Guide to good decisions
We make decisions daily but rarely do we have a useful framework for thinking that protects us when making decisions.
This short piece explores Munger’s two-step process for making effective decisions and reducing misjudgement.
Does India need free trade and lower tarrifs?
https://twitter.com/DivaJain2/status/1611550203168817154?s=20&t=XYHOT77JpYQ_iWvPV-dYaQ
Time and again we see opinion pieces emerging from the west about how India/other emerging economies should open up or manage their economies. Often times these are quite opposite to the paths the writers’ home countries took. Here is another example but this time I feel its been adequately thrashed by Divya jain.
Pokernomics
https://www.bqprime.com/view/the-fed-may-have-discovered-the-secret-to-successful-trading
Want to Succeed on Wall Street? Learn Poker, Not Economics. A new study from the Federal Reserve finds that among professional investors, neither intelligence nor other personality traits and cognitive skills matter much.
Most people will file this away as a mildly interesting factoid. It’s not surprising in that we know professional trading organizations use poker and other strategic games — such as Wall Street firm Jane Street’s Figgie – to select and train traders. But the paper’s finding goes well beyond the claim that strategy is valuable for trading. It suggests that other things such as intelligence, risk strategies, personality traits or knowledge of fundamental value do not matter — or at least are so evenly distributed among traders that they can’t be used to predict success.
You fell for it again
Every pump and dump cycle is essentially the same. The “outsiders” like you and me and the average Joe buy into ideas like you only lose if you sell/Diamond Hands/ HODL. Unlike the outside game, where selling is the cardinal sin, the entire goal of the inside game is to sell .
The inside game recognizes and exploits a zero-sum game of social contagion. The asset in question - and any concept of valuation - is irrelevant. What matters is how much hype you can generate and how many new outsiders you can lure. The essential tools are human emotions: greed, jealousy, and fear (of missing out).
Please read this piece to see how its always the same game. Learn. Make sure you don’t fall for it the next time.
Reality hits creator economy
After years of hype, the Creator Economy is slamming into reality. Influencer programs are shuttering. Investment is drying up. And worsening economic conditions are threatening to crush creators and the tech infrastructure behind them.
While you are at it, please also read how influencers cheat.