The Timeline
Global population:
1 billion - 1804
2 billion - 1927, 123 years later
3 billion - 1960, 33 years later
4 billion - 1974, 14 years later
5 billion - 1987, 13 years later
6 billion - 1999, 12 years later
7 billion - 2011, 12 years - later
8 billion - 2022, 11 years later
As per the UN’s report, Here are some of the key trends when it comes to population growth:
Expected growth trend till 2050
Basically, The expectation going forward is that there will be population growth, albeit at a slower pace.
Here are some trends to keep an eye on ----
Declining fertility
The fertility level, or the average number of births per woman over a lifetime, has fallen markedly over
recent decades in many countries. Two-thirds of all people globally live in a country or area where fertility
is below 2.1 births per woman, which is roughly the level required for populations with low mortality to
stabilize in the long run. In 2021, the average global fertility rate stood at 2.3 births per woman, falling from
about 5 births per woman in the mid-twentieth century .
global total fertility in 2050 is expected to lie between 1.88 and 2.42 births per woman.
Higher Life expectancy
-
Global life expectancy at birth reached 72.8 years in 2019, an improvement of almost 9 years since 1990.
According to current projections, further improvements in survival are expected to result in an average
length of life globally of around 77.2 years in 2050. -
While considerable progress has been made in closing the difference in life expectancy at birth between
countries, the gaps remain wide. In 2021, life expectancy in the least developed countries lagged 7.0 years
behind the global average, due largely to persistently high levels of child and maternal mortality and, in
some countries, to violence and conflicts or the continuing impact of the HIV epidemic. Progress in life
expectancy at birth has slowed down in 2020 and 2021 due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Other trends
Women live longer than men
- Life expectancy at birth for women in 2019 exceeded that for men by 5.4 years globally, with female and male life
expectancies standing at 73.8 and 68.4, respectively. A female survival advantage is observed in all regions and
countries, ranging from 7 years in Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.9 years in Australia and New Zealand.
2020 - The first year where population growth was < 1% since 1950
- In 2020, the global population growth rate fell under 1% per year for the first time since 1950. The world’s
population is projected to reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and to remain at that level
until 2100.
More and more countries will see decline in their population
- The populations of 61 countries or areas are projected to decrease by 1% or more between 2022 and 2050,
owing to sustained low levels of fertility and, in some cases, elevated rates of emigration.
Managing Pension and welfare scheme for the growing older population is going to be a big task
This is going to be a big challenge across the globe. Let us take a look at how things are in various states in our country
Source–> RBI Handbook of Stats
As we can see, States like Himachal and Bihar spend 80% and 60% of their tax revenue respectively on pension bills and the numbers are only gonna go up in other states as well unless there are some big drastic changes.
Therefore, it becomes key and prudent on our part to start planning for our own retirement independently from a reasonably early age not depending too much on the government.