Please do share the detailed analysis (if you can spare the time/patience).
Also, do add reference links and charts/diagrams/screenshots to get the points across effectively.
Maybe start a new topic-thread with that post?
Am sure others on the forum will appreciate any insights you may have to share.
Also some folks should be able to identify any blindspots in such an analysis
and highlight potential risk factors (if any).
Overall, i think it will be a fun and productive thread.
I have conducted an hour-by-hour OI analysis of the indices over a period of six months. I am willing to write a dissertation on this subject if adequately compensated. However, I prefer not to share this work in a publicly accessible forum.
Get away with brokers who donât even provide bracket orders. As a day trader, your chance is pretty slim already. Donât make it more harder, without putting a stop loss, which is mandatory in bracket orders.
This doesnât apply to legends who trade without stoploss or are trading legends in forums.
Espresso provides a better form of bracket order which they call MIS+, where you can just put the SL in absolute value/price and putting target is optional. Best thing is it doesnât slice your orders into different legs.
Thatâs provides one of the quickest bracket order entry with risk in total control. And yeah, I have yet to see a technical snag.
Then other features like,
No brokerage on losses.
Instant withdrawal. This is also first in industry. If you transfer 50k for trading in the morning, and you already have done for the day before 10. Then you can make a withdrawal for say, 48000, it ll come in your bank in the same morning or afternoon.
Look I am no ambassador for espresso. So, I donât like advertising for it.
Day trading is hard, donât make it more harder cuz of your broker.
Retail participation in option trading was negligible ten years ago. Even in 2018-19, the figure was only 7 lakhs, which was insignificant. However, in 2023-24, it has surged to 45 lakhs.
Edit: It was a different situation when there was no or negligible retail participation. Moreover, there were no weekly expiries.
6m is still not enough, how to manage is traderâs problem not marketâs. Things will change and you will have to adapt on the go i guess.
As a simplified example - do you think market behavior is same today as it was in 2020 ?
Someone who only tests 2020 crash months will thinks markets are very volatile.
Someone who tests only last 6months will not know about 2020 and would severely underestimate risk.
Yes, 6 months is nothing, although can help derive insights into OI flow.
I prefer testing from 2017, then look at 2019, 2022, 2023 with special interest. And finally look at 2015-16 as an afterthought. Plus atleast 6 months Walk-forward (or live with small qty)
Risk management was not the primary objective of my study. What I wanted to find out was what the big players are doing, and for that, an analysis of six months is sufficient, I think. What I have found out is that, for retail participants, all these talks of risk management are useless, given how the game is being played by the big players. Thatâs why I said in my opening comment that it is like trying to beat Manchester United with a high school football team. To put it in an Indian context, it is like trying to beat an IPL team with a mohalla cricket team. In such a situation, you donât think about risk management; you think about how to end the game with a respectable defeat.
Thatâs fine, but understanding past data is a major part of risk management. Else you are going in blind. Future can change, so there is that and we must have additional space, but i believe that ignoring past is a potentially fatal mistake.
Without risk management, you are going to suffer.
If end game is defeat, you donât play.
I find these metaphors loser talk basically. You get someone else to blame for your own failures rather than learning and persisting through them.
Large players deploy large capital. They cant be as nimble and probably play a different game. We probably get edges in lower timeframe through their behavior in higher timeframes.
Theory aside, its definitely possible to make money trading alongside them but is hard to do i guess as most people fail. Lack of sustained useful effort is a major reason i think.
Anyway, i already made my point. I see no reason one should restrict to a short backtest. Good luck.
Absolutely not. Why should I blame someone else for my failure when, to start with, I am entering the trade with the wrong motive? Retail players donât trade options for the purpose for which options were invented. Therefore, I have no one to blame but myself.
There is only one system that can ensure survival in F&O trading, but it requires a substantial amount of capital, which very few retail traders can afford. It all comes down to checks and balances.
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There is no free lunch. I have spent days and hours figuring out what needs to be done. I canât deploy it because I donât have the money. And now you want me to share it in an online forum?
Itâs not a matter of curiosity; it has to be that one system by which big players remain profitable, day after day. You just need to do some research and find out what it is.
