ok, yeah i missed that.
Almost impossible to gap down at 10 directly. But weird things happen, crude went negative !
Index we probably did because i had this link open.
fno stocks, i think we had circuits but rules may have been slightly different. So they probably used to open almost instantly which is what you remember. These days its much more restricted, max any stock can fall in a day is also in 30s as they reduce circuit window.
I am looking at ZEEL 2019 fall, and i dont see 15m pauses.
Yes. Even yes bank fell sharp.
Now taking it a little further. Now letâs assume an impossible case of JS taking nifty to LC, every stock has to be down by 10 percent soon after they start dumping. And 15 mins time is enough for others to figure out whatâs happening.
So conclusion. JS canât take index to 10 percent LC.
People here have hopes that stocks also can go negative.
My 50% was a criticism of unsupported certainty, not a calculated market forecast.
All Iâm saying is without data, every bold market call is just narrative cosplay. So stop presenting guesses as analysis. Bring a model, bring base rates, bring volatility, bring positioning, bring something. Otherwise, your conviction is unsupported.
Someone is saying nifty can hit lower circuit, someone is saying it will hit 30k (More it will fall more will be returns for the year) for me, both are delusional. For my 21500 i have given supported data in simple format, i have even complex calculations for that.
My point is that without evidence, people should stop pretending their claim has analytical backing.
lol, Will need change in laws i guess around bankruptcy.
Would be funny (looking from outside ) if people start chasing shareholders for money if management drove company to bankruptcy. Thankfully, we donât have to worry about this.
Crude needed physical delivery, which had costs.
I still didnât understand the connection to the probability you mentioned. Anyways.
I have my own calculations for my targets. You have your reasons. I hope both of us are right. 
I believe what he meant was that any claim/prediction regarding the market has a 50% probability to either happen or not happen.
As these predictions are as random as a coin toss, which has 50% probability of either being a head or a tail.
So, unless the predictions are backed by some data, all predictions will have a 50% probability.
The thing is others may pound it more. There are many bots and algos that donât care about any facts or fundamentals and just look at price action, which mind you, werenât as prevalent in the previous decade. Then there would be panicking human orders as well. Youâre right in saying it wonât work without any news whatsoever and other people may buy back. But if thereâs news(like current scenario) and they can easily use the news to create panic. And yes, they also need support from Global markets too in the same direction.
It apparently only took 650Cr back in 2012 to drop nifty by 15%.
Nifty returns were 5x from there. So maybe 10x that 6500Cr on heavy weights? Back then I believe there was intraday leverage and therefore more liquidity in cash markets. Even 100x that at 65kCr seems well doable for a 15% crash⊠SEBI destroying intraday leverage seems at least partly to contribute to the ability of the likes of Jane to move cash markets relatively easily.
Just saying itâs not impossible!
Bro, you better read about efficient and inefficient market theories and never confuse uncertainity with probability.
Iâm aware of efficient and inefficient market theories. What is your point? We were only talking about how much it would take to move nifty down to LC not that itâll stay there or that it wonât bounce back. Obviously from the context, it is clear that for it to stay there till EOD, you do need really bad news and global market movement in that direction. Iâm just saying it is possible to do that with that kind of money poured in very fast.
What made you think Iâm confusing uncertainty and probability? Even I said itâs âhighly unlikelyâ