Sahil Kapoor has a wide-ranging experience across asset classes and businesses. I started his career 16 years ago as a research analyst and then as a discretionary trader at Edelweiss markets desk. Later, I moved on to the Wealth Management business. In my career, I have worked on scaling research desks specializing in equities, derivatives, commodities, and currency markets. In my last role at Edelweiss Financial Services, he conceptualized a macroeconomics and markets team specializing in asset allocation, market analytics, and thematic trends.
Currently, I’m the Head – Products and Market Strategist at DSP Mutual Fund, leading the products vertical and helping strengthen the macroeconomic tracking for the investment team.
I also work on a monthly report called DSPNetra that converts raw data into vibrant visuals, offering unfiltered insights that cover global markets, including commodities, stocks, fixed income, and foreign exchange.
What is the value of macro economics while tracking markets? Is it only useful for knowing the direction in the long run or is there some value associated with it even in the short run?
What are the do’s and don’ts a beginner or an intermediate learner of macroeconomics should keep in mind while using this analysis to invest in markets? Top 3 dos and 3 don’ts according to you. Thanks
Hi Sahil, do you feel investing in PSU based mutual funds would be a good idea in upcoming years(5years) because i feel that most of the PSU’s have a lot of cash and are undervalued in terms of valuation
Depopulation, especially when combined with low migration into a country, significantly slows economic growth. However, this may not always be the case, as productivity tends to increase for nations that have reached a plateau in population growth, and per capita income can also rise for such nations. When discussing this subject broadly, a growing population (not exploding) tends to have a positive impact on growth, provided that other levers of productivity are in place.
Thank you. The idea behind DSPNetra and our data-driven approach is to place the present within the context of the past. Unfortunately, investing today has become a shareholders’ den. Investors speak to management, listen to earnings conference calls, and read P&L/BS online, believing that they can achieve outsized gains. However, this may not always be the case. Our endeavor is to combine macroeconomics and microeconomics to understand how businesses generate profits, secure sustainable cash flows, and assess the economic backdrop that facilitates this. If our analysis helps answer these questions, it is useful; otherwise, it’s a waste of time.
Don’t rely solely on labels such as macroeconomics, fundamentals, or technicals. These labels have been created by the industry to sell services and lack a solid foundation in reality. They are, at best, classification standards for tagging names.
Ultimately, it’s all about connecting the dots from the economic environment to the business cycle, enabling an entity to generate cash flows and earn returns exceeding its cost of capital.
PSU’s are a tactical bet, especailly when they are cheap. Most PSU’s DO NOT earn over thier cost of capital overtime. Hence, be cautious and selective.
Last week or before the US Fed Chairman spoke hawkish and yet equity markets seem to be ripping. What is the right way to understand interest rates and equity markets?
What are the different ways the central bank can influence the markets - interests rates (Which rates exactly do they influence?), direct buying/selling in the bond markets?
I see there is a 6-to-12-month lag between GDP growth and equity market returns on a quarterly basis, how exactly should one understand this lag?
How to understand the cross correlations between asset classes practically?
Resources you would suggest to understand commodities (especially precious metals and crude oil)
Based on the market cycle how should asset allocation be made? Like say based on interest rates how should allocation change for fixed income/ equity. Like when should we be buying/selling bonds, buying/selling equities based on the macroeconomic cycle.
How much money we can borrow from family or friends and trade for them to give them a percentage of the profit annually and rest keeping it with us. Is there an amount limit for doing this without registering this as a company like below 25 lakhs or something like that ? Or is it illegal to do this as per SEBI regulations ?
In light of the rising interest rates, looming inflation, and discussions of a potential recession, how would you advise someone keen on entering the equity markets, especially when they seem to be peaking? Additionally, could you recommend other investment vehicles that might serve as effective hedges against these risks?
Thanks for your time
just want to know if you were entering the markets today, how would you structure your portfolio .
What were your biggest mistakes and lessons in context with markets in general and macros in particular and best highlights in your 16 year long journey in markets?
Biggest mistake: Over trading and devoting too much time looking at charts and options pricing.
Lessons: There is no alternative to long term compounding. Take care of the risk and survive, quality will deliver returns.
Highlights: None, its a long journey.
Thank you. Indian Rupee may see some weakness in the near term. But on an ongoing basis, our external situation in improving anf macroeconomic aggregates favour a more stable Rupee. India’s infaltion differential with the west have fallen and real rates are also better in comparison. Investment flows into India are also stable. These factors should result in a less volatiel currency than the past. We need to watch out for any major disruption in energy prices which is the source of vulnerability for India.
