What is wrong with my technical analysis?

I think you tried to code your TA knowledge and jumped on to apply it , ignoring simple things, nothing works 100% but simple things works better , TA helps up to a certain level , rest is trade management , if you look at the chart , price was way above the SMA in other words say above the Mean’.


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Thanks to those who replied.

Yes I do understand nobody can succeed 100% of the time and have seen the learn, adapt and improvise :wink:

I asked this question coz I failed at my first attempt at trying a systemic approach. That too it was an unexpected fall. So just wanted to check with others who are more experienced to see if I am doing something terribly wrong.

1 thing I learned from Gautam’s response is the time factor which I would glance over but didn’t put much weight over it. Would look at that going forward.

Any other tips/feedback welcome.

I think one of the best way to figure out about the efficacy of your strategy is to backtest it. I have been effectively using @Streak for this purpose.

hi, i made that as a satirical response, for those , who have feelings of self doubt and seem nothing is working.

Sometimes, you need to look harder in the same charts. And looking harder takes time and passion. Without passion,you will never be able to create the necessary time.

Everyone has a different way of clicking in the markets. Make trading personal. You cannot copy someone in this business.

You have to be the mechanic. If the car breaks down, well, you know where it went wrong.

For people, who keep asking questions, why this doesn’t work,a human baby, well my baby took t 2 years to walk after occasional falls.

We all come here as a baby, and you can’t expect much at this stage. The answers are within you, though it might seem people are doing great. They all have their own stories. We never know.

Just give dedication and time. This is like an art. You have to love the art to perform.

Messi trained for 14 years, to reached that level what we know now. That’s what i recollect.

And a human baby of 10 years is still a baby. Be humble, be money smart and keep trying. Most will quit, it’s okay, their calling is different. Atleast they tried.

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first break outs are always false :slight_smile:

people generally tend to ignore the person in the mirror. Hope, this page helps to remind we are human and our brain was not build for trading.

Yet, we have to muscle memory it somehow.

Sir I understand all the philosophy of having patience, hardwork, spending time etc. You have right to be philosophical and that’s part of the answer but I am here to learn where did I go wrong. Understand the intent.

Since you are quoting sports let me try to draw analogy using the same. When Wasim Akram was asked what difference do you see between current Indian and Pakistani players. His reply was, Indian bowlers wanted to learn and improve and would always try to talk to me asking for help and insights. Pakistani players wouldn’t even acknowledge my presence.

I am just trying to consult a Wasim Akram here to seek direction knowing fully well hard work, dedication and commitment is my look out.

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if you had taken intraday trade in the first few mins. there was an RSI divergence in 5 and 15 min timeframe., right at the breakout candle above previous day high.

BTW, everything looks logical in hindsight. I have done the same mistake in ADANI ENT. So relax, have SL and trade again.

Nothing is wrong, some strategies don’t work at all times. So, all you need to consistently learn from mistakes and grow with it. This will help you in cracking technical analysis at your fingertips.

There are mainly 3 stages of Technical Analysis -

  1. Performance
  2. Levels
  3. Indicators

Think of your stock into these 3 practical aspects so that you gain better insights.

How many time frame you have checked? Time frame also is very very important criteria which comes under technical analysis. Did you check 1 hour time frame? I have crossed check as per you data in 1 hour time frame. In that chart i can clearly see that the candle formation from 10:15 to 11:15 is “shooting star” and this formation in uptrend is the sign of bearish reversal. You should have exited from this point by taking small profit (I am considering you are seating in front of your system).
If you are long term investor and do not have so much time then you should wait it may come upward, no need to worry.
But remember candle is very important factor here.

There is nothing wrong, price could have continued, this is the problem with stocks making all time high you dont know from which price it will reverse. Personally i wud wait for a pullback to 1300, breakout level. Best bet

No analysis is 100% effective ever. Dont you think if technical analysis gave full-proof results every trader around the world would be doing it now? The thing is TA can give you great idea about when to enter and exit trades, but always try to look at the macro environment. Always look for news regarding that company before you enter into position. It may have very possible been in an overbought range when you entered and hence the price corrected itself. Moreover even when considering breakouts, I guess you used indicators. It is always advisable to fully understand the indicators first before entering into position. Certain indicators work only in certain situations. Make sure you follow and understand them correctly before using them.

If so every body uses Fundas!! TA does not considers news !!

Question: What is your timeframe? Going by your checklist, you’re probably not day trading so your timeframe is at least a few days. If thats the case then an entry at 1500+ is kinda too high

Ask yourself- at what price would the pattern you’re trading in ASTRAL have failed? I think you’ll conclude that your risk is too high

Point 2: Regardless of this, any strategy is just a way to make a bet. And bets fail. Which is why you need to minimize risk in order to stay convex (goes back to the point above)

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Nothing. you did nothing wrong.

After all technical analysis the chances are still 50/50.

Good luck.

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Intraday is a b****. It’s not for a beginner unless one has steely nerve, machine-like discipline and a very deep pocket. Stop it and try normal CnC till you are consistently profitable. Then start with a mix, e.g., 20% fund intraday and 80% CnC.

A wise man once said we use too many indicators. He recommended - hold your breath - ONE indicator or max two. But I’m comfortable with about four, which may be a bit too many.

You’ll be surprised to know that too many indicators produce an overall loss as you’ll be stopped from taking many juicy trades. I tested this theory in Zerodha back tests and it’s true. The purer I make it, the more lossy it becomes.

Supports/Resistances/Pivot Points are unthinkably important. Always respect them, particularly in higher time frames. I will like to add EMA 200, which is a strong support/resistance.

Check this out in your charts:

Supertrend 21,4 (suggested by Mr. Indrajit Mukherjee), a daily chart, Heiken-Ashi, Stochastics 14, and get in at the first bar when SuperT is starting. Consult 1 min chart to fix the exact time of entry. Stoch should not be pitted against.

Tell us what you think.

Good luck!!!

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Thank you all, who have taken out time to reply and share their perspective. I have learnt a lot from your replies.

I was into swing and not an intraday trade. Moreover I realised that I have a lot more to learn before jumping the gun and start trading. Need to test my strategy and paper trade for sometime + back test to get comfortable.

So am learning from all your answers and also have gone back to learn this subject better before I blow up money.

You check the chart once again. When you entered at Rs 1500 RSI was at its peak and if you had RSI indicator it fell down from the peak which is quite obvious. You can use RSI indicator with settings overbought at 60 and oversold at 40 which will give correct time for buy. Further you can add super trend indicator which will show buy/sell signal. Over and above to all proper stop loss is a must to save from loss.

emotions are a big deal in trading and they impact all our trading decisions. when we enter a trade, to risk management, trade management, dealing with drawdowns during a trade, and exiting trades. Thus, the first thing you need to do is to make sure that emotions are influencing your trading decisions as little as possible. This is far more important than the question of which pattern or indicator to use.