No clear cut answer to this question, but when i take position at 3.15 pm , certain things i look, why markets are increasing or decreasing, valuations, call or put writing where happening ( aggressive writing also look out, e.g. Before the start of nov month expiry, aggressive call writing can be seen in even in the money calls though nifty at 8100, call writing from 7300 to 8000 is observed, ) whats going on in world, usa market behaviour, why markets are increasing or decreasing there, if there is any useful data to come out on next day or in evening, if rally is suckers rally or counter rally then any momentum left and what india vix and cboe vix stating, i like to buy puts when vix reaches low level of 13 or 14, i give to best thing that whether market rally comes to end or whether rally will start, nobody knows this but lets come out of crowd, with vix you cam even say that enough of rally and enough of fall and can become cautious, dude take decisions before the crowd knows about it, vix is best thing or you can call even the greatest thing to understand market top and bottom, i will give u example , every experts are bullish on govt bonds, they think that fed rate hike is jol jall and nothing will happen, i shorted govt bonds when yiels is at approx7.53, now yield at 7.67 and bonds from 103 to 101