Nah. I am waiting for some gap to be filled. ![]()
I think weird TA like this is just a way for organized players to justify something to the regulators. I think the thought process is like this…“Oh… we bought calls and let’s take NIFTY 500 points up… But, first let’s draw a cup and saucer in case SEBI wants a clarification on why we bought today of all days…” “We bought puts, but there’s no bad news… and we can’t create bad news either…let’s just draw a head and shoulders before we drop it…”.
Gaps usually work intraday because unorganized retail is given the illusion of “oh… it went way up have to buy…”, i.e., greed, then organized players come into sell creating a “gap fill”. It works because retail unorganized players think “predictably”(Fear or greed) and it gives the good oppurtunity to make money by organized players. It’s the same technique you use, which creates the gap fill phenomenon. But there’s no point betting on it after day is over and especially not after a week or so.
Having said that, another main reason it works is, as more players(who believe in TA) and algos get involved, it becomes a “self fulfilling prophecy”… I think that’s why things like trend lines/support/resistances seem to work. Some traders look for “price action”…what they actually mean is “Let’s wait for some big player to make the action first… then I’ll jump in”. Essentially it’s “frontrunning” with a delay for confirmation. Nothing new under the sun.
I didn’t understand. ![]()
Let’s assume you had the power to move the index down to the last digit(via own money and entities, who’d obey you)… You don’t want to make money from institutions, retail is the easy target. If market gaps up(greed), you’d sell(as a contra trader) and if it gaps down(fear), you’d buy, this results in filling of the gap. Makes sense?
Today was a gap down with retailers panicking and you feel like screwing the retail to make some good money, you’d buy calls for peanuts in the morning and then move the index up, resulting in gap fill and try to fill the yesterday gap as well. But what if SEBI asks "why you buy today?
", you’d say technical analysis(gap must be filled… bla bla) and since you can’t find any good news, you pay moneycontrol to make up some stuff say, value buying to appease the retail investors from knowing the truth. Now, regardless of whether you agree that happened, if you assumed you are able to move NIFTY, does that sound feasible at all to you?
Still doesn’t make sense to me. Never mind. TA is something I fail to undertand. My bad.
What exactly doesn’t make sense?
Logic of this gap filling. I feel it’s just random. Market moves in waves and sometimes gap is filled. Sometimes it isn’t.
One guy here is waiting for 19500 just because gap is not filled. For me that doesn’t make sense.
what about my explanation that didn’t make sense?
Pretty sure with NIFTY, at least 7 outta 10 times, gap is filled intraday. Perhaps the easiest way to make money. Gap up, sell. Gap down, buy.
Explanation is fine. But not convincing to believe in gap filling.
How much have you made out of this?
But this looks like something what i do. Contra always.
You are tempting me to buy again today. ![]()
I try to do this, but I can’t… it goes against every fibre of my being to do this. I can’t even take profit when it gaps in my favor. Mental assent is different than emotions. That’s why I’m still in “barely profit”… nothing decent. Today I bought call though.
Totally agree. Finally one something we agree. I asked you because you mentioned it’s the easiest way to make money. Nothing is easy imo.
And me sold put. ![]()
0 dated? Selling put is even harder than buying call… especially on expiry day.
Feb month end. I always buy time. If I get direction wrong it shouldn’t cost me.
If it’s hard, it makes money. Only risk is rewarded. Option selling is risky.
0 day selling is more hard ![]()
Don’t want to be very rich or very poor. ![]()
Anyways for expiry day, I have deep otm short strangles with heavy size. ![]()
NIFTY on a one way street after gap up.
Buying opportunity ![]()
Not everyone has endless cashflow. Patience. Some can wait till “10% of someone paid”.Others can wait till “40% of what someone else paid”. Some may wait till 22k. Others can wait till 19k. If it doesn’t come that’s fine. Indians are known to be stingy in every market except stock markets
If all retail and DII became stingy, FIIs will have no exit at the top.
That’s why shouldn’t go all in. Even after being soooo bullish and buying on all dips I am only 52 percent long in equity of my total account value. And I add as little as 1 percent on every 1 percent fall. So when nifty falls 40 percent, I will have only 92 percent long. It’s not the amount of cash flow that’s important. It’s about how you stagger it. If you ask me which side i want nifty to go, i want it to go down. I want it to go up only after i am fully invested.
Not sure if you are an investor. If you are not buying now, you won’t buy at 22k also even if that level comes. You will end up buying at a higher price.
That higher price will still be lesser than present price. I add whenever I see a trend. It’s not 22k. If there’s signs of “reversal from 22k”, I add then.