Nah. I am waiting for some gap to be filled. ![]()
NIFTY has given 13 % CAGR from 2019 to 2025.
I don’t think nifty will go down to 19K unless something bad happens.
I think weird TA like this is just a way for organized players to justify something to the regulators. I think the thought process is like this…“Oh… we bought calls and let’s take NIFTY 500 points up… But, first let’s draw a cup and saucer in case SEBI wants a clarification on why we bought today of all days…” “We bought puts, but there’s no bad news… and we can’t create bad news either…let’s just draw a head and shoulders before we drop it…”.
Gaps usually work intraday because unorganized retail is given the illusion of “oh… it went way up have to buy…”, i.e., greed, then organized players come into sell creating a “gap fill”. It works because retail unorganized players think “predictably”(Fear or greed) and it gives the good oppurtunity to make money by organized players. It’s the same technique you use, which creates the gap fill phenomenon. But there’s no point betting on it after day is over and especially not after a week or so.
Having said that, another main reason it works is, as more players(who believe in TA) and algos get involved, it becomes a “self fulfilling prophecy”… I think that’s why things like trend lines/support/resistances seem to work. Some traders look for “price action”…what they actually mean is “Let’s wait for some big player to make the action first… then I’ll jump in”. Essentially it’s “frontrunning” with a delay for confirmation. Nothing new under the sun.
I didn’t understand. ![]()
Let’s assume you had the power to move the index down to the last digit(via own money and entities, who’d obey you)… You don’t want to make money from institutions, retail is the easy target. If market gaps up(greed), you’d sell(as a contra trader) and if it gaps down(fear), you’d buy, this results in filling of the gap. Makes sense?
Today was a gap down with retailers panicking and you feel like screwing the retail to make some good money, you’d buy calls for peanuts in the morning and then move the index up, resulting in gap fill and try to fill the yesterday gap as well. But what if SEBI asks "why you buy today?
", you’d say technical analysis(gap must be filled… bla bla) and since you can’t find any good news, you pay moneycontrol to make up some stuff say, value buying to appease the retail investors from knowing the truth. Now, regardless of whether you agree that happened, if you assumed you are able to move NIFTY, does that sound feasible at all to you?
Still doesn’t make sense to me. Never mind. TA is something I fail to undertand. My bad.
What exactly doesn’t make sense?
Logic of this gap filling. I feel it’s just random. Market moves in waves and sometimes gap is filled. Sometimes it isn’t.
One guy here is waiting for 19500 just because gap is not filled. For me that doesn’t make sense.
I would seriously question your mental state if that did make sense
. But, what I asked was: what about my explanation that didn’t make sense?
Pretty sure with NIFTY, at least 7 outta 10 times, gap is filled intraday. Perhaps the easiest way to make money. Gap up, sell. Gap down, buy.