Weekly Trading Diary: 14th to 18th February 2022

Tradingqna · February 13, 2022, 11:57am

A thread for discussing all your trades, strategies, ideas, news, stories, etc.

Rising expectations of faster Federal Reserve tightening after the US inflation hit 40-year highs spooked the markets on Friday, ending up giving up all the gains made in the week and closing with modest losses.

US markets felt the most pain, sliding between 1% to 2.2%. Other major Asian markets (apart from the KOPSI), and European indices ended the week in green.

Realty, FMCG and IT were the top draggers in the week gone by, sliding between 2 to 2.5%. Metals was the only sector that managed to close the week with gains, up by 3.3%.

Things to watch out for in the week:

Shares of Vedant Fashions are scheduled to list on the exchanges on 16th December.

We’re in the final week of December quarter earnings; Here are some of the key earnings to watch out for:

14th Feb	15th Feb	16th Feb	17th Feb	18th Feb	19th Feb
Adani Enterprises	-	Ambuja Cements	Nestle India	-	-
Adani Wilmar
Balkrishna Industries
Coal India
Eicher Motors
Grasim Industries
Manappuram Finance

Key economic events for the week;

	14th Feb		15th Feb		16th Feb		17th Feb		18th Feb
India	CPI Inflation (JAN)	US	PPI (JAN)	China	CPI Inflation (JAN)	US	FOMC Meeting Minutes	US	Home Sales (JAN)
	WPI Inflation (JAN)	Japan	GDP (Q4)		PPI (JAN)		Jobless Claims	Japan	Core CPI Inflation (JAN)
Eurozone	Industrial Production (DEC)		Industrial Production (DEC)	US	Retail Sales (JAN)		Buliding Permits (JAN)	Britain	Retaul Sales (JAN)
		Eurozone	GDP (Q4)		Industrial Production (JAN)

What are you looking forward to in the coming week? Share below

Prakashsingh · February 14, 2022, 3:12am

I’ll look to short at 17650-700 levels and go long at lower levels close to 17200-100

Good Morning and Happy Valentine Day folks Market is in a mood to do explosive moves and is now reaching our levels of trgt in shorts from 17650 zones. My strategy today would be wait for sometime before initiating any fresh position as markets have lots of triggers to react to (some are sentimental like abg shipyard fraud news, some are current issues like russia ukraine tussle)

I want to be a daredevil and look for buying opportunities in case there is a deeper dip (somewhere near 16900-950). Before that, i’ll try to see if there is any strength in stocks and look for opportunity in stock specific action ( energy sector esp)

t7support · February 14, 2022, 3:15am

Am holding tight my put options.

Prakashsingh · February 14, 2022, 3:16am

Awesome. What targets are u looking forward to?

t7support · February 14, 2022, 3:21am

No targets. I will keep riding as long as Nifty keeps falling.
I.e Exit the current strike put and enter in to the next strike put every time the current put appreciates by Rs.100. I will exit and reverse if nifty crosses 17539 which is unlikely today.

Prakashsingh · February 14, 2022, 3:23am

Perfect

Prakashsingh · February 14, 2022, 12:20pm

Market , as expected reached these levels and infact closed near 16842, It has already become negative YTD today…and the pain may continue below 16800. but before that lets look at a quick dead cat bounce. Thats how im going to approach this trade. Strategy is to buy 17k call of march and sell 18k ce (450 - 120 = 330 being the net cost)

I’ll look to avg more if we get 16650 zones n then keep 30% of cost as SL

Tradingqna · February 14, 2022, 12:56pm

Nifty and Sensex tumbled more than 3% following the global sell-off sparked by tensions between Ukraine and Russia. US futures are down too, indicating a gap-down opening for US markets.

Brent Crude: 94.22 -0.23%
USD INR Spot:75.605 +0.30%
India 10Y Bond yield: 6.669 -0.43%

All sectoral indices ended the day in the red. The worst performers were Nifty PSU Bank, Realty, and Metal, falling more than 5% each.

Amongst the F&O stocks

Cummins India was the top gainer.
Metropolis Lab was the top loser.

Earnings Update:

Grasim: Net Profit: Rs. 522 cr 46% YoY; Revenue: Rs. 5,785 cr 56.5% YoY.

VST Tillers: Net Profit: Rs. 21 cr 32% YoY; Revenue: Rs. 208.4 cr 2.7%% YoY.

DCM Shriram: Net Profit: Rs. 24.2 cr 54.1% YoY; Revenue: Rs. 519.4 cr 5.8% YoY.

Manappuram: Net Profit: Rs. 261 cr 45.9% YoY; Revenue: Rs. 1,484.5 cr 9.7% YoY.

In the news

WPI inflation eased to 12.96% in Jan from 13.56% in the previous month. India’s wholesale price inflation rate eased in January but remained in double digits for the 10th consecutive month amid rising crude oil prices.

Tata Sons appoints Ilker Ayci CEO & MD of Air India. Ayci, was the Chairman of the Turkish Airlines, was on the board of the company prior to that.

Dabur India, India’s largest Ayurvedic company said it has become a complete plastic waste neutral firm in the country after collecting, processing, and recycling around 27,000 metric tonnes of post-consumer plastic waste during FY 21-22.

Reliance Jio has announced a partnership with Luxembourg-based business SES in satellite-based broadband communication. This would allow the company to offer next-generation broadband services that are both affordable and scalable.

India’s palm oil imports fell by 29.15% in January, while shipments of RBD palmolein rose, affecting domestic refineries, according to Solvent Extractors Association (SEA). India, the world’s leading vegetable oil buyer, imported 7,80,741 tonnes of palm oils in January 2021.

Around the world

Greece will repay the final tranches of bailout loans owed to the International Monetary Fund by the end of March, two years ahead of schedule, Finance Minister Christos Staikouras told Reuters on Monday.

The ruble slumped to a two-week low on Monday, before paring losses, as tensions over Russia’s military buildup near Ukraine enter a potentially decisive week

Prakashsingh · February 15, 2022, 8:39am

Market gave a cool 450 point move Im out near 17280

Jalwa of 200 DMA …dead cat bounces are definitely expected at such important levels

Tradingqna · February 15, 2022, 12:30pm

Nifty and Sensex rebounded from yesterday’s fall and surged by more than 3% after reports of easing tensions between Russia and Ukraine. US markets too, look set for a positive start.

Brent Crude: 93.53 -3.06%
USD INR Spot:75.33 -0.36%
India 10Y Bond yield: 6.679 +0.18%

All sectoral indices finished the day in positive territory. Nifty Auto and PSU Bank index were the top performers, both gaining around 4%.

Amongst the F&O stocks

LIC Housing Finance was the top gainer.
Manappuram Finance tanked by over 10% after poor Q3 performance.

Earnings Update:

Adani Wilmar: Net Profit: Rs. 211.41 cr 66% YoY; Revenue: Rs. 14,379 cr 40% YoY.

Balkrishna Industries: Net Profit: Rs. 329 cr 2% YoY; Revenue: Rs. 2,079 cr 39% YoY.

Coal India : Net Profit: Rs. 4,558 cr 48% YoY; Revenue: Rs. 28,433.5cr 20% YoY.

Eicher Motors : Net Profit: Rs. 456 cr 14.3% YoY; Revenue: Rs. 2,827.5cr 0.5 % YoY.

Spice Jet: Net Profit: Rs. 42.5 cr. against loss of 66.7 YoY; Revenue: Rs. 2,263 cr 33.8% YoY.

In the news

Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) on February 15 changed the requirement for listed companies to separate posts of chairperson and MD/CEO to voluntary from mandatory.

Owing to strong global orders, India’s merchandise exports rose by 25.3% in January this year as compared to January 2021. Impressively, exports also rose by nearly 33.2% as compared to January 2020, when the pandemic had struck and global trade had begun to be hit.

The information technology (IT) sector is set to become a $227bn industry in the current fiscal, registering a 15.5% growth, industry body NASSCOM said on Tuesday.

Around the world

Russia’s defence ministry spokesperson on Tuesday said the country was pulling back some of its forces near the Ukrainian border to their bases. The Krelim has also confirmed that troops are being pulled back, news agency AFP reported.

Chinese Stocks surged as The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) injected 300 billion yuan ($47.19 billion) through medium-term loans into the financial system on Tuesday, more than markets had expected while keeping the interest rate unchanged.

Prakashsingh · February 16, 2022, 4:40am

Good Morning Mitro

Looking at market action for an hour, prima facie , it seems like after 2 days of extraordinary violence, Market has sort of decided to some break price wise. Volatility chaalu hai.

I will give index trading a miss today and focus on stock specific action.

Prakashsingh · February 16, 2022, 10:42am

Extreme Volatility and Nifty ends at -30 points. There’s lot of news flow based moves happening in market esp related to russia and nato war. Always a sensible option to trade with less qty during extraordinary uncertain days.

Tradingqna · February 16, 2022, 12:20pm

Benchmark indices fell from their day’s highs in a volatile session, closing marginally lower. Dow and Nasdaq futures indicate a negative start for US markets.

Brent Crude: 94.09 +0.87%
USD INR Spot: 75.0725 -0.34%
India 10Y Bond yield: 6.688 +0.22%

On the sectoral front, Nifty Realty index was the highest gainer, surging over 1.1%. Nifty PSU Bank index was the top loser, down by 1.17%.

Amongst the F&O stocks

Crompton Greaves was the top gainer.
Balkrishna Industries was the top loser.

In the news

Reserve Bank of India extended the timeline by six months to September 30, 2022 for NBFCs to adhere to the new NPA recognition norms. Earlier the regulator had set March 31 deadline for non-bank lenders to upgrade NPAs only after all arrears and principal dues are paid.

Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices rose across the country on Wednesday after rates were hiked by 5.2% in sync with international oil price, putting pressure on the already strained balance sheets of airlines.

Country’s mineral production went up by 2.6% in December 2021 YoY, as the index of mineral production of mining and quarrying sector stood at 120.3 during the period under review there was a cumulative growth of 16% during April-December period of 2021-22 over the year-ago period.

Vedant Fashions made a decent debut, listing at an 8% premium to the issue price.

Around the world

Britain’s annual inflation rate rose in January to 5.5%, the highest level for almost 30 years, official data showed, heaping more pressure on the cost of living.

Intel agreed to buy Israeli chip company Tower Semiconductor for nearly $6bn, bolstering its plans to make more chips for other companies.

Russia said more of its forces surrounding Ukraine were withdrawing on Wednesday but NATO urged Moscow to prove it was pulling back, saying there were signs that more troops were on the way.

European natural gas prices slumped to 3-month lows and extended declines after Vladimir Putin said he backed a diplomatic solution to tensions with the U.S. over Ukraine.

Prakashsingh · February 17, 2022, 12:06pm

Same movement as yesterday. Volatile markets and little change in overall price

Tradingqna · February 17, 2022, 12:41pm

Equity benchmarks continue to remain volatile, closing lower for the second day running. US futures are trading lower, signaling a weak opening for US markets.

Brent Crude: 92.88 -2.04%
USD INR Spot: 75.11 +0.05%
India 10Y Bond yield: 6.674 -0.18%

All sectors except Nifty Energy and FMCG ended on the lower side. Nifty Bank and PSU Bank were the top losers, both down by over a percent each.

Amongst the F&O stocks

Shriram Transport Finance was the top gainer.
Muthoot Finance was the top loser.

Earnings Update:

Nestle: Net Profit: Rs. 386.66 cr 20% YoY; Revenue: Rs. 3,706.2cr 8.44% YoY.

In the news

The mobile user count in India fell by 1.28 crore in Dec 2021 compared to the previous month, with Jio and Vodafone Idea suffering subscriber losses, even as Bharti Airtel added customers, as per TRAI.

Gross NPAs of Housing Finance Companies rose to 3.3% in Dec. This rise is attributable to RBI’s Nov ‘21, clarification on recognition and calculation of NPAs, rather than any real mark-down in asset quality: Crisil.

Ashok Leyland expects turnaround in CV business, eyes 30% market share in FY23. It is also betting on the overall improvement in the economic situation and gradual easing of supply chain issues to cross 30% of the overall market share in the CV segment in 2022-23.

Around the world

European natural gas prices increase after two days of declines as the U.S. rejects Russia’s claims that it was pulling back troops from the border with Ukraine

The Philippine central bank kept policy rates unchanged at today’s policy meeting. BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno retained his dovish stance in 2022, signaling he would prefer to extend support to the fledgling economic recovery. With inflation expected to stay within target in the near term.

Turkey’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a second month on Thursday, as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government struggles to contain price surges that could threaten his two-decade rule.

Prakashsingh · February 18, 2022, 4:05am

Good Morning Folks,

One trend thats happening from last 2 days is …markets are in a range of 200 points, moving up and down and closing flat. It almost feels like market is waiting for clarity to emerge (on geopolitical front) before taking a clear direction.

Today being the weekly close, fear factor of carrying position over the weekend (where mondays are seeing good fall in the mrkt) need to be considered.

Everyone’s focusing on market. We will see what we can do in stocks. Im personally not trading in index. The range can be seen btwn 17100-17600 for the time being for this expiry.

jashjacob · February 18, 2022, 4:13am

May remain volatile, I have entered into a Nifty Call Spread during the IV increase aftermarket open.

Prakashsingh · February 18, 2022, 4:49am

With rangebound play and flat markets price wise, Is it possible that we may see a trending move in the second half? I’m starting to think about that possibility. (Im just not sure which way its gonna go, So ill give this trade a miss, but move toh banta hain)

t7support · February 18, 2022, 5:26am

Jahaan market jaayega vaham hum bhi jaayenge

AlgoEye · February 18, 2022, 5:50am

There is IV play going on ,it shoots ups and its melts too quickly ,perfect conditions for scalpers. Too volatile to predict