There are few assumptions I take which may or may not work all the time but it has a decent probability of winning. At least from my limited period of experience in markets. (8 years)
India is an EM, and nifty will keep going up for at least 20 more years. This assumption is against most who keep telling me Japan has given 0 returns for 35 years. Let’s not get into details but there are multiple reasons for the same.
The obvious thing doesn’t happen most of the time in markets. So if all are expecting markets to go up, it may not really happen. If all are expecting 20k and lower, that too wont happen that easily. When we touched 25k for the first time, I sold my entire portfolio using nifty futures and brought down my net equity exposure to 11 percent. We did go another 1200 points higher from there. Same way I took my equity exposure to 94 percent when we hit 22k last week. Now what if we had fallen more. Nothing I will just wait thinking that I am a long term investor. Some day may be after 5 years I will get my levels back.
Most traders use TA for trading in markets. We also know that 90 percent plus incur losses. So the TA of 90 percent of them is wrong.
Yes. TA does work for a few who follow a system and do not take any discretionary decision.
Markets are not as complicated as some make it look in my opinion. We traders keep fighting with all the analysis and simple housewife who bought gold without any research, outperformed all of us for the last 1 year at least. Even index funds outperform most traders. Again some traders do outperform market benchmarks.
At any given point of time, there is 50 percent probability for market to go in either of the direction. It’s even higher than some of the TA strategies. Now I know most will talk about RR and all.
Your stop losses are my targets and your targets are my stop losses. I actually don’t have stop losses. I keep fighting my positions to a point I feel I can’t do it anymore.
There are few more assumptions I take but I can’t recall them to put it up here. Some work. Some don’t but so far in 8 years it has worked for me. Also it may not work in future.
About trolling. lol. why so serious bro? Chill. I was expecting markets to cool down around 24200 but then it’s above that as I type. I am wrong too. Troll me. Big deal.
My entire game is around net equity exposure that I play using cash secured puts and covered calls. I am now at 54 percent long and I will keep bringing it down as we go higher and higher against TA. If I get entry again great. If I don’t, I will still make risk free return of 7 percent per annum.
I do understand options really well. I won’t deny that. So I can see what’s priced in most of the time. Again this too fails 20 percent of the time.
I have told it before. The spot we see on screen is a lagging price. Futures and options give the price which is of future. And looking at premium last week I felt we shouldn’t cross 24200. But yeah it did. Also its monthly expiry and short covering can take us above 24500 too.
Disclosure out of sebi fear: Nothing that I have mentioned in this post and previous ones are any recommendations.
This is your assumption but not true when i was started investing using “Fundamental” i became poor , But really TA helped me Let me tell you that i am basically of a Swing trader , Option trading is not my main activity in Stock market , In Option trading its not required to follow TA , Time-decay will do the magic
Nope. Not my assumption at all. I stated what is evident in this thread,
which is - pointing out that there is no inconsistency between
Trolling TA (the way it is seen being practiced in public by a majority of folks)
and
Benefiting from one’s beliefs about how poor most folks are at TA (in aggregate)
Regarding my assumptions,
i assume that unless/until proven otherwise,
everyone on the internet is Idiotdumb “not-smart” money.
You ∈ Everyone
Jason ∈ Everyone
i ∈ Everyone
… ∈ Everyone
( Note: With this “strategy” i am not 100% right all the time. Far from it.
But i am right more often than not, especially when averaged over a large enough sample.
However, unlike Jason’s convictions with how TA is being practiced these days,
i haven’t figured out how to profit from this conviction of mine. Yet. )
Good that you made the switch i suppose.
However, i hope that
this anecdote is not an argument to challenge/refute that
there is a lot of dumbnot-smart money in TA around us.
This above assertion of yours, all it tells us is that
an earlier version of you happened to be worse at fundamental-analysis (in an earlier market)
compared to a more recent version of you at technical-analysis. (in a more recent market)
(that too only if we assume that there were statistically-significant number of “bets” carried out over a long period of time, and you haven’t been comparing 2 sources of randomly sampled noise under varying market conditions.)
Agreed that Trolling in not productive.
Not sure why Jason got into that mood recently.
Irrespective of the origins of Smart-Money vs. Dumb-Money,
it sure is a concise term to perfectly convey the thought that
most retail traders have no clue what they are doing. (that doesn’t stop some of them from making money though)
Not sure what you mean by any of this. please elaborate… (Are you asking something? Telling something? …)
I was just seeing the lighter side of it because the target was given so convincingly.
The word used was ‘inevitable’. From little that I understand, the word has a lot of conviction and certainty. Nothing in markets is certain. There is a clear difference between “nifty may go to 19500” and “19500 is inevitable”.
Anyways I didn’t think it would be taken so offensively because it was not even mentioned by a person to whom I replied. I just asked another TA guy if the lower target is now ruled out just to understand what the TA guys are now thinking.
Anyways I am out of this serious conversation where people get offended so easily. I will stay in Instagram only for lighter moments.
If you wish to, Please troll fundamentals, technicals, Astro, wave theory, gann numbers, OI, PCR …and markets and global economy in general like Trump is trolling us all
Trolling each other is all fun and nice if both parties are cool about it. Else it’s best to avoid.
@Jason_Castelino and myself troll each other a lot as well. I would call him a logical troll as he is a fun guy to discuss markets, economy and taxes in general …
@ST_Trading , continue the trolling don’t try to end it. Let it continue only thing is let it be accompanied with market talk.
Well now the reply’s to reply’s or responses are come to some conclusion , and let it be , but let me answer me or elaborate it , many people in the market , in my observations , the fundamental guys refer the SEBI reports, which says that in FNO 90% of the people will loose money but " not said that , those 90% of the people are in to TA " this is an assumption by the t rollers , who troll the TA SEBI never addressed or not want to address this issue , but made people who are less fortunate but having high aspiration , made to suffer by increasing margin’s , increasing lot size’s, People who are successful and are in 10% club are all having IT & CA or high paying Corporate Job back ground and they don’t have the money problem., the person who is having less fortune cannot do any hedging to his stock holdings , or cannot do " Cash secured PUts or Covered Calles ’ just because having less money , where as in US every one can do , simply because of no entry barrier. . Like i mentioned earlier i am not good in English , Probably the one You tube video by the broker Dhan with a SEBI RA ,i come across ,my opinions are also bit like that
why so serious bro? Chill. I was expecting markets to cool down around 24200 but then it’s above that as I type. I am wrong too. Troll me. Big deal.
)
