When we can say a structural bull market ends?. A signal like close below 200 day moving average or a death cross
What is the failure signal of a structural bull Market? Below 200 day moving average or a death cross?
If you want to quantify this, yes a move below 200 day MA can signal some sort of bearishness. Even a simple glance at 52 week high and low should help. On a qualitative basis you really need to develop a sense to guage the underlying market sentiment. This is hard to do as it requires years of market experience.
Adding to what Karthik sir has said, when you are using a calculated level, like 200 EMA or a Fibonacci, just remember the probability factor of it. No calculated level gives you the exact trend changing trigger. I am not a mechanical trader and I don’t know exactly how people use indicators. Im just sharing my opinion.
Hope it helps.
If you want to confirm a downtrend, then use this way which I have checked and found useful.
In my excel sheet (Nifty Excel sheet-Lite version available at http://blog.wayanad.co.in/downloads/), Open price of 6-May-2015 was a bit above D37 (EMA=8343.85) and D36 (SMA=8326). The price went down and I waited until it crosses 8326 and bought 7800PE while Nifty was at 8320. Most of the times, a bounce will occur at EMA or SMA levels. So you have to wait the next support to break for a confirmed Put option purchase. I bought 7800PE at 20.50 it went upto 61 same day.
Also through my experience, I learned that either EMA or SMA is hit, then average of both (D38) will certainly hit. Eg: 5-May-2015. Opened at 8350, Nifty went upto 8397.50 from 8335 after touching EMA (8337.54). The Average(EMA&SMA) was 8320.19 and Nifty came back from 8397 levels upto 8309 levels to cover the Average. Note that the SMA 8302 wasn’t covered on that day. It bounced back without hitting 8302 upto closing LTP of 8364.90