yes, I bought some for ELSS when market had crashed. In subsequent years market recovered and this buy helped. I also bought some when sensex was moving one way 20k+. Then this ELSS one around 12k i think among others. Thankfully i did not consider selling, and got to see both sides. I had seen bear market as a kid during earlier part of the decade ( before the multi year bull market) so maybe that helped.
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Bear market always helps. Falling market teaches a lot of things, and gives a lot of opportunities too.
I like when the market is down, so that I can learn and understand the reasons for such a state.
Exuberance is not always logical, there could be an element of blind greed in that, but a fall, a fear, has reasons, there is genuine emotion involved, to what extent that fear is justifiable is where the secret lies, and that is why it is simple, and not easy 
The chances of Nifty staying where it is today after 20 years is next to zero. This theory is suitable for the professors and nay Sayers who promote stuff but do not walk the talk.
The only chance of Nifty being around 20000 in 2043 is if a world war breaks out or extended deflation. I donât think investments would be a worry in case of world war.
Chances of deflation are very low simply because India is a growing economy. Unlike Japan, which comprises of many senior citizens, the median age of Indians is around 28 and the population is still growing. This age group loves to consume stuff unlike the aged population thus adding to the GDP.
If the GDP is growing, it means Indians are consuming which means companies are producing and goods are selling which means the companies are making profits. This will reflect in the share price of the company which will reflect in the index.
So, whatever the social media geniuses (including the professors) might say my money is on equity. Not just equity it is on Midcaps and Small caps. I donât know how to pick stocks (Not interested in learning too), so I prefer giving it to the experts - Mutual Funds.
My money is on active midcap and active small cap mutual funds.
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Add more. Always keep some money in debt funds for these crashes. I love these crashes. Itâs like you have sale of large caps once in 4 to 5 years.
Well letâs put the numbers:-
Government bond:-
Principal:- 18,000
Time :- 20 years
Return :- 1,00,000
1,00,000 / 18,000 *100 =~ 555% for 20 years
555% / 20 = 27% a year
Nifty index:-
Jan 2003:- 1089
Jan 2023 :- 18,165
18,165 / 1089 * 100 = 1668% for 20 years
1668%/20 = 83% a year
Gold
Couldnât get proper price data. Even goldbees doesnât give data past 2009. I referred bank baazar historical price
Jan 2003 :- 5600
Jan 2023 :- 52790
52790/5600 * 100 = 942% for 20 years
942% / 20 = 47% a year
Results:-
Equity index:- 83% a year
Gold :- 47% a year
G- bond:- 27% a year
Now this not a either OR question based on results. Asset portfolio allocation is AND question. So basically your portfolio has asset allocation which is based on %.
Equity is just another asset class like everything else. Itâs definitely not 100% of my portfolio and neither should it be for anyone. Its the most simplest investment compared to physical gold & real estate.
Think of it like equity is the frontal assault force with gold being rear gaurd. FD & bonds are augmenting force though they canât operate on their own. The enemy the central bank slowly stealing your PPP via inflation. Thatâs what I think. Itâs us vs them in long term.
Debt is canned food, debt is the ammunition in the times of market crashes, debt even becomes your frontal assault force depending upon the situation
The CAGR for bonds is 8.9% and for Nifty is 15.1%, for your calculation.
Ahh my bad. I just did a simple calculation without inflation just for reference.
Well that is the expectation but for very very severe uncontrolled crash gold helps, because the central banks always first reduce interest rate to 0 before going to second option of printing money. Itâs gold that helps here. When you lose most of your forces , you just pray that rear guard has your back.
Ohh btw by bonds I mean gsec bond or FD covered by DGCIC. I donât trust other bonds. They are like mercenary. Too much risk and can tumble you down when time comes. Even kattapa betrayed Bahubali.
Funny how all of us retail investors are in a big war with central bank.
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Gold is a separate asset class, and as such can be considered as a part of of overall PF, but it is said that even if used as a hedge in situations of market turmoil, the % of gold in the overall PF decides how good it can act, a 5% of gold in a PF of 70% equity and 25% debt wont do any good.
And at the same time, one cannot incline towards a gold heavy PF as it can underperform for extended periods of time, and unlike equity where we can make some kind of calculation as to how much to pay for, we have no control over gold price.
And as FD coverage has a 5 lakh limit, only way is Gsecs, if one is not interested in debt funds.
Come to think of it, there are worse situations we can be in, we have a relatively okay system, compared to some neighbors 
You have calculated simple interest. Who even uses simple interest for investments. Use CAGR for better comparison.
CAGR has no connection to inflation.
Please tell me am missing something.
I calculated that based on historical . Assuming equity, gold and bond performance is same as last 20 years I expect the same would play out for next 20 years but you are correct should have used CAGR.
You can buy 20 year maturity bonds and expect a certain return. How exactly do you expect to make returns for equity/ gold with the same level of certainty.
That was not meant for you, why did you reply?
Please be careful while using foul language.
This is a public forum sir.
I implore you to Google the meaning of every word i used ( none foul).
Okay, thank you.
No, thank you (Iâm the one being entertained).
Gold certainly will due to the fiat monetary system of printing currency out of thin air in long term unless you are comparing with US dollar. Equity is based on economy. India still has lots of spenders. It shouldnât be a doubt nifty & sensex will reach new highs though population decline after 2035 is certainly a concern.
All valid but are the levels of certainty of outcome for these 3 events equal (not even close)âŚ
In time frames of 7+ to 10+ years you can be sure. Atleast gold you can be sure unless you are expecting return of gold standard or collapse of nation. By equity I only refer to Index.
False.
How many times have Indices of the world gone sideways for decades: frequently (similar with gold)
How many governments in the world have defaulted on their loans (rare in comparison).