Need single logical reason

I want to know that inspite of such a mountain full of tension created due to launch of missile by North Korea how could market (global as well as Indian) manage to go up. It just defies the logic. Any thoughts :frowning:

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Looks like major short positions were initiated by retail traders which FIIs and DIIs cant digest

an extension to this- ‘Need single logical reason’ thread
Why is Bank Nifty so volatile in last hour of expiry day trading ? Any thoughts

North Korea has fired a 21 missiles sofar this year that is 2.5 missles (just averaging :star_struck: ) a month.

Probably NK not firing a missle for month may surprise markets :sweat_smile:

Since November2016, markets(all) hv been volatile(either towards upside or downside), everytime to the possibility of wht Trump wud do or wht Trump wud say. Everytime NK tested/blasted missile, markets reacted in anticipation of wht Trump might do or wud say. From August third week onwards Trump is not saying anything or not doing anything abruptly!

So, the single Logical reason for market resilience is that absence of the very contributing factor since Nov2016 for market volatility.

I believe even if NK bombs Guam teritory(independent US territory in pacific), market wont crash unless Trump unleashes his fury!

Coming onto BankNifty, Single Logical reason fr volatility in the final hour on expiry day is becos of the Culmination of ALL the accumulated Week/Month strategies.

As told by someone in a video about Brexit. It went against the large traders and they did not allow it to fall so market went up in the second half on that day.

Today market over reacted in India and the day before most people went long, look at premium of nifty Future. And also the countries which directly affected with missile launch are Japan and South Korea. Those markets were looking cool. So Indian markets too recovered. mfs are getting too much of funds and need to park it somewhere. So market falling is limited.

Most longs could have exited at the first raise after gap down. Then initiated shorts. But at EOD market still looks neutral to negative.

Be with the trend and make money. Buy options ( call in up trend and put in down trend - this money you should be ready to loose entirely ) which will be cheap for the ATM strike price. You will at least make good money. Be sure to square off by 3:25 to avoid ITM tax anomaly.

who asked for your not needed advice ?

You put a query “Why is Bank Nifty so volatile in last hour of expiry day trading ? Any thoughts”. Were you day dreaming when you posted this query ?

Screenshot (19577)
Their Weightage in NIFTY INDEX is 53.73%
If you Have Potentional to take them all down. The NIFTY will Fall drastically.

If These goes down market goes down if these raise market go Up.

I request you to read that query again and then read your answer. What made you to assume that I don’t know about CE’s and PE’s and that ATM strikes are available cheap near expiry and that I have never made money taking advantage of that and that I am not aware of higher STT on ITM options ?

Bro, Thats not the intent. We all know that trend is friend and buy calls in uptrend and so on etc. If u deeply observe what I and further Harshendra has pointed out … its about the weird movement expressed at certain point in the day or on a particular day. It becomes very difficult in taking decision when u see ur call price suddenly rush from 50 to 80 and then to 20 in matter of 5-10 seconds. Thats what our point is ! What I conclude is its better to stay away in case of such dubious times ! Thanx :slight_smile:

@sumit_singh12 fake

Today markets spooked by mere threat of North Korea… Funny :scream:

Are there any instances where the market didn’t fall enough or didn’t fall at all/showed some resilience even when there is some bad news going around.I have been following markets since Sep 2016 and I am aware of few instances like Demonetization( I dont know if this is bad or correct.I am no expert) and the market reaction to it.Any long-term investors/traders can you please share your viewpoints here.I am just trying to understand market behavior to different events.

Today’s fall is due to below reasons.

  1. Rupees weakening means FII moving money out of India
  2. Market facing stiff resistance at 10150.
  3. Fiscal deficit already touched 90% and govt wants to loosen this year to push growth.
  4. Weak sentiments because of govt move to put stimulus, means it is acknowledging distress in the economy which is not going to improve immediately.

Market may see some more consolidation.

Disclaimer : I am long one lot Nifty Futures

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Biggest instances as far as I can remember recent times when it shud have really bleeding …

  1. Trump elected as us president… Us mkts go up
  2. Us Fed rate hike in jun… Still mkt hits record highs
  3. Indian gdp growth no. Slowest at 5.7% (don’t believe that 0.001%)… Still mkt up…

Hence I say… This illogical rally is only going to burst with today’s kind of petty and irrelevant excuses… Fii r shrewd foxes u remember… They r d mkt makers… Be cautious and stay hedged if all… All the best :grinning::+1:

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hmm, idhi matter!

Being in the hang-over of expecting selloff correctly & Being in the enthu to prove someone wrong, @vipulk forgot to check the facts correctly!!

After india markets closed yesterday Trump signs order aiming to cut off funding for North Korean missile program (https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/21/trump-to-make-north-korea-announcement-mcmaster-says.html )

After tht North Korea reacted before India market opened today.(https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/21/north-korea-foreign-minister-says-may-detonate-nuclear-bomb-in-pacific-reports-south-korean-news-agency.html )

A trader becomes matured with humbleness & empathy unless the wish is to remain stuck as an amateur!

Korea and Japan which are directly affected not fell like this. Today’s fall is more Indian macro sentiments turning negative.

Govt trying impress Foreign Rating Agencies by reducing Fiscal deficit. It is 4.5% in 2014 now targeting 3.2%. But now govt decided to loosen this means it will borrow more from market which will push up interest rates. Companies fund raising will be costlier. This news spooked market.

One good thing happening to Indian markets is depreciation of Rupee due to FII fund flows, this will help exports and reduce imports good for local Manufacturing.

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No bro… That’s not d intention. Its always better to err on d caution. Such a heavy weather was created by media saying mkts r only up and up etc. Thought some rationalisation should prevail. Mkt may shrug off this as well but that’s 50% probability. If my words have hurt anyone… Extreme apologies for that