Trading Set Up for Banknifty on 25/06/2019

1. SET UP to Trade Nifty Bank.

  • Trend: (⇔ - Not define trend)
  • Market is not trending anywhere, But today seem to be a good day to SHORT as last day Rise will lead to attract sellers today.
  • Market set up :(⇓- Opposite to trend )
  • Today Bank Nifty Force set up is Not Supportive for Selling. So, Today is Bad set up to Sell. You should Avoid Selling.
  • F&O Trader position: (⇔- Basis is flat )
  • The Difference between Bank Nifty future and spot (Basis) is now 111 Points. The Basis has fallen from last day about -3 points.
  • Bottom Line :
  • The Trend is Not define, But Last day Positive move can support today's down-move & give follow up on downside >> Bad set up to Sell.>>Basis fall.

    2. Sentiments

    • Global markets:
    • Dow Jones future is Positive & Hang Seng is Negative.
    • What is on News/TV
    • Currently "Make or break " zone.
    • Positive News-flow::
    • Negative News-flow::
    • Market may test lower end boundry today, But the breakdown may not be that much susainbale - due to Budget. Market Sentiments is also weak for now.
    • Bottom Line:
    • Sentiments is Mild Negative. Sentiments are not supportive of on going Trend.

    3. Game Theory ( Tug of war between Buyer & Seller)

    • From where New Buying comes?
    • A. Since Sentiments are mild Negative, the Outside Trader will Buy on DIPS only.
    • From where new selling come?
    • A. Since Sentiments are mild Negative, Mild new short selling expected from outside Traders. B. Trader's with Long Position- "Less" chance for Long unwind today.
    • Will Seller sell on rise?
    • On rise-Since trend is not perfect!, There will be a higher number of Sellers at higher end which propels the market to go down on the intraday rise. Moreover, on Rise, a Buyer who wanted to buy has already bought. So Selling on the rise is a Dominant Strategy as more Seller & lack of Buyer on rise of this Downtrend Trending market

    4. what I am going to do today (In bank nifty)

    • Set Up:
    • Today Bank Nifty Force set up is Not Supportive for Selling. So, Today is Bad set up to Sell. You should Avoid Selling.
    • Sentiments:
    • Sentiments is Mild Negative.
    • Trading Edge:
    • My Today Trading edge points clubbing Setup & Sentiments is -55 Point. Since My Trading Edge is less than -50, I will be only looking for shorting opportunity for Today.
    • Entry on Edge:
    • Sell- When BN is above 30682.05
    • Exit on Fair price:
    • Fair Price for Today's Trade is 30453.05
      It's Significant intellectual property & New way to Analyse the Market which use Unconventional Instruments Like Behaviour Finance & Game Theory for getting clear & Unbies idea for Active Derivative Traders.

    Abhikumar Patel

    1 Like

    plz look at chart friend, you might be unavailable from market yesterday.