When should you EXIT a Stock ? Fundamental Doubt!

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When should you ‘Exit’ a stock ?

People always talk on which stocks to buy, at what price to buy, Valuations, P/E, P/B and what not! A lot of so called ‘Fundamental Analysis’ is done in the background. (By browsing various websites like Moneycontrol.com & Screener.com to name a few (BullShit)

But, wait a moment! Just think, the amount of research you do while entering a stock, do you do it while exiting ? Or do you book profits when a stock is up 60-70% or at its 52 week high ?:thinking:

Let’s find out!

Imagine a scenario.

You bought 10 stocks of a company at price Rs 1000 today. Further, lets also assume that you have done a good research and the stock is fundamentally very strong.

Next morning, the stock price zooms to Rs 1100 (+10%). What will you do? Will you sell the stock and exit?

Now, let’s move to day two. The stock price now rose to Rs 1210 (Wow! +10% again!).

What will be your next move ?

In general, as per Investing Psychology, when prices of a stock rise like this, the ‘greed & fear’ becomes in-charge of your actions. Here, you might think that let’s book some profit as you have already gained Rs 210 per share (+20%). What if the stock prices fell tomorrow? It’s better to book some profits and will enter again in the stock when the price is low.

But, while doing so you are missing out few points. Let me highlight them:

You have researched the stock carefully and the stock has a potential to give huge returns. It might become a multi-bagger in the future. Why do you want to book a profit of +20%, when you can get +1000% profits?
You might also be thinking that you will enter the stock again when the price is low. What if the stock price never comes down? I mean, the company is fundamentally strong, and might give brilliant results in future. Why do you want to jump from the running train and want to catch it again?
Let’s imagine the scenario that you re-entered the stock. Do you know in such scenario you have to give the brokerage and other charges 4 times? I mean, 2 times when you first bought and sold the stock. And next 2, when you re-enter and will sell in future. Total 4 times brokerage. (:roll_eyes: Ok I know this will not hurt you much if your broker is Zerodha as they charge zero brokerage on Equity Delivery – Link is given below if you would like to open an account)
Lastly, do you know that you have to pay capital gain tax of +15% for short term gains?
Overall, it’s not logical to sell the stocks if fundamentals are strong just to book some short term profit. Look at the bigger picture. Haven’t you ever wondered why the great investor’s like Warren Buffet, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala always invest for a long term ?

Next, you might say that the above case is a typical situation. Chill! I didn’t explained when to sell the stock yet!

Here are three cases you should actually sell the stock.

When the fundamental of the stock changes: For example, the company starts underperforming quarter-by-quarter, the non performing assets (NPA) of banking companies starts increasing at high rate etc.
When you find a better stock: If you find a company with better fundamentals, better performance and you do not have extra money to invest in your budget, then you should sell that stock and grab the better opportunity.
When you need the money: Do not sell the stocks just to keep the money in your saving account. Sell the stocks when you need the money like paying for a new house, new car, your kids tuition fee etc.
Overall however, keep this in mind that the holding period of a good stock is ‘forever’.

Invest for long term and enjoy the ride!

The ‘good feeling’ that you get if you are holding a MRF or Eicher Motors share will make your life longer by say 5 years! Just kidding. Bad Joke!

Cheers!

Please check the above article that I have written. Also, please post your views and opinions.
Regards,
Tapan.

Cheers!

4 Likes
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can you summarize your thoughts here?

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Sell a good company stock only if you find a better option or the company is doing bad or you need the money , otherwise you can hold it for a life time. Never sell a good company stock inorder to keep the money in your SB /FD

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I know it is a valid argument but here are my thoughts

  1. We trade price , not fundamental , not any indicator or volume … what I mean to say we get money when price goes up … when earnings go up and price is already factored in … price stays sideways so no gain …
  2. We cannot know all the fundamentals . Fundamental is the business data , which includes factors on which company have control and also factors on which company don’t have control … and there are some interesting correlation which we might have never heard of … there can be global events also which governs faith of the company … so we might not have relevant data to make sound desicion of exit …
  3. Exit and money management are more important than entry…
  4. Growth Stocks on the uprun have huge momentum and t 50% to 70% of them correct more than 50% in price in relatively faster time before fundamentals looks bad …
  5. We can certainly buy stock on fundamental …but without proper momentum our money might be stuck for ever …
  6. Fundamental don’t move price … it is the anticipation of earning which moves price … how anticipation is factored I is tough to know …so company with good fundamentals may not give good returns
  7. As price factors everything , problems in fundamental are much obvious in price way earlier than actual earning report realise , may be due insider or promoter stake selling
  8. So in my opinion it is good idea to keep technical as tool to gauge validity of fundamental … If company is having good fundamental and good earnings then price should go up … but if it isn’t there are some thing we might be missing …
    Good luck
4 Likes
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Good post but i still feel there has to be an exact coded exit strategy.

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I am more inclined towards discretionary strategy which will keep me around 3 times my avg gain !! Mechanical systems are hard to trade psychologically !! due to the shakeouts and draw downs !!

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:-1: Sorry don’t agree with you. I made my corpus just because of I am a long time investor. Buy business when you think you are buying it for forever.

1 Like
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what method do u use for technical exit ?/

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following Moving averages for entry and exit with another supporting indicator like macd that’s it.