Nifty to 1 lakh!

I do. I trade in physical gold bullion too. The amount will be credited to your bank account after holding 3 percent gst since you are not registered under GST Act.

The price per gram shall be very close to what you see being quoted in mcx. Sometimes it’s even more because of higher demand in the market.

You are anyway selling naked puts if you deploy a cover call strategy. Hence my suggestion to trade spreads. If liquidity is ever an issue, ratios work great.

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Thank you for your suggestion. May use it if I find it beneficial. For now we both can hold our views on pros and cons. :love_you_gesture:

41% XIRR over 5 years is very good indeed. Congratulations! I could say it could be higher, but I wont :slight_smile:

You say you are risk averse, but you sell naked puts - I wouldn’t call anyone who sells naked puts conservative and risk averse. I call myself an aggressive trader but I don’t do undefined risk even on intraday trades anymore :sweat_smile: - because over time I have formed one important rule , do not allow ‘risk of ruin’ for even that “once in a decade scenario”, something like a war or a flash crash or shenanigans of some evil genius.

btw how aggressive are you with your naked puts (including intraday expiry trades) in terms of % of margin employed?

It’s cash secured. No leverage this is for far expiry.
So if I feel I should add 2 lots of nifty at 17k I just sell 17k put march expiry 100 qty.

On expiry days, I sell deep OTM strangles.

Will stay with this statement since am not levered. If nifty comes to that level I buy either futures or bees. I still don’t see a risk here.
Certainly missing something. Am I not ?

In 2012 Nifty crashed 15% due to fat finger flash crash, which is enough to trigger margin calls. If your expiry trades were active then, how bad would it have got for your account?

I don’t think options prices of all strikes get affected by such fat finger trades. Do they ?

For how long was it down 15 percent ?

nope, f&o didn’t reflect the index price at that time. Don’t recall any margin calls.

this is an excellent return (seeing as it’s unleveraged). Although, You’d get a more realistic number if you discounted 2020?

What I actually meant was - that such a move is enough to trip safe limits of many accounts now.


2017 Ethereum Flash Crash

On June 22, 2017, the price of ethereum crashed as low as 10 cents from around $319 in a matter of seconds on the Global Digital Asset Exchange (GDAX).

2022 European Stock Market Flash Crash

Citigroup took responsibility for the flash crash that took place on May 2, 2022, which caused some European stocks abruptly turn lower. Apparently, one of traders made an error when inputting a transaction (hence the name “the fat finger crash”), but soon after Citi identified the error and corrected it.

2015 NYSE Flash Crash

The floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) stopped trading for three hours and 38 minutes on July 8, 2015. Trading was quickly shifted to the 11 other exchanges, including the NASDAQ, BATS, and many “dark pools.” The NYSE lost 40% of trading volume as a result.

The cause of the shutdown is still unknown. It could have been linked to the closure of the Wall Street Journal’s homepage, or the grounding of United Airlines flights. Both occurred on the same day.

2014 Bond Flash Crash

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note plunged from 2.02% to 1.86% within a few minutes on Oct. 15, 2014.8 It quickly rebounded. The plunge made it seem like a sudden surge in demand for these notes. Bond yields fall when prices rise. It was the biggest one-day decline since 2009.9 Volume was double the norm.

Many blame the algorithm-based programs that are responsible for most of the trading in the U.S. Treasury, with estimates of 50% in cash securities and 60% to 70% in futures. An increase in electronic trading has reduced the bank’s involvement and over-the-phone orders. The combination of automation and high frequency trading can speed up any reaction in the market.

There was also limited liquidity in bonds available to sell. The market depth was unexpectedly low, even though the volume in the 10-year note was up.

2010 Dow Flash Crash

The Dow fell 1,000 points within 10 minutes on May 6, 2010. It was the biggest point drop on record, costing $1 trillion in equity.

A London suburbanite, Navinder Sarao, was sitting in his home using a personal computer at the time. Investigators found five years later, in 2015, that Sarao had made and quickly canceled hundreds of “E-mini S&P” futures contracts. He engaged in an illegal tactic known as “spoofing.”12 Waddell & Reed destroyed liquidity in the futures contracts as a result by dumping $4.1 billion worth of contracts.

The CME Group warned Sarao and his broker, MF Global, that his trades were supposed to be executed in good faith.

2013 and Other NASDAQ Flash Crashes

The NASDAQ is famous for flash crashes. It closed from 12:14 p.m. to 3:25 p.m. EDT on Aug. 22, 2013. One of the computer servers at the NYSE couldn’t communicate with a NASDAQ server that fed it stock price data. Despite several attempts, the problem couldn’t be resolved, and the stressed server at NASDAQ went down.

NASDAQ computer errors also caused $500 million in losses for traders when the Facebook (now Meta) initial public stock offering was launched. The IPO was delayed for 30 minutes on May 18, 2012. Traders could not place, change, or cancel orders. A record 565 million shares were traded when the glitch was corrected.

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:rofl: yes, I’m aware of what flash crashes are

Just sharing information on the forum :slightly_smiling_face:

I don’t think the exchange will let such things happen (would bankrupt most brokers)- only a guess. So, I wouldn’t worry about any >3sigma events.

(I only take fully hedged positions but I’m quiet a paranoid person)

My thoughts are similar. Nevertheless I am still not going to load far-otm naked puts to the brim. Doing that will keep me out of my comfort zone. Yes, I am paranoid too :upside_down_face:

No. I’m a short to medium term investor. My holding period is few weeks to few months.

This also means you have to keep 17L in cash/ cash equivalent for it to be a cash secured put. Now while the returns on the margin blocked can seem good, you need to consider the return on the margin + idle cash. (We have had a similar discussion on the scalability of cc, and familiar with your xirr working). I am sure you must not be selling multiple 100 qty CSPs with different expiration using the same 17L cash kept aside to secure it.

For me, it just doesn’t work. To sell 10 lots of nifty puts at 17k strike, one needs to keep aside 85L idle (or any liquid instrument) to cover it.

And on the subsequent arguments on flash crashes and other surprises, I have just internalized this:
Risk is what’s left over when you think you’ve thought of everything .”

But if it works for you, that’s something phenomenal. 40% cagr with a meaningful capital over 5yrs is unheard of - so congratulations for that!

It’s coming out of debt funds. So am utilising the same funds twice. Again using these funds for selling deep OTMs on two expiries per week.
Already mentioned a lot of adjustment I do in other posts. So yeah.
I know some day what am doing won’t work.
Let’s see.

41% a year on average, for over 5 years is fantastic.

I wonder, how much could it have been if you were less conservative.

I can go either ways. So no regrets. :love_you_gesture:

Curious, has this approach beat the buy and hold? (Assuming you don’t participate in f&o)