I am new to options trading and am looking at the current movement of 11200 DEC CE. It is trading at 0.80 and it makes me wonder why. It’s so unrealistic that nifty will reach 11200 by tomorrow. Why is it valued at 0.80? Why are there more buyers than sellers? If I say, choose to sell 10 lots now, what are the chances of profit? If my understanding is correct, it seems that the chances are very high since I expect the options to be not exercised and hence I make the whole premium as profit. Or say if nifty reaches 11000 tomorrow (still deep otm), will I have any impact? Am I wrong here?
Its unrealistic but not impossible
If Nifty reaches 11000 tomorrow, then that option may quote around 3-5 rs
its extrinsic value ( time value + volatility ) . it would expire worthless at expiry ( assuming nifty stays below that strike .
buyers maybe intraday traders who may exit by today or maybe they are playing on market vega , delta etc ( depending on their outlook & strategies or maybe they are expecting a windfall by tommorow
for selling 11200 option you need around rs 115000 ( i’m making rough assumption for easy understanding ) compare that what you would get if keep money lying in a risk free intrument ( example bank FD for 2 days ) . if can get higher yeild than FD then you can short otherwise why lose overnight sleep for meagre differential ?