Weekly Trading Diary: 26th to 30th September 2022

Hello and welcome to the weekly trading diary, a thread for discussing your trades, strategies, ideas, news, stories, etc.



A quick overview of how the markets performed in the week gone by;

Indian benchmark indices extended losses for the second straight week as the sentiment in markets around the world remained downbeat. Nifty ended the week down by 1.13%, while Sensex dropped by around 1.25%.

Most of the sectoral indices ended the week in red, Energy, Realty PSU Bank and Nifty Bank were top losers, ending the week down by over 3% each. FMCG and Pharma were amongst the top gainers.



Here’s how the major global indices fared in the week ended September 23;



Things to watch out for in the coming week;

The key event to watch out for this week will be RBI’s interest rate decision by Friday, September 30. In the week gone by the US Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by another 75 basis points, this was followed by a 75 bps rate hike by the Swiss National Bank and a 50 bps hike by the Bank of England. Here’s what the interest rates look like across economies around the world;

Key macroeconomic events to watch for;

26th September 27th September 28th September 29th September 30th September
Japan Services PMI US Core Durable Goods Orders (AUG) Japan BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes US GDP Growth (Q2) India RBI Interest Rate Decision
New Home Sales (AUG) US Fed Chairman Powell Speaks Jobless Claims Japan Retail Sales (AUG)
CB Consumer Confidence (SEP) Pending Home Sales (AUG) Industrial Production (AUG)
Crude Oil Inventories China Manufacturing PMI (SEP)
Non-Manufacturing PMI (SEP)
Chinese Composite PMI (SEP)
Caixin Manufacturing PMI (SEP)
UK GDP Growth (Q2)
Eurozone CPI Inflation (SEP)

What are you looking forward to in the week? Share below and join the discussion :point_down:

2 Likes

Benchmark indices started the week negative, tumbling 1.80% following weak global signals. US markets look to be off to a bad start as well.

:oil_drum:Brent Crude: 85.55 -1.34%
:heavy_dollar_sign:USD INR Spot: 82.6225 0.78%
:scroll:India 10Y Bond yield: 7.366 -0.37%

Nifty 50 market breadth for the day;

Sectoral performance.

More stats at: stocks.zerodha.com

Amongst the F&O stocks

:chart_with_upwards_trend: Metropolis Lab was the top gainer.

:chart_with_downwards_trend: RBL Bank was the top loser.

:newspaper: In the news

E-commerce firms reported a 28% increase in orders as compared to the first 2 days of festival sales in 2021, a 32% jump in festival order volumes for tier three cities, and a 20% growth in tier two volumes. Tier one cities had a 28% uptick in order volume: Unicommerce

Corporate India is bullish about its strong business performance and expected to dole out a double-digit salary hike of as much as 10.4% in 2023, According to Aon Plc’s latest Salary Increase Survey in India.

DoT expects to exceed earnings in FY23 after exceeding the budgeted target of revenue receipts from the telecom sector in FY22, with earnings of Rs. 67,000 cr as against the target of Rs 52,806 cr.

Hindalco fell nearly 6% after one of the biggest clients of subsidiary Novelis Corporation cut its earnings outlook due to the ongoing slowdown in the global economy.

WTI crude fell below 80$ and Brent Oil prices fell below 85$ on fears of lower fuel demand from an expected global recession sparked by rising worldwide interest rates and surging U.S. dollar which may limit the ability of non-dollar consumers to purchase crude.

1 Like

Benchmark indices closed the day with a slight dip after failing to hold onto gains in a volatile session. Dow and Nasdaq futures indicate a good start for US markets.

:oil_drum:Brent Crude: 83.82 1.16%
:heavy_dollar_sign:USD INR Spot: 81.55 -0.10%
:scroll:India 10Y Bond yield: 7.297 -0.84%

Nifty 50 market breadth for the day;

Sectoral performance.

More stats at: stocks.zerodha.com

Amongst the F&O stocks

:chart_with_upwards_trend: Mahanagar Gas was the top gainer.

:chart_with_downwards_trend: Indiabulls Housing Finance was the top loser.

:newspaper: In the news

Of the 12.2 million jobs added in the formal sector in 2021-22. 40% were in states with the highest per capita income, such as Delhi, Karnataka, Haryana, Telangana, and Gujarat. The bottom five states, Odisha, Assam, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar accounted for 8.7 percent: EPFO

Tata Group and Singapore Airlines are working on merging their airline businesses Air India and Vistara and housing them under a new joint venture.

Telcom operators estimate that they will be spending between $1.5- 2.5 billion in India on optical fiber cables in the next 3-4 years in a bid to offer 5G services.

Torrent Pharma announced that it will acquire 100% stake in Curatio Healthcare for Rs. 2,000 crores to strengthen its presence in the dermatology segment.

Shares of Dish TV fell by over 6% after shareholders of the company rejected audited statements for the last two fiscals, appointments of a new auditor, and an independent director.

Benchmark indexes tumbled nearly 1% following concerns over the recession and weak global trends. Dow and Nasdaq futures indicate a weak opening for US markets.

:oil_drum:Brent Crude: 86.14 0.56%
:heavy_dollar_sign:USD INR Spot: 81.94 0.44%
:scroll:India 10Y Bond yield: 7.336 0.60%

Nifty 50 market breadth for the day;

Sectoral performance.

More stats at: stocks.zerodha.com

Amongst the F&O stocks

:chart_with_upwards_trend: India Cements was the top gainer.

:chart_with_downwards_trend: Punjab National Bank was the top loser.

:newspaper: In the news

59% of all smartphone users in India intend to upgrade to 5G over the next 12 months and are willing to shell out a 45% premium for a plan: Ericsson Report.

The government extended its program to give free food to the needy by 3 months at a cost of Rs 44,762 crore. The Cabinet also approved a 4% rise in Dearness Allowance and Dearness Relief to central government workers and pensioners starting July 1, 2022.

Dabur India has entered the Rs 5,600-crore premium tea market with the recent launch of Dabur Vedic Tea, a premium category black tea under the health supplements segment, as it looks to get aggressive in the competitive packaged tea market.

Asian Paints shares hit an eight-month high of Rs 3,559, gaining almost 3% on as falling raw material costs are expected to aid margin expansion for the paint maker.

The Bank of England says that it shall carry out temporary purchases of long-dated UK bonds and delay planned sales of debt, causing the pound to spike briefly and bonds to surge.

India needs to invest around USD 10 billion to boost cell manufacturing and refine raw materials in order to meet domestic demand for lithium-ion batteries for electric automobiles by 2030, according to a report by management consulting firm Arthur D Little.

Benchmark indexes slid after a positive start, closing lower for the seventh consecutive trading session ahead of the RBI’s monetary policy decision. US futures are trading lower.

:oil_drum:Brent Crude: 89.74 0.66%
:heavy_dollar_sign:USD INR Spot: 81.86 -0.10%
:scroll:India 10Y Bond yield: 7.34 0.10%

Nifty 50 market breadth for the day;

Sectoral performance.

More stats at: stocks.zerodha.com

Amongst the F&O stocks

:chart_with_upwards_trend: Abbott India was the top gainer.

:chart_with_downwards_trend: Aarti Industries was the top loser.

:newspaper: In the news

Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari announced the delay of the implementation of regulations mandating six airbags in all automobiles until October 2023, allowing the sector a one-year extension due to global supply chain limitations.

Just 14 companies raised Rs 35,456 crore through main-board primary share sales in the first half of the fiscal year, down 32% from the same period last year when 25 issues had collected Rs 51,979 crore, according to Prime Database.

Vedanta said it has raised its green energy sourcing to 1 GW for various businesses and is seeking bids for an additional 500 MW of renewable energy. The company aims to use up to 2.5 GW of renewable energy by 2030.

BHEL gained more than 2.5% after receiving an order from NTPC to build the 2x660 MW Talcher Thermal Power Project Stage-III.

Japan’s bond market liquidity has dropped to levels last seen in April 2011 as a result of growing worries that rate hikes overseas will lead to a global economic downturn: Bloomberg report.

FII Long Exposure at just 13%, This is the lowest ever exposure at the start of a series by FIIs.

How do you see it ? Glass half full or half empty ?

Benchmark indices rallied over 1.75% after the RBI announced a 50 bps rate hike, snapping a seven-day losing streak. US futures are trading slightly higher.

:oil_drum:Brent Crude: 86.95 -1.67%
:heavy_dollar_sign:USD INR Spot: 81.34 -0.64%
:scroll:India 10Y Bond yield: 7.399 0.80%

Nifty 50 market breadth for the day;

Sectoral performance.

More stats at: stocks.zerodha.com

Amongst the F&O stocks

:chart_with_upwards_trend: India Cements was the top gainer.

:chart_with_downwards_trend: Indraprastha Gas was the top loser.

:newspaper: In the news

India’s current account deficit (CAD) in April-June was $23.9 billion, or 2.8% of GDP, much higher than the $13.4 billion, or 1.5% of GDP, in January-March 2022: RBI

Gold prices have dipped about 8% in the quarter and are set for their biggest quarterly fall since early 2021 due to aggressive interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and commitment to deliver more.

If the rupee continues to fall in value, the government may target some “non-essential imports” through duty rises in order to limit the widening current account deficit: Financial Express report.

The southwest monsoon season in the country ended with 7% extra rainfall, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), however, the rice-growing states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand reported deficient rains, having a direct impact on the farm output.

Residential property sales jumped 41% to 88,234 units in seven major cities from July to September this year, according to property consultant Anarock, while new launches increased 45% to 93,490 units from 64,560 units.

Commercial office sector grew by 29% YoY and transaction volumes stood at 16.1 million square feet (mn sq ft) across the top eight cities in India during Q3 2022. The transaction volumes have surpassed the pre-pandemic quarterly average of 2019 by 6%: Report by Knight Frank India.

The euro zone’s economic crisis intensified with the first ever reading of double-digit inflation as consumer prices surged 10%, piling pressure on the European Central Bank to keep raising interest rates aggressively.

They could be opening positions next week. Laying off for the weekend :smiley: