1. SET UP to TRADE BANK NIFTY
- Trend: (⇓ - downtrend) Bank Nifty is in initial phase of Bearish Trend. So, Supply is in total control of market today. Seller will have their dominance over demand.
- Market set up : (⇑- Supportive to trend ) Today Bank Nifty Force set up is "Supportive" for Selling. So, Today is "Good set up" to Sell. You should look for Selling opportunity.
- F&O trader position: (⇑ - Basis rise) The difference between bank nifty's future and spot (Basis) is now 154 points. The basis has risen from last day about 37points. Toay is high chance that BASIS will fall.
- Bottom Line : The Trend is down.>>GOOD set up to SELL>> Basis rise.
2. sentiments
- Global markets: The Asian market is mostly down+ USA future market is flat+ but DAX future is creacked!
- what is news on TV GDP data is lag data, so it may use to book profit!
- Positive newsflow: GDP data is great, but it may not full advantage to bulls.
- Negative newsflow: Bank nifty is slightly weaker de to micro! & Rate hike chances is higher due to good growth!
- Bottom Line: Sentiments is mild negative. Sentiments is also supportive to Down trend.
3. Game theory ( tug of war between buyer & seller)
- From where New Buying comes? A. Since sentiments are mild negative, the Outside trader may not buy today.
- From where new selling come: A. Outside trader-Mild new short selling expected from outside traders. B. Trader's with Long Position- GOOD chance for Long unwind today.
- Will buyers buys on dips?:
- Will Seller sell on rise? On rise-Since trend is Down, There will be a higher number of sellers at higher end which propels the market to go down on the intraday rise. Moreover, on Rise, a buyer who wanted to buy has already bought. So Selling on the rise is a dominant strategy as more seller & lack of buyer on rising of downtrend market
4. what I am going to do today (In bank nifty)
- Set up: Today Bank Nifty Force set up is "Supportive" for Selling. So, Today is "Good set up" to Sell. You should look for Selling opportunity.
- Sentiments: sentiments is mild negative
- EDGE: My today trading edge points clubbing setup & sentiments is -110 .Since my edge is less than -50m I will be only looking for shorting opportunity for today.
- ENTRY on edge: I m selling at opening gp up
- EXIT: if my selling work, I hold he position till noon.
Abhikumar Patel
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