# \[POLL\]\[2026-10-27\]Where will NIFTY close this month's expiry?
**URL:** https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444
**Category:** Trading
**Created:** [September 29, 2026, 11:23am UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444 "2026-09-29T11:23:42Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 8
### Author:  [@TradeB2B](https://tradingqna.com/u/TradeB2B)
#### Post date: [October 2, 2026, 5:57am UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444/141 "2026-10-02T05:57:48Z")
> [@VijayNair](#):
>
> Plus there are fundamental worries that seem long term too, AI/high tax/rupee deval/FII selling/IT-sector-prospects etc, all of which is plastered everywhere…
rm vijay sir - same quate told by sandeep tandoon quant mutual fund - this time is different -
same message told by fund manger - 2000 to 2020 is diffrent -2020 to 2050 will be different , because most of the country fastly adopt in technology and finding new thing - but india we failed ony focus on services ,
its cannot predict in nifty 50 are India old company’s , we need new age company to include in nifty to perform , i accept his statement
whatever told DII is pumping money - Without FII market will never move - its clearly showing FII taking out money from india, its not easy to come back those money - we need some thing otherwise - AI is changing world employment and market
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### Author:  [@VijayNair](https://tradingqna.com/u/VijayNair)
#### Post date: [October 2, 2026, 6:06am UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444/142 "2026-10-02T06:06:32Z")
> [@TradeB2B](#):
>
> this time is different
Every correction has this same chorus 🙂 Maybe they will get this right for once 😅
After the relentless selling, FII now hold 15%, and DII hold 20% of Indian market.
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### Author:  [@SpacemanSpiff](https://tradingqna.com/u/SpacemanSpiff)
#### Post date: [October 2, 2026, 7:30am UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444/143 "2026-10-02T07:30:58Z")
yes could be good time to buy. Anyway, every day is decent time to buy for long term if one is ok with market returns + DD.
Then again, i have seen people crying about low \< FD returns for 5 years, those were very good times to buy.
Most of the damage has been in Nifty. Perhaps due to FII selling. Smaller and smaller caps are doing better, smaller the better - really odd. So the broader market hasn’t face that much damage, and i wouldn’t really call this phase panic selling. If Domestic flows start panicking, we have broad market correction, then maybe after some time.
The table looks fine. I also see good future returns just on 10% DD. As usually market dips and continues. Buts averages do hide path to simplify.
> [@TradeB2B](#):
>
> whatever told DII is pumping money - Without FII market will never move
The more they sell, the less they have and at some point their influence will wane. Or govt will relax rules for Foreign capital and money comes back. Maybe AI blows up and money comes back. Who knows.
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### Author:  [@TIMEFRAME](https://tradingqna.com/u/TIMEFRAME)
#### Post date: [October 3, 2026, 6:39am UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444/144 "2026-10-03T06:39:51Z")
> [@VijayNair](#):
>
> By the end of November, three aircraft carriers and two landing groups will be deployed around Iran, a US official tells Al Jazeera.
Iran hitting USA left &Right , US withdrawn from Iraq , now one more war started in Ethiopia near Red Sea
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### Author:  [@TIMEFRAME](https://tradingqna.com/u/TIMEFRAME)
#### Post date: [October 3, 2026, 6:49am UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444/145 "2026-10-03T06:49:43Z")
> [@Santhosh9](#):
>
> and I will continue…Even today when Nifty touched 22300, I dumped 5L into Nifty bees, and some other investments. If I fail, yeahhh I will have to accept it.
I think after a long period of time you will be more successful , but you need to be a passive Investor or kind of a Arm Chair Investor like Warren Buffet , i feel issue was too much of hope that Indices will go to higher , higher ATH. Investing like Warren Buffet works because he is in right place & Time , but Indian conditions are totally different
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### Author:  [@Santhosh9](https://tradingqna.com/u/Santhosh9)
#### Post date: [October 3, 2026, 7:10am UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444/146 "2026-10-03T07:10:27Z")
Completely agree…
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### Author:  [@Jason\_Castelino](https://tradingqna.com/u/Jason_Castelino)
#### Post date: [October 3, 2026, 7:10am UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444/147 "2026-10-03T07:10:39Z")
> [@TIMEFRAME](#):
>
> i feel issue was too much of hope that Indices will go to higher , higher ATH.
It has to go. It will go. It’s just that last 2 years there are negative returns. Ultimately equities will beat FD returns.
In short let me explain why equity return has to be more than FD. FD has lower risk than equity. If equity expected return is less than FD then we have an inefficient asset class. (Read efficient frontier theory). When risk is higher the return has to be higher. Now if we assume FD are only better, then if everybody moves to FD, there will be unwanted liquidity in FD. Interest rates will be dropped. And this rate cuts will lead to funds moving to equity. All this is a cycle. So on longer timeframe there is no way equity returns is less than FD.
Now if you start with Japan example, the interest rates in Japan were 0. And equities were already overpriced from the point where everybody counts. So if you consider after the correction in the first 2 years and then calculate return of Japan equities, they gave better cagr than their FD.
In 2024 September I strongly believe Indian equities were overvalued. So we had the much needed correction. From now on I don’t think equities will underperform FD. So worst case I expect 8 percent cagr in the next 5 years from this level.
Even inflation leads to higher index values. Just see Pakistan’s index. Its not because they perform better than us. They just have higher interest rates.
The nominal growths are only numbers. They mean nothing. If you have to actually check returns, we have to see them in real terms.
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### Author:  [@TIMEFRAME](https://tradingqna.com/u/TIMEFRAME)
#### Post date: [October 3, 2026, 9:28am UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444/148 "2026-10-03T09:28:46Z")
> [@Jason\_Castelino](#):
>
> Now if you start with Japan example
I agree all your points , don’t want the kind of Japanese market conditions that went in to after 1990 , I realized that Stock market is Random & volatile and general market conditions are important not worried much about particular Indices levels , My point was that , here in Indian Market regulation does not provide any Hedging options for non privileged persons who are having lesser capital to Hedge their port polis while stock market is crashing , here in India hedges comes at Too high cost, so the people who do plain stock buying has to make money only during bull market probably you are the one privileged person can easily hedge your stocks in your holding , like me many of us don’t have the big capital to do that , so the dissent comes , in US hedging portfolio by using Options are easy and comes with 1/10 the cost of hedging in India so probably lot many people don’t hedge the stock portfolio and do panic selling while market crashes This is the disadvantage in Indian stock market & only Privileged person can do hedging and also buy, hold stocks even during market crashes and i believe they are only few in numbers.🙂
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### Author:  [@BB789](https://tradingqna.com/u/BB789)
#### Post date: [October 3, 2026, 10:34am UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444/149 "2026-10-03T10:34:36Z")
> [@Jason\_Castelino](#):
>
> When risk is higher the return has to be higher
Higher risk does not guarantee higher return. It requires a higher expected return to justify taking the risk. If a higher return were certain, the asset wouldn’t be risky. Higher risk implies **higher variance**. What about regular naked otm option buyers? You need to be right about direction, magnitude and timing, which carries more risk than the typical “lazy” buy and hold investors. Does that mean the option buyer will win over the
> [@Jason\_Castelino](#):
>
> longer timeframe
because of the increased risk he takes day by day? What about random penny stock buyers?
> [@Jason\_Castelino](#):
>
> there is no way equity returns is less than FD.
There have been periods in history(if I were to cherry pick, US:2000-2009, Japan:1990-2012) where equity returns were less than bonds. But you are right, equity returns do outperform debt in most periods in history even in catastrophes. However it’s also important to note purchasing power wise/real return wise, you may experience negative returns on both like Japan equities and bonds during World war. It didn’t matter much if equity did outperform bonds when the real return on both was a near total wipeout.
“_History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme_”
Disclosure: A few lines were generated by AI.
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### Author:  [@TradeB2B](https://tradingqna.com/u/TradeB2B)
#### Post date: [October 3, 2026, 1:18pm UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444/150 "2026-10-03T13:18:27Z")
Stock market return are Subject to individual Believe and Hope risk , every body see the past return , its will repeate in the future also . not like that ,
All country is looking good , But Govt is telling LIE -india is growing @7% and Inflation Below 3% - But stock market is showing a real face now - without FII market will never go up
Write it down - FIIs will never come back in this USD/INR rate - No AI adopation in this country , Intrest rate need to be rise soon - tax on High bracket - All problems are created by GOVERMENT , then how those innocent people are beliving this is a good time to invest
Festival season also market is not moving up , in one youtube channel one guy telling l;ast 2 Years market will go ATH this year - see the comment every body shouting
Dont compare like 2008 or 2020 Both are global situation - now its diffrent , only AI country can survie others will be coma for next 5 years
those who are investing in stock market please take health insurance and critical care insurance
Even brokers telling next 5 years is more diffcult for Nifty
No one believe befor ITC INfy , TCS Reliance Bluechi stock safe stock can crash 30 to 50%
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### Author:  [@VijayNair](https://tradingqna.com/u/VijayNair)
#### Post date: [October 3, 2026, 1:46pm UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444/151 "2026-10-03T13:46:13Z")
> [@TradeB2B](#):
>
> Dont compare like 2008 or 2020 Both are global situation - now its diffrent
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### Author:  [@BB789](https://tradingqna.com/u/BB789)
#### Post date: [October 3, 2026, 2:05pm UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444/152 "2026-10-03T14:05:42Z")
> [@VijayNair](#):
>
> Current Nifty 2 year cagr is -6.3%
>
> 
This data seems cherry picked to promote a narrative of “buy the dip”. Is that all the data where 2Y CAGR was less than or equal to 1%? There’s also no risk adjusted return: If you went -55% and got back up to 11%, that’s not the same as going to -5% and back up to 11%. Also there’s no control to compare it against? Say, what about “buying the ATH” or normal SIP or buying when everything is calm. Could the same results be obtained without the extra risk/volatility?
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### Author:  [@VijayNair](https://tradingqna.com/u/VijayNair)
#### Post date: [October 3, 2026, 2:21pm UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444/153 "2026-10-03T14:21:14Z")
> [@BB789](#):
>
> This data seems cherry picked to promote a narrative of “buy the dip”.
The moneycontrol article mentiones only flat 2 year phases, so its not looking at how deep it has gone as a 2 year average…
But dont think It has ever been deep-red as a 2 year cagr in the past 25 years.
[https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/personal-finance/nifty-flat-two-years-history-market-returns-investors-13957530.html](https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/personal-finance/nifty-flat-two-years-history-market-returns-investors-13957530.html)
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### Author:  [@BB789](https://tradingqna.com/u/BB789)
#### Post date: [October 3, 2026, 2:37pm UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444/154 "2026-10-03T14:37:51Z")
I don’t know. There’s clear conflict of interest if the report is sponsored by Edelweiss MF, whose income depends on continuous inflows into the fund and people keeping the money in it and not taking it out. Not saying market won’t recover or that buying the dip does not work, but I’m skeptical about the data presented without exact backtest or Sharpe/Sortino ratios during the period or comparision with alternative strategies like SIP/buying ATH. It is more promotional rather than an unbiased analysis.
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### Author:  [@TIMEFRAME](https://tradingqna.com/u/TIMEFRAME)
#### Post date: [October 3, 2026, 2:38pm UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444/155 "2026-10-03T14:38:18Z")
“I regard him the most”
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### Author:  [@TradeB2B](https://tradingqna.com/u/TradeB2B)
#### Post date: [October 3, 2026, 2:42pm UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444/156 "2026-10-03T14:42:00Z")
These kind of words we can see most in china and japan market
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### Author:  [@VijayNair](https://tradingqna.com/u/VijayNair)
#### Post date: [October 4, 2026, 4:19am UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444/157 "2026-10-04T04:19:17Z")
@BB789 How are your investments planned, in terms of % of capital. All in Gsec/FD/Real-Estate ?
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### Author:  [@BB789](https://tradingqna.com/u/BB789)
#### Post date: [October 4, 2026, 5:31am UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444/158 "2026-10-04T05:31:24Z")
My portfolio is small and therefore my allocation moves very drastically, but it’s generally a defensive strategy. Last year I guess \>70% in paper Gold/Silver, 10% in short term debt, 10% international etfs, \<5% nifty, some in FD/Gsec. This year, I guess on average, \<20% in commodities, 10% in short term debt, 60% international equity, ~10% in nifty etfs(which I added on small breakouts from last fall and it is already down around 10%) and my share picks(up 20%), some in FD/Gsec. Real estate, I expect to crash globally and I expect that to affect india as well. Plan to increase allocation to floating debt to take advantage of rising interest rates and gradually switch over to Long term Gsec to take advantage of falling interest rates, if and when they come.
FWIW, I did exit my 50% of my long pe on nifty last fall, which I hope to reenter on bounce. But if it closes 22350 or below, I expect a quick and straight fall to God knows where. If it goes above 23000 or 23500, I plan to add some more to nifty etfs. My strategy is simply buy on sustained(week over week) strength and sell on sustained weakness. It’s the opposite of Jason’s mean reversion strategy and your buy on dip strategy. Both has advantages and disadvantages. I’m seriously bullish only above ATH: You still get most of the move, say if nifty were to double from here and that’s enough for me - no need to be greedy to guess and buy too much at what you think is bottom.
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### Author:  [@Jason\_Castelino](https://tradingqna.com/u/Jason_Castelino)
#### Post date: [October 4, 2026, 5:37am UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444/159 "2026-10-04T05:37:41Z")
> [@TIMEFRAME](#):
>
> I realized that Stock market is Random & volatile and general market conditions are important not worried much about particular Indices levels
This is what I have believed in for a long time. In short term they are random. But in long term they have to cover risk free rate and a small premium. Short term is mainly all noise.
> [@TIMEFRAME](#):
>
> here in Indian Market regulation does not provide any Hedging options
Hedging is expensive. For a pure long term investor, I believe hedging is not required. The cost of hedging will eat out at least 3 percent return on a long run. Unless you are good at timing the hedge, I feel it’s unnecessary cost. I mean to say, you need to cut the hedge at some point and hope for the reversal. I too don’t hedge much. Only time I did was in 2024 after we crossed 25k. After that we went to 26k also. And I cut all my hedges when we came back to 24k.
I agree with most of the other things which you have mentioned.
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### Author:  [@Jason\_Castelino](https://tradingqna.com/u/Jason_Castelino)
#### Post date: [October 4, 2026, 5:58am UTC](https://tradingqna.com/t/poll-2026-10-27-where-will-nifty-close-this-months-expiry/198444/160 "2026-10-04T05:58:32Z")
> [@BB789](#):
>
> Higher risk does not guarantee higher return.
There is no guarantee for sure. If there is any guarantee then the risk associated with it is 0.
It’s the avg of expected returns. People take higher risk with the expectation that they will get higher return.
> [@BB789](#):
>
> Does that mean the option buyer will win over the
No. Options are not investments. They can’t be compared with other asset classes.
If you have to compare option buying, then it has to with other derivative products. Let’s keep it simple. Option selling.
So option selling carries higher risk. That’s why on an avg option sellers make higher return. Again you will have to see avg return of all option buyers and option sellers.
> [@BB789](#):
>
> What about random penny stock buyers?
Thats gambling. Like otm options. Penny stocks may come under inefficient investment. For higher risk you don’t get enough return. That’s why it gets rejected. You don’t see big money chasing penny stocks. Fiis and funds. So that’s inefficient market.
> [@BB789](#):
>
> There have been periods in history(if I were to cherry pick, US:2000-2009, Japan:1990-2012) where equity returns were less than bonds.
Possible. I have not checked the data. But I am guessing you have taken the highest point of equity and measured returns from there. May be it was overvalued then. So it we consider a small correction from there and then compare the returns with bonds, I am guessing it to be better. Like in Indian context if we take September 2024 levels and then take cagr of FD rates for next 5 years, who knows the nifty may not even reach there. But if we go just 1 year back, ie. September 2023 and then take cagr of fd for next 5 years we may beat fd returns. The probability increases.
What I am trying to saying is take random 5 years. Nobody has invested all his capital at the highest level.
My post for which you replied was only explaining why index has to go higher year on year. And my answer is interest rates. Interest rates depend on inflation and forex.
You can take any developing economy. Take its index. Index has never taken more than 5 years to hit next ATH. It’s not that these countries have done well. It’s just that they have higher interest rates.
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