A few thoughts on the PoP (Probablitly of Profit) metric.
IIUC, that is not what it means, rather it is an over-simplification. 
Based on the post on PoP, it appears to be a composite technical indicator, calculated as…
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In the previous discussion about PoP, it was clarified that the metric does NOT account for
fundamentals, (other) technicals, historical price movements, any upcoming events, …
and is considered a metric to help quickly identify strategies with extreme odds based on current market prices. Not that PoP has any predictive/forecasting power (not even in the aggregate, not over time). @Sensibull can clarify if the same continues to be true.
Since, the PoP estimate is based on the Black-Scholes model, it would also be interesting to know how often does the model (and in turn PoP) end-up accurately forecasting the actual behavior of the Indian index option market? A quick online search lists several studies over the years [1] [2] [3], that describe instances where the model tends to mis-price options in the Indian market.
Based, on all these uncertainties associated with the PoP metric,
using it to calculate expected-value might not be the right thing to do.
Thoughts?