Nifty IT has corrected 20% from its top and is technically nearing bear market.
Now, One may wonder what’s causing this defensive sector for all these years to fall this much when the yearly performance of the major companies has been pretty robust. But still, we are witnessing great fall. Lets try to figure out why :
My Observations
I have tried to study and do some research with various folks in the IT industry and these are some of my observations :
1. First and foremost, The major issue that IT companies are facing is supply side constraints. What we are witnessing is major level of attrition levels. In a company like Infy, almost 1 in 3 are leaving the company.
The costs of employee has risen exponentially. Here’s some of the information I got (it would be great if some of you can confirm or deny the same)
Fresher’s who form a large part of any IT company, Their salary which used to be somewhere btwn 2.5 - 3 Lac per annum has now slowly increased to 5-7 Lac per annum. To put things into perspective, people with 5+ years experience used to have such income (btwn 7-10 Lac p.a) before an year or so. Now, these folks are getting offers btwn 15-20 Lac.
So, with the limited amount of information that I have gathered, the average rise is seen somewhere btwn 100-150% which is stretching to 200% in few cases.
We know that salaries are increasing for sure. But, what’s causing the shortage of supply is the mystery part which only folks who are dealing in technical side of the industry will be able to share.
This sudden surge though has some consequences
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The premium factor (low cost workforce) that differentiated and gave an advantage to Indian IT employees and companies with other country workforce is slowly fading away.
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With geopolitical tensions, we are headed to a world where globalisation will not be as straightforward as it was all these years.
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With growing focus on technology, If there is one field which is easily replaceable , It is the services one.
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Increased Competition locally and across the world.
2. With management sounding cautious about the growth as well going forward, It seems like a double whammy for the sector going forward.
3. Money flow seems to be happening in sectors which do well in high Interest rate environment like 2000s.
Would love to hear your insights on the reason for supply shortage in IT Sector.