Want an opinion about current economic condition

Thanks for your detailed response, and yes I am a long term investor. But still I don’t want to get negative return, till now my portfolio return is 11% in 4 months so I want to preserve that return upto 1 year.

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Market always front runs the respective country’s economy and at times adjusts itself with corrective measures to reflect the reality.

At current juncture, the Indian market is correcting itself on the growth expectation it had frm DeMo n GST. Also, No further rate cut in sight to stimulate economy becos of inflationary expectation due to kharif crop failure resulting in nil corporate profit growth & becos of high fuel prices.

Commenting on India, its greatest asset is its consumptive population, stable govt with dynamic policies, stable central bank policy measures, highly regulated financial sector, vibrant digital platforms to thrive.

Whenever distruptive things r tried in an economy, downturn is bound to happen till the things become ‘New Normal’.

Keep watch on the economic indicators of India on RBI website & keep comparing them at various years considering India itself as a company. The study of broad outlook always gives the better picture on wht is in store ahead.

Now cmg on to ur wish of seing No negative returns at all in long term investing, thts absurd. Even Warren Buffet is not lucky in tht front sometimes. Long term investing is all abt Wishing fr Happy Journey instead Happy Ending! :wink:

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GST collections misplaced. Is another case how our media twists facts.

If I pay GST I deduct input credit and pay remaining. This was twisted by media , for 95000 crores collection 65000 crores goes as input credit. This is wrong. You pay tax after deducting input credit.

http://www.livemint.com/Money/mu5xyHKq4aCdoeGOs9fMyH/GST-collection-worries-misplaced-UBS-report.html

Destocking in Apr June Qtr will take at least one Qtr to adjust. So Jul-Sep Qtr will reflect that.

You can see Auto Sales on Monday. That will tell clear picture .

Long term Investors can add more when market falls instead of exiting.

SIP is the best way.

https://www.amfiindia.com/mutual-fund

Meaning if SIP for stock market is it will come every month with 5% growth. What Fund Houses will do with money, put in Market only. So FII pullout is temporarily disrupts the market.

You can Hedge with Index Futures.

https://zerodha.com/varsity/chapter/hedging-futures/

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Nobody would know where the markets would head to & there is no expert in this market. But as i had told you in some other forum you should ask this question to yourself…do i believe in indian market & economy in long term?..if your answer is yes then go ahead & buy at every dips… You keep reading articles & spreading panic about markets to crash etc which i would say you should stop. If you want to consider my suggestion…watch for every index downward pivot breakouts & invest in stocks or MF. i’ve built a system based on a model but can’t share here as people would think i’m selling my system etc. Good luck…happy dassera !!

Yes I am aware of that negative returns are inevitable but when there is a broad chance of market slowdown and when I have a quite good portfolio (11% in 4 months isn’t bad IMHO), should I take some precaution measures in this current situation? So that I book profit now and wait for further market correction. Should I keep invested for next year or should I exit now and then re-enter when market settle down ?

@sabyasachi_sadhu

Have a look at this. It was my portfolio then. Now no portfolio. Unfortunately I quit it when market made double bottom last December. Our decision go like that.

Personal Portfolio

see prices of this stocks Now.

This is what long term investment is. You should not sell at every correction.

At that time I thought I can make more money in day trading than investment. But now I discovered that I am making more money to @nithin :grinning:

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If u r not comfortable in keeping ur portfolio, do a small mistake of booking 5% of profit out of 11% paper profit tht u r quoting. Then observe fr some days standing as a spectator with cash in hand. Afterwards u will only start preaching wht you shud hv done.

Remember, one cannot ‘Time’ the market. U can google out on the topic ‘Timing the Financial Market’.

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i was like this Sabyasachi 10 yrs back…but have moved on with some maturity. but i personally feel that you must always book partial profits at regular intervals & then reinvest on dips.

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This is an extracted image from commentary on Chapter 6 in Ben Graham’s Intelligent Investor book.

image

So decide how fast you wish to run in the long run :wink:

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Hi Sadhu ,

Where you invested that in last 4 month you got the 11% return , are you taking about equity because as I am invested in mutual fund since April 17 ( 5 months) and return s 1.76%.

Here is my portfolio SIP in Mutual Funds
Reliance Mid & Small Cap Fund - Direct Plan - Growth 2,000.00/permonths

Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund - Growth				1,000.00/permonths
				
				
Birla Sun Life Equity Fund - Direct Plan - Growth			      2,000.00/permonth
				
				
SBI Blue Chip Fund - Growth		2,000.00 /permonth

  DSP BlockRock Small and Mid Cap   3,000.00/permonth

 Franklin India Prima Plus   2000/month

Any Suggestion
Regards,
Vivek Chauhan

Wow :star_struck: I am so jealous now, just kidding :wink: but yes we all can replicate that kind of return in a long term horizon. Thanks @haribabu.

Hi, I had invested through @smallcase, returns are so far so good. I too invested in some mutual funds and returns are so-so so far.

, and here is my MF portfolio.

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No slow down seen in consumers spending.

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Yes I am too bullish on india’s growth story. And after hearing the report of Morgan Stanley on digitization my confidence increased many fold.

Bhai, being Indian, one FII(MorganStanley) report was needed to be gung-ho on Indian economy? In the report hv they explained why their folks r migrating somewhr else? Whr else they r getting attractive returns thn India? Can u provide the link to the report?

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Thanks,

Ridham Desai even predicted that BSE to touch 100000 mark in 5 years and not in 10 years, I may call this too much outspoken though it is possible if we can compound it by CAGR of 24.6%.

After September Auto Sales Numbers.