1. SET UP to Trade Nifty Bank.
Trend: (⇔ - Notdefine trend) Market is not trending anywhere.But there is Mild bies on downside.
Market set up :(⇔- Neutral to trend) Today Bank Nifty Force set up is Not Supportive for Selling. So, Today is Bad set up to Sell. You should only sell at Higher range Or rise
Bottom Line : The Trend is Not define, But Last day Positive move can support today's down-move & give follow up on downside >> Bad set up to Sell.
2. Sentiments
- Global markets:
Dow Jones future is Negative & Hang Seng is Negative.
- What is on News/TV
Not good Day. Dow future down Now 1%. The Banknifty is really weak link. Sell on Upper range.
- Positive News-flow::
Core sector data is very good. Vix is comming down.
- Negative News-flow::
FII selling & Tomorrow is Holiday , So trader can Lighten up positions. Govt. Borowing of 1.2lks is not enough which is very negative.
- Bottom Line:
Sentiments is very Much Negative. Sentiments are not supportive of on going Trend.
3. Game Theory ( Tug of war between Buyer & Seller)
- From where New Buying comes?
A. Since Sentiments are Very Much Negative, the Outside Trader will postpone their Buying.
- From where new selling come?
A. Since Sentiments are very much Negative, Aggressive short Selling expected from outside Trade. B. Trader's with Long Position- "Less" chance for Long unwind today.
- Will Seller sell on rise?
On rise-Since trend is not perfect!, There will be a higher number of Sellers at higher end which propels the market to go down on the intraday rise. Moreover, on Rise, a Buyer who wanted to buy has already bought. So Selling on the rise is a Dominant Strategy as more Seller & lack of Buyer on rise of this Downtrend Trending market
4. What I am going to do today (In Bank Nifty)
- Set Up:
Today Bank Nifty Force set up is Not Supportive for Selling. So, Today is Bad set up to Sell. You should only sell at Higher range Or rise
- Sentiments:
Sentiments is very Much Negative.
- Trading Edge:
My Today Trading edge points clubbing Setup & Sentiments is -73 Point. Since My Trading Edge is less than -70, I will be only looking for shorting opportunity for Today.
- Entry on Edge:
Sell- When BN is Between 19316-19518
- Exit on Fair price:
Fair Price for Today's Trade is at least 18683
- Stoploss:
Keep 50/70 point Stoploss on ATM options from your entry price.
It's Significant intellectual property & New way to Analyse the Market which use Unconventional Instruments Like Behaviour Finance & Game Theory for getting clear & Unbies idea for Active Derivative Traders.
Abhikumar Patel