Lula’s re-election has triggered a sharp sell-off in Brazilian assets as investors unwind bets on a political shift. Pre-election rally: Brazilian stocks rose nearly 7%
Post Election:
- Brazilian real futures: −10%
- Brazil ETF (EWZ): nearly −20% in overnight trading
- Pre-election rally: Ibovespa gained ~7% after the first round
- Brazil public debt: above 82% of GDP
Investors are concerned about government spending, rising debt and future interest rates. This looks like a sharp reaction to political expectations. The next big signal will be the government’s fiscal plan and its approach to debt.
