Ask me Anything about markets and macroeconomics

AMA (Ask Me Anything)
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Howard Marks, Ed Yardeni, Charlie Munger.
Connecting data to markets, having a sense of history and understanding how businesses make money within an economic framework.
Macro Indicator: None. There is no holy grail.

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Thanks for DSP Netra and the AMA, Sahil

What are your thoughts on the US economy?

  • Interest rates are extremely high. When will the debt burden show up on its citizens and Govt?

  • What do you are the reasons for tight jobs market in US despite higher interest rates and fear of recession?

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Hello Sahil ji @Sahil.Kapoor

Big fan of your brand of research.

For someone like me, who wants to learn the basics of doing research on markets and macroeconomics, what are the steps to follow? Is there any particular path to get good at this over medium to long term?

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Themes or sectors your bullish on in India in next 5-10 yrs?

& 5 themes across d globe

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Thank you. I have covered these in the lastest editin of DSPNetra. (You can read it here: https://www.dspim.com/latest-literature/netra-early-signals-through-charts-sep-2023.pdf)

Interest burden has already begun to show up. Will become significant in the next two quarters.
Strength of the services economy and a delayed recovery coupled with massive stimulus has helped the labour market. However, all these are now unwinding.

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Understand unit level economics of businesses.
Read history.
Avoid F&O and focus on business analysis and then investment analysis.
Invest as if you have only 10 investments to make in your lifetime.

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Healthcare, Autos and BFSI has opportunites. I can’t predict what will happen in the next 10 years. Buy businesses which can make free cash flow, earn over their cost of capital and can survive across business cycles.

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@Sahil.Kapoor Things don’t always seem to be what they are especially when we read about China. interested to know about your insights on what’s happening in China?

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300% debt to GDP
Deflation - both whoelsale and consumer level inflation has turned to deflation
Demographics are deteriorating.

To top this the biggest growth driver, real estate is going through a decadal deleveraging.

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In today’s market EPFO, NPS are putting their large bourse of money every month and this money will stay for longer term. And also a huge influx of retail liquid money participation (including mutual fund route among others). Even when FII were pulling out large amounts out, still the equity market did not fall down.
In such a scenario, the only way market can move is upwards else it will stay static, but never go down. What do you think are the sceanrio where market can go down as these big sources of money will keep putting their money every month?

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Thanks Sahil!