For a follow up , after a 3 trading session of the week , it seems to be, Market is in a kind of distribution , FIIs are buying While DIIs are selling ,It seems Market is not in a hurry to move above all time high level. I think market drop further down , support for Nifty being at 11875 , while Nifty closed at its Resistance turned support. at 11917, For bank nifty support being at 30129. ATM Option straddles not yet turned in to positive, but Weekly expiry being very near , its better continue to hold the Straddles.
Trading Set Up for Banknifty on 06/11/2019
1. SET UP to Trade Nifty Bank.
2. Sentiments
- Global markets: Dow Jones future is Flat to Negative & Hang Seng is Flat to Negative.
- What is on News/TV comming earning result could be bad. The only way to trade is to Buy on dips only. BN could give big move anywhere above 30500/30600
- Positive News-flow:: Most results has come very good since last day. FM may push on real estate which can be positive.
- Negative News-flow:: Titan result can be overhang. Foreign mutual fund can be treated as foreign company.
- Bottom Line: Sentiments is very Much Negative. Sentiments are not supportive of on going Trend.
3. Game Theory ( Tug of war between Buyer & Seller)
- From where New Buying comes? A. Since Sentiments are Very Much Negative, the Outside Trader will postpone their Buying.
- From where new selling come? A. Since Sentiments are very much Negative, Aggressive short Selling expected from outside Trade. B. Trader's with Long Position- "Less" chance for Long unwind today.
- Will there be Resistance from Seller sell on rise? On rise-Since trend is not perfect!, There will be a higher number of Sellers at higher end which propels the market to go down on the intraday rise. Moreover, on Rise, a Buyer who wanted to buy has already bought. So Selling on the rise is a Dominant Strategy as more Seller & lack of Buyer on rise of this Downtrend Trending market
4. what I am going to do today (In bank nifty)
- Set Up: Today Bank Nifty Force set up is Not Supportive for Selling. So, Today is Bad set up to Sell. You should Avoid Selling.
- Sentiments: Sentiments is very Much Negative.
- Trading Edge: My Today Trading edge points clubbing Setup & Sentiments is -64 Point. Today, I 'don't have Any Edge', So I will ' Not Trade Today'. Or I will try to enter only at 30325 around.
- Entry on Edge: Sell- When BN is Between 30325-30418
- Exit on Fair price: Fair Price for Today's Trade is at least 30034.85
- Stoploss: One you get a entry, You should follow 70/100 point stoploss, without fail.
It's Significant intellectual property & New way to Analyse the Market which use Unconventional Instruments Like Behaviour Finance & Game Theory for getting clear & Unbies idea for Traders.
Abhikumar Patel
Twitter https://twitter.com/abhi_9392
[email protected]
My simple strategy of 200SMA/EMA crossover !
Today crossed 200SMA upwards at 30310 & high made 30689 ! 
2 Likes
maharajji… in which time frame
5 or 10 minutes.
Additionally you may use ADX (default setting).
Trading Set Up for Banknifty on 07/11/2019
1. SET UP to Trade Nifty Bank.
2. Sentiments
- Global markets: Dow Jones future is Flat to Negative & Hang Seng is Flat to Negative.
- What is on News/TV This really is not healthy. But Buy on Dips is best way to play.
- Positive News-flow:: Much awaited Reality fund will come for real estate sector. Positive for PSU bank,Reality & Housing finance compnay. Good number for Voltas & Mannapuram.
- Negative News-flow:: Minor trade war worry for us-china.
- Bottom Line: Sentiments is Mild Positive. Sentiments are supportive of on going Trend.
3. Game Theory ( Tug of war between Buyer & Seller)
- From where New Buying comes? A.Since sentiments are Mild Positive, the Outside Trader will Buy with very Mild Force. B. Trader's with short Position- "No chance" for short covering today.
- From where new selling come? A.Since Sentiments are Mild Positive, Outside Trader may Go short on Rise Only.
- Will there be support from buyers buys on dips?: On Fall- Since the Trend is 'Not Define', There will be a moderate number of Buyers at the lower end which propels the Market to go up from Dips. Moreover at Dips Sellers who wanted to sell has sold off. So buying on dips is the Dominant Strategy as More Buyer and lack of Seller at the bottom of This Non-Trending Trend
4. What I am going to do Today (In Bank Nifty)
- Set Up: Today Bank Nifty Force set up is Not Supportive for Buying. So, Today is Bad set up to buy. You should Avoid buying.
- Sentiments: SentIments is Mild Positive.
- Trading Edge: My Today Trading edge points clubbing Setup & Sentiments is 41 Point. Today,I will like to trade as per My Entry Level as per below.
- Entry on Edge: Buy- When BN is Between 30438-30345
- Exit on Fair price: Fair Price for Today's Trade is at least 30729.6
- Stoploss: One you get a entry, You should follow 70/100 point stoploss, without fail.
It's Significant intellectual property & New way to Analyse the Market which use Unconventional Instruments Like Behaviour Finance & Game Theory for getting clear & Unbies idea for Traders.
Abhikumar Patel
Twitter
[email protected]
Decoding one more secret !
On expiry day, BANKNIFTY moves +/- 200-400 after 1.0 p.m.
Trade in Future or for safer side convert it in Options to trade.
Note today’s Future price at 1.0 p.m. (backtest it).
(THIS STRATEGY IS SOLELY ON MY PERSONAL EXPERIENCE.)
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Trading Set Up for Banknifty on 08/11/2019
1. SET UP to Trade Nifty Bank.
2. Sentiments
- Global markets: Dow Jones future is Negative & Hang Seng is Negative.
- What is on News/TV Any dips is Opportunity to take freash entry. Moody's data is laggaed data. India is outperfom due to reforms. ICICI will see Sell on news. Second half may good.
- Positive News-flow:: Global backdrop is very positive & Domestic reforms is continue. FII buying is still continue.
- Negative News-flow:: Moddy's nagative report may dampen the mood.
- Bottom Line: Sentiments is Mild Negative. Sentiments are not supportive of on going Trend.
3. Game Theory ( Tug of war between Buyer & Seller)
- From where New Buying comes? A. Since Sentiments are mild Negative, the Outside Trader will Buy on DIPS only. B. Trader's with a short Position-"less" chance for short covering today.
- From where new selling come? A. Since Sentiments are mild Negative, Mild new short selling expected from outside Traders.
- Will there be support from buyers buys on dips?: On Fall- Since the Trend is 'Not Define', There will be a moderate number of Buyers at the lower end which propels the Market to go up from Dips. Moreover at Dips Sellers who wanted to sell has sold off. So buying on dips is the Dominant Strategy as More Buyer and lack of Seller at the bottom of This Non-Trending Trend
4. What I am going to do Today (In Bank Nifty)
- Set Up: Today Bank Nifty Force set up is Not Supportive for Buying. So, Today is Bad set up to buy. You should only trade as per Entry levels. or you should avoid.
- Sentiments: Sentiments is Mild Negative.
- Trading Edge: My Today Trading edge points clubbing Setup & Sentiments is 35 Point. Today, I trade as per entry level only.
- Entry on Edge: Buy- When BN is Between 30370-30277
- Exit on Fair price: Fair Price for Today's Trade is at least 30660.15
- Stoploss: One you get a entry, You should follow 70/100 point stoploss, without fail.
It's Significant intellectual property & New way to Analyse the Market which use Unconventional Instruments Like Behaviour Finance & Game Theory for getting clear & Unbies idea for Traders.
Abhikumar Patel
1 Like
Today 200SMA was below at open.
Crossed upward at 30550 & high made 30779 (profit 229 points) !
Very simple to trade. Keep watch on 200SMA & that’s all !
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@Maharaj - Could you elaborate more on 200SMA/EMA crossover. Does it mean using 200SMA & 200EMA alone.
Yes. You may use any supporting tool like ADX or W%R or OBV.
No trade if no crossover on any day.
1 Like
Do we put any SL?
it may lead to unlimited losses in case of unexpected bad/good news ; eg- 20th sept 2019 when BN Moved 2000 points in a day?
How do you handle this?
I generally don’t trade on such days.
If u are in, may be you can set a SL at 3x of the combined premium. Works well most of the times. Else take a SL hit and book losses.
I have all bank Stocks (CNC) in my portfolio, in same quantity as their weightage in Nifty Bank. Every Thursday evening I sell Nifty Bank (next week expiry ) ATM call option (now 30700) which premium generally values about 350.
Rough Calculation;- Total money required in selling 1 ATM lot=765000
{Scrips (CNC) equal one lot need money = 30700X20=615000 + Margin required=150000}
SO I earn 350*20=7k every week/lot. which is almost 1% of my investment.
Scrips in Nifty Bank (HDFC Bank, ICICI, Kotak, Axis, SBI) are the most stable and strong equities, so there are least chance to loose their value over the time atlest for next 10-15 Years.
Thus I make no significance loss in week. No need for huge margin blockage on month’s end moreover I’m not forced for physical delivery of the scrips.
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Hi Shivam, can you please share me more details on ur Banknifty strategy, want to try it out. With the ups and downs on the strategy.
This is wonderful and actually I was planning to buy 200 bankbees and write a call every week. I can simply sell the bankbees in case the market moves too high. But the problem is when the index (and the underlying shares fall 2-3% in a week and continue that trend for 4-5 weeks. I think a ten percent move is not unusual in nifty in a quarter. How do you protect from the possible downside? God forbid, if your stocks purchased for 6.15 laksh fall by 10% over 4 weeks, the call option with a strike price more than spot price at the time of your purchase will not give even 0.2% week. Please share your idea in greater detail as this is something that can be done without losing sleep and without being before the system all the time.
In an hour.
