I’ve had a list of stocks I’ve been eyeing, thinking I could grab some good deals and bottom fish, but with all these crazy market swings, I’m second-guessing everything.
One day it’s all red, the next it’s green, and then it flips again the following day.
It’s like I’m frozen, staring at headlights, no clue whether to make a move or just freeze and wait.
Anyone else feeling the same way?
On top of that, is anyone else’s decision-making module completely paralyzed too?
Would love to hear how everyone else is handling this. Are you sticking to your plan, or are you just holding off until things calm down?
Notice how it has always been in the channel since March. Bottom-fish after it has broken out of upper trend line reliably one or two candles outside…Start small as it may come back inside. If it keeps going up, you average on the up move. Moving out of the channel is break of character which has been since march. It may consolidate outside and then start down trend again or up trend again.
There is also another Trendline made by Abid: [POLL][20260317][Jack_R🥇]Where will NIFTY close this expiry? - #4 by BB789 You can draw any line as you wish. What matters is how long price is inside the line and whether it respects it. Whatever be the case, you don’t buy randomly. You change direction only on break of character. It gives you control.
As per my channel, it is not crazy movement and it has always been in one direction since March. The green candles inside the channel didn’t matter. Do you see that?
Bear market or Sideways markets tests & exposes greedy impatient traders from real investors. Never try to time the market , better keep accumulating value stocks with Strong Fundamentals & Technical levels, keeping long term in mind.
You’re not alone … this is exactly how volatility feels in real time. The problem isn’t the market swings, it’s that they force you to make short-term decisions without a clear frame. What’s helped me is separating: what to buy** (decided in calm periods) and when to buy** (executed systematically, not emotionally). Otherwise every red/green day feels like a signal, when it’s mostly noise.
Nobody knows where the bottom is but I feel like the stocks are at a good discount right now. Although I’m not investing at the moment but if I was, I wouldn’t put all my money into the market right now but I would start buying slowly and ramp up as market starts to turn around. Draw a moving average like 50ema on daily chart, once nifty closes above it, we can expect the crash to be over.
You will miss the bottom by atleast 10% if you have to be sure, and then you might wonder if its runup too much in the ST, but then noone gets the bottom anyway.
If NIFTY is going to 30k, it’s ok even if you buy at 26500. But you’ll never know how deep the bottom is until we touch it and go back. Is that a risk someone is willing to take? IMO, It’s ok if you miss the bottom, wherever it might be. Bottomfishing is risky and is no different from F&O gambling… if bought after COVID dip and reversal at 13k, you’d still have more than doubled your money at 26+k. It’s ok to miss the journey from 12k to 7k… Don’t be greedy.
Its all a risk in short term. You can get in on reversal but that reversal might reverse back.
My own feeling is that there is too much belief in stock markets, every one wants to buy on falls.
Everyone says they are in for long term, but it hasnt been tested severely for some time.
Even Covid fall recovered very quickly and that sets in the expectation as we tend to extrapolate from recent past.
Markets were not well priced as per Naren (ICICI). Now we are 10-15% down. Is that enough to be greedy ? I dont think so.
That said, not saying bottom is far away, i have no idea. But this is not a market in capitulation. FIIs are selling and domestically we are buying. Mid and small caps sometimes fall less than large caps. That is not a market gripped by fear.
If u can hold till dec then look at nifty 29 dec expiry .Buy appropriate qty of nifty bees or anything highly correlated to nifty along with atm put and short a otm call. Due to volatility and time ur short call will almost finance ur put with good enough upside.
Yeah, but the current fall took 1+ year to consolidate around 26k levels. If it halves and doubles like before, first it’ll be 16k, then it’ll actually be 50k. I don’t like to predict the top either. Let it consolidate and then fall… May be it’s 30k maybe it’s 28k… maybe it’s 75k… If it rockets, it’ll take time to lose steam… I think that would be a better time to sell.
Yes…Time in bottom also matters… if you are gonna stay invested. Exit fast is a simple strategy, but hard to practice. Most retailers will wait a long time and sell at the absolute bottom…Maybe it’ll be back to 26k in 1 month… maybe in 1 year… maybe in 5 years… Maybe in 10 years… Maybe 20 years…That time ain’t coming back. If it does delay that long, SIPpers will know the time value of options over long term
This is how I deal with it. I get confidence from previous purchases, i visit trades i did during start of Ukraine/Russian conflict or operation sindoor or 2020. Usually when i buy it’s always goes down in short term:).
If I am scared I always go on YouTube to see if Sankaran Naren or Kotak Nilesh Shah spoke recently. They put things in perspective. They always drill down asset allocation and having short expenses covered with debt.
I also read articles remember reading some where that if nifty is negative or no returns for 17 months then next 17 months can have returns ranging from 1 to double digit returns. Although it’s hindsight it helps.
Next i will check if i can meet my needs in near term, my runway.
I also have run max dd scenarios like it’s 2008 so that i know the bandwidth my portfolio can swing.
Experience and some planning , can help us in uncertain times. Hope it helps.
Ps: i bought redington @201.11 today i am sure it goes down in short term … 90% of the time. Mark my words.
thats the only solution…
