The Night India Almost Went Broke!

I’m honestly not much of a movie person. However, because I regularly talk to my son about markets, finance, and macroeconomics, he insisted we sit down and watch Governor: The Silent Saviour starring Manoj Bajpayee.

I’m glad I did. Hence just sharing my thoughts here

The film shows how close India came to total economic collapse in 1990–1991. Manoj Bajpayee plays the RBI Governor dealing with empty government coffers, political chaos, and a ticking clock. Instead of standard action scenes, the tension comes from the harsh reality: having to secretly pledge India’s gold reserves to save the nation from sovereign default.

Fact Details
Forex Reserves Dropped to just ~$1.2 Billion — barely enough to cover 2 to 3 weeks of essential imports (crude oil and medicine).
Pledging Gold India had to secretly airlift ~67 tonnes of physical gold to the Bank of England and UBS in Switzerland as loan collateral.
Why It Happened High fiscal debt, political instability, and the Gulf War spiking oil prices while cutting remittance inflows.

The ending is powerful. Pledging the gold felt like a national humiliation at the time, but it bought the country critical breathing room. It forced the 1991 economic reforms that opened up our economy. India eventually repaid the loans, brought back every gram of gold, and built a massive financial shield.

Growing up, I never imagined an entire country could actually go bankrupt. But when foreign currency runs dry, everything halts: no fuel imports, no medicine, and the currency crashes overnight.

Now, henceforth whenever I read headlines about India increasing its foreign exchange buffers or RBI buying more gold reserves, I would definitely breathe a sigh of relief i guess. It isn’t just dry data it is national survival insurance against external shocks.

Just happen to check few countries go under bankruptcy and their reasons behind it.

:earth_africa: 3 Countries That Actually Went Bankrupt

Country Why It Happened What Happened Next
:sri_lanka: Sri Lanka (2022) Heavy foreign debt for unviable projects plus an overnight ban on chemical fertilizers that hurt farming and tea exports. Ran out of forex for fuel, food, and medicine. Rolling blackouts, massive public unrest, and sovereign default followed.
:greece: Greece (2015) Excessive government spending, poor tax collection, and disguised deficit figures for years. Defaulted on IMF loans. Banks shut down, ATM withdrawals were capped at €60/day, and severe austerity hit citizens.
:argentina: Argentina (2001) Accumulation of massive foreign debt while artificially fixing the Argentine Peso 1:1 against the US Dollar. Run on banks (Corralito ), frozen bank accounts, default on $100B, and 5 presidents resigning in two weeks.

Now as of Today’s condition i just asked chatgpt what are potential things to focus on and its solutions and really couldnt find promising answers.

We have our forex (~$700B+) and gold reserves look secure. However these below topics still remain a point of major concern.

  1. Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR): India holds only ~9–10 days of emergency crude oil underground despite importing over 85% of its oil needs.
  2. Groundwater Tables: Crucial agricultural zones and tier-1 cities are draining groundwater aquifers at unsustainable rates—a resource money cannot easily import during prolonged droughts.
  3. Critical Minerals & Rare Earths: Minimal domestic reserves of refined lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements necessary for future tech and energy transitions.

What do you think can be done here how can it be preserved or increased?

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STRATEGIC RESERVES

I read few months ago that India is developing new reserves in partnership with UAE. After Strait of Hormuz, UAE ttoo was looking for alternative to store its oil so that it can export from there in case similar crisis arise again in future and hence it partnered with India.

GROUNDWATER

Make Rain water harvesting compulsory for all buildings and implement seriously without any corruption

RARE EARTH

No idea but read India is exploring in partnership with US and allies as a part of PAX Silica. For now, everyone including superpower US is vulnerable to China

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The common theme is simple: build reserves, diversify supply and recycle whatever can be recycled.

Because unlike forex, you cannot call the RBI and ask it to print more groundwater. :sweat_smile:

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The rare earth part is probably the one we should be talking about more. We’ve already seen how quickly dependence on one country can become a problem when geopolitics goes sideways, and that dependency only seems to be getting worse.

Yes I remember this. India Millenium Bonds were issued where interest rate on USD bonds were 8% up.

RBI did the same over the last few months. Collected USD 136 billion. They pre closed the window from September 30 to Aug 31.

This is the power of Indian Diaspora and the trust level India has in the world.

Banks offered interest rate of 8% on USD FCNR deposit (Equitas), 7.40 by Au Small Finance Bank, 7% by KVB, 6.50 to 6.75 by other banks. Foreign banks offered leverage as well like HSBC for high networth indians, Bank of Baroda gave 10 times leverage for USD 100,000, deposit at 6.50%, loan portion lower as well.

Real answer is political.

License Raj, closed economy, communist and socialist policies that destroyed economy and productivity. This never happened overnight. The nail was already placed when nehru/congress after independence during 1950 went into communist-socialist policy. Nationalisation of banks, private sectors etc. air india was a great profitable company before 1950 run by tata, they took his company and made him chairman for name sake and destroyed the company over the years and then wanted to get rid of by privatising which happened very late.

Yeah, I think politics definitely played a big role here. The License Raj and all the nationalisation made it really difficult for private businesses to grow and compete. But I also wouldn’t put everything on one person or one ideology. India was starting from a very difficult position after independence, so some state involvement was probably necessary. The bigger problem, IMO, was that the same restrictive system continued for way too long. The 1991 reforms really showed what India could do once things started opening up.