These 2 stocks are trading below the levels of pre merger news.
I think we may see some bounce back from these zones. A small dead catish bounce, What the impact is gonna be in the medium term needs good amount of research and analysis. I will try to share my findings on this soon.
This is classic example of Gap filling. You can check the history of the stock and it’s evident from the chart, any gap up’s or significant gap downs have been filled in the next 1-2 week and then the trend has continued.
Significant News based gaps are considered as major supports and they are not easily broken like usual gap filling 
As we can see, it didnt just end there
From fundamental point of view, I see this as a buying oppurtunity. I have already started accumulating HDFC
Same with IT sector too. I find IT sector attractive at these levels.
Are you an investor or trader ?
Both. I trade using fundamentals. I know its weird but it works for me. 
definitely not weird
Not weird. It’s the oldest trick in the book.
Would only be lil weird if you did it for very short term trades - (intraday to 5 days)
Then I wasnt aware. Happy to know I am normal. Because I thought the ones who trade in options use technical analysis. And I dont believe in techicals at all. Anyways. Different things work for different people.
I meant more about Stock Futures that are held weeks to months, those are techno funda trades for many.
Infact both Options and Futures have a big element of Technicals because of the leverage factor that can accentuate losses. I am sure you yourself don’t bank on only funda when a short option goes majorly against you.
Thats what I was saying. Only fundamentals. For example. In May 2020 HUL was around 2200. I was ready to full lot in delivery. I bought a lot of futures and sold 2500call. Every month I keep rolling to next month. Last month when it fell to 1900 i closed futures and bought in cash. Now i just sell 2500call. In this 2 years HUL had a range of 1800 to 2800. I have just kept rolling for 2 years. I keep selling higher calls.
I have no stop losses at all.
When it comes to nifty also i do the same thing. I am always ready for delivery at the levels I want. Till then i keep selling puts. If it doesnt come to my level I retain premium. If it does I either convert them to futures or buy niftybees.
When we had a crash on Feb 24 I was short at 16500put. After that it went to 15800. I just bought futures and waited. My logic is some day or the other market has to come up only. Till then I have no problem in holding. But yes I will keep selling calls.
Doesnt make sense to me. I feel there is always a 50percent chance for market to move either ways. I believe in random walk theory.
I know all the technical parameters, patterns, moving avgs bla bla bla. But can you tell me with 100percent garantee that it will work?
I can tell you 100 percent that nifty will hit all time high again. Do not ask me when.
It may not work for others. But for me it does.
There is no holy grail, no pattern will work 100%. Roughly more like 60-40 to say 40-60 depending on trade management and this 50-50 average can become more like 10-90 in short painful periods. And yeah even systems can stop working. So uncertainty is always there and we need to adapt. Not everything in ‘TA’ works and some are perhaps superstitions, But trading does work, very simple things can work, and so far from my limited experience we can beat the index easily in returns/max DD. With competition, that might get tougher in future, dont know - but at the least it can give uncorrelated income which has value on its own - perhaps similar to selling options for you when are ready to take/give delivery.
And no guarantee that Nifty will rise in say next 5 years either. It usually does but no certainty, Japan high did not break for long time, even US markets did not break dot com high for 10 odd years, China not working well for last 10 years i think.
Even Indian markets, adjusted to USD, did not do particularly well in last decade before covid - Look at EPI index in tradingview - monthly chart. Hopefully, next 10 years India will outperform now., Best to diversify in the long run.
So your main strategy is doing covered calls and writing puts with intention of taking delivery?
I knew Japan example would be quoted for this even before I replied above. Well. Let it take 20 years from now. I am comfy with that too. Thats long term investing for me. If I had just bought index funds I would have waited right. Here whatever extra premium I get by selling options is extra. Moreover I keep averaging nifty as well.
At 17500 I put in only 20 percent of my capital. My next 20 percent goes at 17000. Then may be I will give gap of another 2k points if it falls further before I avg more. So that way for my current capital I have it planned till nifty falls to 10k. And if nifty falls to 10k my avg would be around 14k.
What more to diversify? I already have exposure to 50 stocks of nifty. In addition to these I have a stock portfolio. I have SGB and debt funds too.
I do not want to get into trading using techicals. I am scared I will not in those 1percent who actually make money.
Yes. Initially I started with stocks. The returns were very good. But then I realised stocks can take 10 years or even more to come back to highs. Like imagine i had short yes back 350 put when it was at 400. So then i switched to index. I do not think it will ever be 0. For now comfy with 2 percent per month which works out to around 30percent on annualised basis after considering monthly compounding effect and the return from pledged debt funds.
So, do you buy futures or niftybees during averaging of nifty, because if you average it down to 10k (worst case scenario) you would need at least 1 crore rupees to take delivery through niftybees.
yes, very long term diversified portfolio + dalio type diversification esp post retirement ( I think they also consider commodities, but not sure how to implement that) + buy diversified market on dips is enough along with another source of income. There is no real work involved and anyone with a job/business can do this to make some money over inflation. No need to waste time in trading, And with 30%, that’s very very good if you can sustain long term. No need for anything else. 99% people should just do this.
I have been an investor for much longer vs profitable trading. Hopefully trading will continue to work and in future i will likely move back to investing ( with TA )
Trading is just another profession with a lot of work + lot of uncertainty built in and no easy money. But it works and it can be fun too. TA gets a bad name because a lot of things don’t really work + people don’t do the work and expect easy money + its emotionally tough too esp at the start when you don’t know how trading works. If you get a good source, i think it will still take atleast 2 perhaps 4-5 years before you can get some handle on it. And then you still need to have good capital as we don’t really make say 500% returns …
I buy futures at first. But if there is big fall from there i switch to bees.
I had sold 17500put in Dec series. I kept rolling it till feb expiry. On feb expiry day nifty went to 16200. I switched to niftybees. Now selling calls on weekly basis.
The capital required if nifty falls to 10k is much more than what you have mentioned.
I do not have time for trading. I am into some other things too. So actually if you see I am not a trader. Its just that I use derivatives.
