Bear market rally v/s Buying the dip

If we look at the business channels or social media currently, we are now more often than not hearing about this being a bear market and the rally that we are having from last one week is a pullback rally in a bear market.

@Tar in his tweet has shared some interesting stat :

https://twitter.com/itsTarH/status/1532175752065470466

This may not be a popular opinion, But, I don’t agree that we are in a bear market. I believe we are in a consolidation phase in a bull market. (I’m assuming the time frame of these views is 6-12 months and not really too short like 30 days or 3-5 years :slight_smile: )

Here’s my rationale behind it :

Regular corrections(which are part of bull markets) are what makes stock market different from other asset classes. They can be sharp or painfully slow.

Correction (as per my limited understanding ) is broadly two kinds…

  • Price correction : While some argue that any dip more than 10% from its highs , makes it a bear market, many say it is 20%.

  • Time correction : A scenario where prices are in a range with a slightly downward bias for months.

Going broadly by the above definitions, we are definitely in a correction and it is a combination of both price and time correction which is bound to happen after the 100% move in index in 18 months. With local economy showing resilience with strong numbers with good tax numbers, deleveraged balance sheets, good credit growth and adding to that even valuations coming to historically reasonable levels.

This makes me believe that this is a consolidation phase in a bull market rather than beginning of a big bear market.

How do you see this current phase in market?

Just look at Nifty monthly chart and you will see a bull flag.
There was some pressure at lows recently but it has held alright. Its a pattern on monthly so can take some months to resolve, can fail too. But yes, i also look at this as consolidation after large rally for now.
A bear market might be more likely if this pattern fails clearly and we start getting momentum on downside + sell the rallys in smaller timeframes.