Probability of option ending itm

F&O
1

What is the probability of an option ending ITM, with its DELTA at 25, 20, 15 vis-a-vis DTE.
I.e. an option with DELTA -25 with DTE 45, 30, 15 expiring ITM

1 Like
2

I guess there will not be any predefined calculation because market moves based on news, earnings, etc

If there is a formula, I would like to know it too

3

Use historical data to calculate it. It’s going to be different for each scrip. And this stat would probably be of no help other than in indexes maybe.

4

Correct, it will help with indexes. But having such large database is not possible for me.
I presume DELTA-DTE relation as 15-45, 20-30,25-15. Hope this will work.