After a long time I see NIFTY near month Futures less than Spot. Can somebody explain the reason mathematically?

General
2

Here you go - http://zerodha.com/varsity/chapter/futures-pricing/

1 Like
3

Hi Karthik,
I already went through that chapter. As per the chapter, future price is calculated using below formula:
Futures Price = Spot price *(1+ rf – d)
However value of Dividend d should be zero in case of Nifty, and risk free rate rf is a positive value. So mathematically Future price should be greater than Spot Price for Nifty Index. Please correct me if I am wrong.
Thanks,
Snehil

4

Yup, but do remember that the mathematical value is perceived as a fair value, which does not factor in demand and supply. Do remember, futures price movement is also a function of demand and supply. So there would be instances when such inversions happen.

5

Thanks for the explanation Karthik. Trading is a random game indeed!

6

Oh no, snehil, in 1 line you made my career a random affair :). Trading is not a random affair. I would urge you to read this chapter (section 2.1) to know why - http://zerodha.com/varsity/chapter/mindset-investor/