Axis Bank & Art of producing best movement on worst results

So the topic is self explanatory.

Anybody want to add anything? Any experience from traders who went short / long yesterday

I was short on it today and got HUGE loss

I don’t call myself experienced or anything. But I did buy Axis today during pre-market. I was expecting profit booking for those who took positional short and short covering for those went short yesterday. I don’t intend to hold it…will square off at the end of the day.

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Sad to hear that

Good result & Maruti is sold off – probably this is not strange.

But Axis spiking from -3% to +8% is abnormal with such bad results. Question is did Axis board intended to help some insider (may be some PE funds who r on their board) to accumulate more stakes at lower price?

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yesterday i was long on axis bank (bought @ day’s low). then i came to know that axis bank is to announce the results and i was expecting bad results so took small profit and exited it.

yes today’s move after the bad results is suspicious. SEBI must investigate it as this move clearly shows the trap from the insider traders.


the institutions took short positions from jan itself and when the results come out they liquidate. Hence the price has shot up.

The retail trading community are fools to initiate positions on earnings now. Institutions use this very liquidity provided by the foolish retail traders to exit their positions.

I would say institutions made anywhere from 15-20% on this earnings.

Institutional traders look forward and trade while retail trades look backward and trade and hence they lose majority of time. But as long as retail traders believe in psychology they should keep “winning” . Hehe.


PE funds hv been allotted axis bank shares arnd 540-565Rs during Oct-Dec17 in return fr debt. So, i think they wud always lookout fr defending their price lvls. Along with that they saw huge short side buildup from April n rollover into May. They might hv used that fact n gave an initial kick at the start. Everything might hv fell in place as per their play.

It is just a pure Art of Speculation! :upside_down_face:

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Regarding Maruti, automakers as such wud not be fancy ones in higher fuel cost & higher interest rate scenario…
I think they wud gain their prominence during 2019 elections :wink:

if everyone is expecting a worst result , then the worst results are factored in already ( axis 550 to 490 levels in the last 1 week ) …
results has to be extremely bad to make it to tank in a market where cash is available at low interest rates


I think analyst expextation was net profit to the tune of INR 7billion or so. So it was a huge miss btw.

as a trader with no additional information we shld go by result reaction than predicting the reaction :slight_smile:

the loss is because if they write off most potential defaults than keeping it in NPA …
after the results GDR was flat in rupee terms than it was showing any knee jerk reaction

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one of my worst expereince was i had bearish call spread on ICICI bank expecting to make some buck after the result because of vix implosion …
icici gave bad result and it was down 5% in adr … next day it opened moderately -ve ( i thought of waiting till EOD ) and it closed 5% up …

reasons like this made me to wait for the result or any event reaction rather than wasting our time analysisng the results ( there are fw instances where results will be extremely good or severly bad which we can guess )

Well based on what you said - I can draw multiple analogies. For instance - Yes bank should have gone down yesterday rather than being 10 percent up as institutional traders must have bought it at 300 or so by looking fwd and anticipating improved results and they would have booked profit.

further more, axis bank shouldn’t even have formed a sharp tail on the screen a day before the result because as per your analogy more institutions must have placed s shorts considering bad results.

Maruti should have gone up today rather than being 4 percent down from today’s high as institutions must have looked fwd and placed bearish bets in advance and therefore they would have covered their shorts and stock should have gone up.

There can be many examples and we can keep talking.

But the fact is it is totally difficult to anticipate such kind of moves. It is all the more difficult to anticipate what a particular fund manager or a institutional trader in a corner of the world feels about that stock at that point in time and interprets data available.