1. SET UP to TRADE BANK NIFTY
- Trend: ( downtrend) " Bank Nifty is in the Mid phase of bearish Trend. So, Supply is Still in control of market today. Seller will have their Mild dominance over demand. "
- Market set up : (⇓- opposite to trend ) Today Bank Nifty Force set up is "NOT supportive" for selling. So, Today is "Not OK "set up to Sell. You should Avoid trading or look for buying.
- F&O trader position: (⇑ - Basis rise ) The difference between bank nifty's future and spot (Basis) is now 136 points. The basis has risen from last day about 24 .points.
- Bottom Line : The Trend is down.>>But BAD set up to sell (Avoid selling)>> Basis rise.
- Global markets: asian markets are flat + dow future is also flat
- what is news on TV There is not fresh nagative ! But all bounced to be sold into & We are at middle of correction!
- Positive newsflow: Doller index in down, thus it could be good for rupee ( finger cross)
- Negative newsflow: Cost of capital is incresed due to High yeild on GOVT Bond recent spike.
- Bottom Line: Sentments is mild positive. Sentiments are not supportive to on going trend.
3. Game theory ( tug of war between buyer & seller)
- From where New Buying comes? A.Since sentiments are Mild Positive, the Outside trader will come and buy.
- From where new selling come: A. Outside trader may not short sell today. B. Trader's with Long Position- GOOD chance for Long unwind today.
- Will buyers buys on dips?:
- Will Seller sell on rise? On rise-Since trend is Down, There will be a higher number of sellers at higher end which propels the market to go down on the intraday rise. Moreover, on Rise, a buyer who wanted to buy has already bought. So Selling on the rise is a dominant strategy as more seller & lack of buyer on rising of downtrend market
4. what I am going to do today (In bank nifty)
- Set up: Today Bank Nifty Force set up is "NOT supportive" for selling. So, Today is "Not OK "set up to Sell. You should Avoid trading or look for buying.
- Sentiments: sentments is mild positive
- EDGE: My today trading edge points clubbing setup & sentiments is -5 .Today, I don't have any edge ( NO EDGE), so I will NOT TRADE AT ALL..
- ENTRY on edge: I will only look for rupee movement ,if it recover then I will be buyer. if it is fall, then I will not short sell. (Only looking for buying on rupee recovery)
- EXIT: If I get long trade due to rupee, then i will hold till as long as rupee is recovering!