Blackswan event on 04/05/2022

Hi @nithin

if we dont watch the news…suddenly news comes from any direction like todays todays RBI policy and inflation all the gains earned over months lost in 1 day

Today taken naked call for Buy position…suddenly market reverses and lost 30,000RS

is this RBI fault:) without planned event annouced rate hike…and inflation worries

Am i wrong taking naked position? your Advice?

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This is no blackswan. You should learn to use options for hedging than gambling.

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Taking naked calls is not gambling based on the technical analysis…suddenly market reverses for RBI policy…today is not RBI decision date…Many analysts tell not to watch news due to noise…How do we handle such events then without news watch

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Losing is part of trading. And this is nowhere near a black swan event. If it is for you, then you are risking too much.
You need an edge whether its naked buy, naked sell or hedged sell. Naked buy is probably as safe as you can be at single trade level with defined loss.

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Naked weekly option buying for the day

Is this gambling ? No it is not. It is a systematic process based on direction of Nifty. Was holding puts for last few days based on the system.

So ask yourself if your decision to buy was based on the probabilities of a well tested system. If its not with out clear entry, exit and money management framework then it is gambling. If it is then you would know that losses are part of trading. One has to accept the red to bag the green.

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Technical Analysis is like horoscope. For some it works :slight_smile:

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Use STOP LOSS

Decide how much capital you are willing to loose and then set stop loss.

Only Stoploss is the rescue for blackswan event.

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SL may jump in case there is a sudden fall…i had an SL in the system, and it had jumped due to sudden volatility…by the time I revised to market order…damage to order was already done

Stop loss is a request not an order :slight_smile:

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I know that. Its better to be clear about risk and reward and hence placing sell order with target and stop loss is good thing to do.
Kindly reply to the questions and not to other people replies. :pray:

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Look in to the controversy regarding ayanamsa and you will probably appreciate why horoscope and its interpretation works for some and why it doesn’t work for some. Technical analysis need to be seen from a similar perspective :joy: :laughing:

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did you put SL-M or SL limit?

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Yeah the Price action was rage behavior around 2:00 pm( sudden up and than sudden fall) . It can happen any day even when there is no news. so best is put Stop loss order asap if its slips for some reason exit market asap. Unfortunately, this is the price to work in Market. SLL with 1rs gap usually don’t get slip

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It is okay to take naked option positions, but you need to know how much of your portfolio will you take a risk with. If you had Rs 1lk, will you buy lottery tickets worth Rs 1lk? No, right? Option buying is almost as risky as that. :slight_smile:

While the maximum you can lose is equal to the premium, how fast you can lose is based on the contract value. So if you pay Rs 1lk of premium and buy 20 lots of Nifty or 1.5 crores worth of Nifty, how fast you can lose your 1lk can be gauged by looking at Rs 1.5 crores. Which will give you a sense of how fast you can lose.

If you are buying naked options, don’t trade with more than 5% of your trading capital. Today isn’t a black swan, what happened today can happen any day. Black swan days your option would have gone to 0 in no time.

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Let’s analyse the NIFTY 50 chart based on Technical Analysis =>

  1. Weekly time frame: consolidating for past 3-4 months since the HIgh at 18600, and forming a Descending Broadening Wedge formation
  2. Daily time frame: bearish trend, bearish engulfing pattern closing below 200 DMA
  3. Hourly time frame: A symmetric triangle formation, likely to give bottom breakout [based on weekly and daily chart analysis].

Let’s Analyse the BANKNIFTY chart based on Technical Analysis =>

  1. Weekly time frame: Consolidating in a parallel channel
  2. Daily time frame: way below 200DMA, bearish trend
  3. Hourly time frame: deep parallel channel, currently at top of the channel with imminent resistance at the top

Therefore, there was no reason to buy a naked call option. Moreover a Bear put spread would have given considerable profit for the day.

Always a good idea to focus on price action over news.
As, all the news is already acted upon the market, and PRICE IS KING

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Hi @nithin

you can lose is equal to the premium, how fast you can lose is based on the contract value. So if you pay Rs 1lk of premium and buy 20 lots of Nifty or 1.5 crores worth of Nifty, how fast you can lose your 1lk can be gauged by looking at Rs 1.5 crores

Can you explain a little bit more on the above topic…Didn’t understand

Today is not an RBI policy day…Daily bank nifty average was 200 to 500 points up or down…if we don’t watch the news how to know what happened on sudden volatility

in 1 candle losing, 300 points were very higher compared to a daily average

is it possible to have the option go to zero before the weekly expiry (Thursday)? in black swan event

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Nithin meant near zero, not exactly zero. It could become 1 Rs. or 0.5 Rs before expiry day.

On the other hand, 5 Rs. option could also become 500 or 1000.

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https://twitter.com/CNBCTV18News/status/1520697032364670977

Had spoken on this a bit here ^.

When people buy options, the only thing they think about is the maximum you can lose and potential gains. What most people don’t consider is, how fast you can lose the money. To figure how fast you can lose the money, you need to look at the contract value and compare your premium value. If your premium value is 1% of contract value, you will get a sense of how risky that trade is and hence maybe risk much lesser capital.

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Virendar Sehwag saw the ball and hit the ball, became one of the best test openers without moving his feet much. Viv Richards had an open stance and hit the ball across the line terrorising the mighty fast bowlers of his era.

Theories flock around. The proof is always in the pudding. As Anuj puts it in the video the six is not hit by the bat but by the batsman. The guy punching in orders is the one that matters. Everything else is just individual perspective.

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