change in open Interest of different strikes.
Look at put options HUGE OI build up ITM strike and ATM strikes. This means support is shifting higher.
In Calls you see huge unwinding. That means resistance shifting higher.
See this as well.
You can also have a look at this
The opening of nifty depends on +global cues and the nifty futures traded on Singapore stock exchange. So may be there will be gap up opening but overall nifty trend seems to be positive mostly on the upside. But one thing now we have corporate earnings season which will decide the fate of market. But what about the trend when there is no corporate earnings no global cues ?? Then how to understand the trend ??
But is it always true for predicting the trend ?? Does option market controls the trend of nifty ???
On 13th Oct 2017 if you see 10200 puts OI increased by 14.8 lakhs. At the same time 14100 calls OI decreased by 10. Lakhs. What this mean ?
This is trend follow or follow crowd. If there no news flow options create direction to Nifty.
Other factors like long weekend holidays whether nifty is at peak, or PCR is above 1.6 may lead to profit booking.
For this week we have good news on many fronts.
Due to reduction in excise for Fuel inflation may not raise so there may be rate cut in December.
Trade deficit is at seven months low. These data indicates economy has bottomed in Q1FY18 itself.
This year there is plenty of rains. So food inflation also will not rise much.
FII added more long contracts on Nifty Futures.
Their net long positions on Nifty is rising from 50% on last expiry to 59%.
We may see profit booking else there is no negative signals.
Whenever Nifty Scales all time high our media and Analyst talk about valuation and liquidity driven rally
When Nifty was going below 9700 every one was telling it will go to 9200.
But if you at ground level thing are positive. Still people think about DEMO and GST in negative tone. But they ( DEMO GST) were the reason for today’s All time high.
See this also.
Also see this
Market Runs on Sentiments There is always something to bring the market up or down.
If there will be No Sentiments market will be in sideways. No Volumes, No Liquidity. And there will be No Trades and people will not make any profit or loss will end up paying brokerage only.
How to then find the change in OI in options data ???
see it is mentioned in the table.
Yes found it but can we calculate the percentage change in open interest from the option chain data ?? Then we can predict the range of nifty for that month
can not be calculated for whole month but can do for few days.