If you could turn 50k to 2.7L and have confidence that you can repeat this - then you have nothing to worry about. I dunno, i don’t believe that such returns are possible without crazy risk and lots of luck, but looking at peoples returns in this forum, it seems many people can do it.
If so, just wait for 8 months and your problem will not be a problem. 2.7 becomes 10 and then becomes 40. Nifty options are very liquid so you can keep scaling up, With even half the returns you can have multi crore capital within a couple of years. So only task is to survive until then and keep compounding.
No job needed once you reach there. Can even take some risk, say your capital doubles to 5.5L in next two months, taking out 30k wont be an issue. So do that for few months and hopefully you can keep increasing trading capital like this. Full time trading is possible with good capital and some patience. If it does not work out, then look for job. Perhaps you can have a cutoff below which you pause and first get job.
Ya. Some time I think luck on my side. But I trust my setup.
Initially I started with 1000 rs./Trade risk but decided to increase my risk by 500 rs. On every 25000 rs. Increase in capital. Now I’m risking around 5000 to 6000 per trade. Day by day , money management is becoming harder for me. Today it self I lost 9000. .
Stop thinking in terms of rupees, instead look at % changes of capital or as multiples of initial risk per trade. This way it does not matter whether you trade with 10L capital or 10Cr. Not easy to do as you can see these numbers with broker, but that’s how we need to think, atleast within your own tradelog/tools.
Can you tell if irrespective of a strategy, system one uses it takes sometime to breakeven or there exists some strategies, systems which right off the bat will be profitable from day one?
And irrespective of the trading, intraday or delivery, how many trades can be considering as a good sample?
Only thumbrule that sort of works is to start / add capital when in decent DD. This ofc will fail if system stops working and you can miss out if system gets extended good period. And DD can still continue in time/price - but in terms of mental comfort and short term future performance (say next 3 months) this has always been easier for me.
Everytime i have added capital when system has been doing good, i have had to live with some losing periods soon after. That’s what happened with futures too along with other things.
Markets have cycles, we get patterns that work well for some time and then they start to not work as well and eventually it repeats. It almost seems markets are very efficient in this across systems, things work then they don’t and then they work. Perhaps people follow whats working recently and that makes things more difficult for everyone trading similar style, people with weaker system/too much risk then give up and those who survive and still made money make more money when things start working again.
Beyond that, risk is part of reward. I don’t think we can get straight line systems. You can look at some sort of arbitrage trades. Discretionary trading by very experienced and skilled traders might have better equity curves ( but i think people are much more likely to succeed with systematic approach), but no one can guarantee profits from day1. Best we can do is diversify.
For intraday with the way i trade, i prefer say around 10k trades over 10 years or so or more. That’s with stocks, so a lot of these trades will be correlated too. With index, its tougher to get that kind of sample, but something above say 3k-4k with NF+BNF might work. I don’t trade index currently. I had a system which made money in corona crash but since then returns have really crashed.
Smaller the sample size, more difficult it gets to separate edge from luck. But anyway future is uncertain.
While I reply to many of the users’ questions that I know answers to, I look forward to learn from some people who lend their knowledge and experience, and you are one among them, and you did not disappoint this time too. Thank you, appreciate it.
Thank you @GB26 for the supportive post. On second thoughts I felt my post was a bit curt and I did not mean it to be that way.
I will try to be more descriptive. Let’s see what we are presented with.
Converting 50k to 2.7L is not, by any stretch of imagination, a feat to leave what you have trained for (education/profession/employment) and get into trading.
On a capital of 2.7L, if you were to take out about 30k per month. You are looking at approx. 11% month on month profits just to stay afloat. That too after accounting for all sorts of costs and tax. Where does that leave you on an annualized basis? Think about that for a moment. Then think of all the companies that are able to generate that kind of returns.
Win rate means nothing when you hit a series of losers back-to-back.
@Zodiac does not have any backup or other sources of income. He is going all in on odds that are stacked against him. Is this wise?
4 months of experience does not make one an expert on anything. I don’t think I need to debate this especially since we are not talking about odd-balls but making assumptions based on reasonability.
@Zodiac – You have asked about things to keep in mind.
Here’s a simpler way of looking at things.
I am assuming you have an employment experience but not an entrepreneurial or professional experience. There is a massive difference in the psychology between these two categories of people. An entrepreneur or a professional themselves are the product/selling the product whereas the employee helps someone else sell their product/service. The employee is not trained for handling business risk the way an entrepreneur or a professional is. To help make this even simpler, just ask yourself the question if you can successfully run the business you are/were employed at on your own. The answer will hopefully be a torchbearer for you.
This post may not be the answer you were looking for but I hope it helps.
When you can articulate this good, why restrict yourself giving one liners. This even gives me something to think about.
If we can tell what we know or experienced, from which we don’t gain anything, and think that it can help a person even just a little bit, we should do that, we mean no harm.
Knowledge can be accumulated from ancient literature to the modern discussion boards.
I know 1:3 is hard to reach. That’s why I work only on breakouts and breakdowns. If the momentum is genuine or not a trap then 1:3 is posible in option buying. One more point is that I buy only monthly expiry for my execution (Since in weekly expiry one move against you can hit your sl easily because of fast theta Decay - This effect is more in call option buying).
I have fix sl and target. I always wait or 3R. But once is hit 2R I do not take the loss(I either trail my SL to brekeven or some where below the brekeven).
I am not a full-time trader but do you think a sample size of 4 months is enough to predict future returns?
If 30k is expenses why not take up a less stressful/part-time job which covers expenses considering you were earning 62k previously. It does not always have to be all or nothing. You have a strategy that makes money use it to your advantage.
Why restrict to 30k Dewansh? Make it big by taking small steps, why not 300K per month?
Full-time trading is possible when you are financially sound and have the right mindset to trade. You cannot trade without them, and both of them are crucial to be maintained. With experience, you will be able to maintain a better mindset, and with time, you must consider accumulating wealth through part-time trading and other means to trade full-time in the future. Until then, consider part-time trading as the best option.
I am giving you a different perspective. Trading is supposed to be passive income than an active one and the main reason to be here is leverage (though not to go rogue with it).
I certainly don’t think trading should be a full time one meaning not like sitting for every single candle of trading day of a year. Maybe trade for few months and leave rest. Or really depends , because look there are people working for 24+ LPA in tech sector throughout year and based on income taxes , they are working free for govt few days in years(well the more you make the more days you work free for govt ).
Now I noticed big business man, wealthy people, they are very smart. You will find that they don’t mostly exchange their time for money. Most of their income is passive. And they use their saved time to create multiple income streams.
So have a job, learn to spend less time in that job. If you are trading full time, try becoming ola or uber driver or some freelancing work which will give income but you will have time under your control. Nothing wrong in doing that. You might have some social life too.
You can definatly you can perceive trading as a full time career. There are many people doing that and a few famous people we know as well right. You are coming in the 10% of people who make money, thats not a small thing.
You need to know your strategy in and out, and when can it not work. If strategy starts failing do you have the skills to make new strategy or have you made and other backup strategies, ← you need to take care of this. Otherwise your career can just skyrocket from here.
Once you earn enough, and have money in the bank, there is no looking back right.
Many people have replied in this post and said money management and backup emergency fund, you must look at that too and manage your money.
After trading hours are over you can go ahead and acquire skills required for a job of your liking to have an backup plan. Its upto you and your medical condition.
Do you know the highest accuracy percentage ever achieved in world around is less than 60% (58.5%) by Jesse Livermore (again very old statement from Wyckoff while writing the book "Methods of Livermore); told unofficially -basically no documented record of some one having above 60% on long run).
by the way accuracy doesn’t drive account value but expectancy (combination of accuracy and margin- more weightage on margin). Most of big traders have less than 40% accuracy rate.
Do you know the greatest trader ever lived in India famously said multiple times he hasn’t met a trader in India. Last statement was as late as 2022. Shri Rakesh Jhunjhunwala- you can search in you tube speeches in FLAME University. When a maverick says he hasn’t met a trader till date in India, it has some meaning. Unfortunately people get into sold stories by sundries online. Nithin Kamath has repetadely on Zerodha blog (based on sizeable data of course he has!) , not even 1% makes positive return from trading over 2/3 years.
The investment bankers do not tweet, neither they trade publicly, nor they train people. It means trading discussions are largely done by those who rarely saw a dealing room or front office. Even middle office, this is like a hospital and medicine advisory run by people who are not doctors. If you ask they will tell Zuckerberg is drop out. Familiar story? This is done to make participation easier for people, if you sell the story as difficult no one will trade. If no body trades, investment banks collapse.
Do you know India our country has not managed to dare one trader who could be profiled for Jack Schawager Market Wizards profile. It just tells you two thing a. one set of people who are big enough who don’t need Schawager but that’s barely less than 0.5%. b. Balance is bullshit charlatans who don’t have any proof to be profiled.
A profession is carried out by a person which involves prolonged training and philosophy. My take is read trader’s profile to understand reality (Jack schwager series a good start).
But I trust my setup.
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