Weekly Trading Diary: 28th February to 4th March 2022

A thread for discussing all your trades, strategies, ideas, news, stories, etc.

A quick recap of what the markets were up do in week gone by.

It was an intense week for equity markets around the world, caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine which resulted in heavy sell-off in markets across the world. Though the markets did see a sharp rebound on Friday.

For the week, Nifty ended 3.6% lower while Sensex stumbled 3.4% following the week global sentiment as all the major world indices apart from Nasdaq and S&P 500 ended the week in negative territory.

All sectoral indices closed the week in deep red.

Here’s what the institutions have been up to:

Important economic events to watch out for in the week:

28 Feb 1 Mar 2 Mar 3 Mar 4 Mar
India GDP Q3 YoY US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) US Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb) US Fed Chair Powell Testifies US Unemployment Rate (Feb)
Infrastructure Output YoY China Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Eurozone CPI Inflation ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
Japan Retail Sales (Jan) Chinese Composite PMI (Feb) Britain Annual Budget Release Initial Jobless Claims
Industrial Production (Jan) Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Services PMI (Feb)
Japan Services PMI (Feb) Eurozone ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
Britan Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Services PMI (Feb)
Germany Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Markit Composite PMI (Feb)
Britain Composite PMI (Feb)
Services PMI (Feb)

What are you looking forward to in the coming week? Share below :point_down:

Nifty 100 Equal weight indices closed below major trend line , I assume on last Friday market action was just a pull back , more downside expected by coming trading days on Major Indices, :thinking:

Good Morning Folks

Nifty is currently moving in the range of 16400-800

As long as we are above 16400, we can consider looking for an upside move.

Im keeping an eye on energy stocks which may go up based on this news.

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Tomorrow is a holiday . Note this before taking positions in options especially the current weekly options.

Good Volatility Contraction in NIFTY in intraday TF.

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Nifty & Sensex rebounded from the day’s lows to close the day higher, gaining over 0.70%, in a volatile session. US futures indicate a gap-down opening for US markets.

:oil_drum: Brent Crude: 98.45 +0.05%
:heavy_dollar_sign: USD INR Spot: 75.34 +0.07%
:scroll: India 10Y Bond yield: 6.77 +0.31%

Almost all sectoral indices ended the day in uptrend. Nifty Metal being the biggest gainer, up nearly 5%. Nifty Bank and Auto were the worst performers, both falling more than 0.60%.

Amongst the F&O stocks

:chart_with_upwards_trend: GAIL was the top gainer.
:chart_with_downwards_trend: Biocon was the top loser.

:newspaper: In the news

India’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a slower pace at 5.4% in the October-December quarter, primarily due to lackluster manufacturing output and investment according to the data released by the government’s statistics office.

Madhabi Puri Buch has on Monday been appointed as the chairperson for market regulator SEBI. The Appointments Committee of Cabinet has approved Buch’s appointment for an initial period of three years.

India and Japan on Monday renewed their bilateral swap arrangements to the extent of $75 billion, a RBI statement said.

Shares of metal companies rallied in Monday’s trade, in an otherwise subdued market, with the Nifty Metal index surging over 3% as sanctions against Russia raised the possibility of supply disruptions. This, in effect, will push up prices.

Future Group companies skyrocketed as Reliance took over operations of 200 Future Group’s stores.

Biocon Biologics, which has said it will acquire the biosimilars business of Viatris Inc for $3.335bn. Will file for an IPO in 18-24 months, executive chairperson Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw said on February 28.

:earth_americas: Around the World

British Petroleum shares fell nearly 7% on Monday after the British energy major revealed plans to sell its nearly 20% stake in Russian oil giant Rosneft over the weekend following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Russia’s central bank announced Monday it was raising its key interest rate to 20% from 9.5% as the West pummeled the country with sanctions over invasion of Ukraine.

Russia’s ruble plunged nearly 30% against the dollar after world powers imposed fresh, harsher sanctions on Moscow. The US & EU said they would exclude some Russian banks from the international bank payments system SWIFT. Also banning all transactions with Russia’s central bank.

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Doing great so far

Today seems to the first day when midcap outperformance is clearly visible in the market. Good signs going forward.

Zone is intact.

PSUs are doing great. can keep an eye for short term outperformance. ITC looks good as well for short term.

Disc : No recommendation only observation

Another day, another VCP.

Monday setup was better and tighter in a uptrend.


Benchmark indices recovered from the day’s low but ended the volatile session in negative due to geopolitical fears. US futures are on a rise, signaling a good start for US markets.

:oil_drum: Brent Crude: 110.42 +2.96%
:heavy_dollar_sign: USD INR Spot: 75.7 +0.48%
:scroll: India 10Y Bond yield: 6.816 +0.68%

On the sectoral front, Nifty Metal index gained the highest, surging over 4%. Nifty Auto and Bank were the top loser, falling by more than 2%.

Amongst the F&O stocks

:chart_with_upwards_trend: Coal India was the top gainer.
:chart_with_downwards_trend: Maruti Suzuki was the top loser.

:newspaper: In the news

India’s manufacturing sector activities expanded in February as output and new orders grew at accelerated rates, supported by favorable demand conditions. PMI was at 54.9 in February, up from 54.0 in January.

Keeping its robust collections intact, the Govt. collected Rs. 1,33,026 cr. GST in Feb. This is the fifth time that the GST collection has crossed the Rs. 1.3 lakh cr. mark. The GST cess collection crossed the Rs. 10,000 cr. mark for the first time since its implementation.

Shares of two-wheeler companies slipped today after the firms reported lower than expected February wholesale volumes.

Religare Ent says the company has become debt-free, to foray into a new financial business. It has made the payment of ₹185.5 cr to subsidiary Religare Finvest. The company plans to get into asset reconstruction, insurance banking, and digital wealth management, among others.

Reliance Retail Ventures, a subsidiary of Reliance Industries and the holding company of all retail companies within the group, has invested in Abraham & Thakore Exports for a majority stake.

Coal India surged over 8.5% as the company produced 64.3 million tonnes (MTs) of coal in February, about 4% growth 61.9 MTs in the corresponding month year ago.

:earth_americas: Around the World

Wheat prices have climbed to it’s highest levels in more than a decade, with traders concerned about global supply disruption as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine advanced. Prices soared to their highest in 14 years, thereby threatening to push food price inflation even higher.

Oil benchmarks are hitting multiple price and spread milestones across several key markets. Brent Crude topped $112 a barrel, the highest since 2014, shrugging off news that several countries plan to release a record 60m barrels of strategic petroleum reserves to cool prices.

Eurozone inflation reached a new record high in Feb, jumping to 5.8% on energy and goods inflation increases.

Good Morning Folks

Bank Nifty was underperforming massively as crude has breached 115$ levels. With metal and energy stocks surging, today’s weekly expiry’s focus is likely to be on financials and Bank Nifty. If the initial weakness can be managed in these sectors, we may most likely seen an explosive expiry on the upside. But as we are living in an extraordinarily uncertain times when it comes to newsflow, the range needs to be respected with 16400 the support and 16800 the resistance zone.

Bank Nifty volatility
35000 CE

3.11 pm 0.50 low
3.15 pm 123 high
3.28 pm 0.05 again

Market is still in the range

This theme is playing out. The trend is likely to change only once we get some relief from the global front.

I had sold 4 lots of Bank Nifty 3rd March 35000 PE in NRML at price 55 and did not squared off my position ?
The Last traded price was 54.2 only.
Will there be any settlement charges on this position ?

What happens in the settlement of this option done by zerodha ?

Please suggest

Nifty and Sensex retraced from day’s highs, closing the volatile session down by 0.65% following weak global cues. US futures are down, indicating a weak start for US markets.

:oil_drum: Brent Crude: 114.7 +0.16%
:heavy_dollar_sign: USD INR Spot: 75.91 +0.28%
:scroll: India 10Y Bond yield: 6.827 +0.19%

Among the sector indices, Nifty Energy led the way with a 1.83% gain, while Nifty Auto was the worst performer, sliding 2.28%.

Amongst the F&O stocks

:chart_with_upwards_trend: Vodafone Idea was the top gainer surging 5.75% ahead of its board meeting today to consider fund raising.

:chart_with_downwards_trend: Gujarat Gas was the top loser, down by over 7%.

:newspaper: In the news

Indian 10-year bond yield at 1-month high tracking an uptick in global crude oil prices, while expectations of a March rate increase by the US Federal Reserve were reaffirmed by comments from its chairman, pushing up US yields.

Bajaj Hindusthan board grants in-principle approval for evaluating various options for capital restructuring, resolution plan for debt, merger of power business in the group, demerger of its existing operations, and other corporate restructuring.

Adani Ports says, during the month of February 2022, it handled cargo volumes of 24.15 mt, registering a growth of 14.4% on a year-on-year basis.

As the Omicron phase in India declines, film exhibitors are beginning to see the fastest recovery, thanks to states lifting restrictions and a strong content lineup. In most markets, theatres are now permitted to run at full capacity.

Reliance has signed to form a JV with Sanmina to build an electronics manufacturing hub in Chennai through an investment in the US-based company’s Indian unit. This aids its plans to become a global player in the sale of 5G technology and telecom gear.

:earth_americas: Around the World

The Hungarian central bank hikes its key interest rate more than expected, ditching previous monetary-policy guidance to shore up one of the world’s hardest-hit currencies.

Turkey’s annual inflation jumped more than expected to a two-decade high of 54.4% in February, fuelled by a crash in the lira last year and soaring commodity prices that are expected to climb higher due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Zinc reached its highest since 2007 and other industrial metals extended a powerful rally fueled by trade turmoil and rising energy costs amid Russia’s increasing economic isolation.

The euro slid to its lowest level in almost six years against Britain’s pound and was pinned near 21-month lows versus the dollar as a fresh surge in energy prices heightened worries about the euro area economic outlook.

Sector outperforming market big time

PSUs too are outperforming. Our fav ITC is doing well too.

Range broken. Time to wait for close above the range for a bull trader.

Stocks are doing well and may continue to outperform atleast till UP election event me thinks.

Benchmark indices remained choppy, closing negative for the third straight day due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis and rising crude prices.

:oil_drum: Brent Crude: 112.5 +1.91%
:heavy_dollar_sign: USD INR Spot: 76.16 0.33%
:scroll: India 10Y Bond yield: 6.815 -0.16%

Majority of sectoral indices ended the day in the red, apart from Nifty Media, which merely gained 0.14%. Nifty Metal and Auto index were the biggest losers, falling more than 3%.

Amongst the F&O stocks

:chart_with_upwards_trend: Strides Pharma was the top gainer.
:chart_with_downwards_trend: MCX was the top loser.

:newspaper: In the news

Domestic steelmakers have hiked the prices of hot-rolled coil and TMT bars by up to Rs. 5,000 per tonne as the supply chain is being impacted amid ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

India’s services activity grew moderately in February after falling for 3 consecutive months following lifting restrictions on contact-intensive sectors. The Purchasing Managers Index increased from 51.5 to 51.8 in February.

Total vehicle retail sales in February were down 9.2% YoY & down 20.65% vs Feb 2020. Demand for PVs continues to remain strong. Russia-Ukraine crisis & rising oil prices bring new set of challenges, FADA reports.

Hero MotoCorp has unveiled a new brand Vida, for its emerging mobility solutions and upcoming electric vehicles. The first electric vehicle under the Vida brand will be officially unveiled on July 1, 2022.

:earth_americas: Around the World

Gold Surged past $1950 on French warning to prepare for the worst of the Russia-Ukraine war.

Oil prices reversed from 14-year highs on hopes for a revived deal to restrict Iran’s ability to develop nuclear weapons that also would allow the Middle Eastern country to increase crude exports.

This played out pretty well . ITC is up from 212-213 to 236++ (Up 10 days in a row !!! ) What needs to be seen is how and when it will breakout above 240 zones :slight_smile: